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  • St Leger Festival | You’re my Wonderwall – The Top Three

    St Leger Festival | You’re my Wonderwall – The Top Three

    It’s day two of the 2023 St Leger Festival and having kept my powder dry yesterday, three horses are firmly on my agenda to finish off the working week in good style.

    Hopefully, this year’s three-day event at Doncaster can prove to be as equally profitable as the York Ebor festival because if this is the case, we should have no problems.

    So, here are the three horses to consider today.

     

    1:50 Doncaster – War Rooms @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I’m starting the St Leger Festival with a confident play as there’s no getting away from War Rooms at 2/1 in the Listed Flying Childers Stakes.

    Trained by Owen Burrows, an operation that doesn’t waste many bullets at these big festivals, this Churchill colt is one of two once-raced two-year-olds in the contest having shown a great turn of foot over course and distance on soft ground in late July.

    What was striking from this victory was how he was able to pull nearly five lengths clear of the second within the final furlong-and-a-half in the conditions.

    Furthermore, although his sire Churchill was a ground versatile horse, the American-bred side of his pedigree initially suggests that quicker ground would be more to his liking, especially with a damsire of Aptitude.

    However, his three winning siblings – Herring Island, Rhinestone, and Aduna – all have great soft ground form; Rhinestone was even a valiant runner-up on soft in the 2018 Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper at Leopardstown.

    War Rooms’ breeding suggests that he could stay further in time, so today’s seven furlongs on rain-softened ground should be right up his street, making him a good play in the second race at Doncaster.

     

    3:20 Chester – Wonderwall @ 6/4 General – 3pt Win

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    Over at Chester, a horse that will be popular with Oasis fans is Wonderwall at the head of the market for the two-mile handicap.

    The multi-purpose gelding by Yeats has been a regular in the national hunt scene for the last few years, notably when successful over the now 142-rated City Chief by three lengths in a maiden hurdle at Doncaster before his fall at the last hurdle in the 2022 Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle when looking like a winner.

    Connections gave him a 288-day lay-off from the track until the Grade 2 Coral Racing Club Novices’ Chase at Newbury in late 2022 where he travelled extremely well into the race before fading on a quick ground.

    So, in the jumps code, he is a very classy horse. Even when racing in bumpers as a four and five-year-old, he won on debut at Ascot on soft, finished third to Knappers Hill on soft in a Listed bumper at the same course and then ran a good race to finish seventh behind the likes of Sir Gerhard, Kilcruit, Three Stripe Life and Grangee in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper.

    Since switching to the Flat, all three of his runs since the start of July have been over an inadequate trip of 12 furlongs, so this hike in distance to two miles should see him to best effect.

    Wonderwall holds a Cesarewitch entry for later this year and is currently 33/1 for that, so if today goes well, connections could be packing their bags for a trip to Newmarket in October.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Quantum Leap @ 6.1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, the concluding race on ITV from Doncaster today is the £60,000 Mallard Handicap, a contest that should set up nicely for the slow-starting Quantum Leap under Callum Rodriguez.

    The four-year-old by New Approach must be a frustrating horse for trainer Edward Bethell – who is running at a 43% strike rate and recently won the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock – as in all four of his appearances on track, he has failed to break from the stalls with any intent.

    Despite this, the 19,000gns purchase has been successful in 50% of his races to date, most recently at Haydock on good-to-soft ground when making up a plethora of lengths to win comfortably.

    The handicapper slapped an extra five pounds onto his official rating after the run, so there seems to be plenty of wiggle room left off 87, especially when you consider that he beat Aztec Empire on debut who is now rated 93 and has good form with Sweet William.

    In what looks to be a winnable race, not many of his competitors look well-handicapped on their current mark, yet Quantum Leap does and should be feared for the in-form Bethell operation.

  • St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: No Rane On His Parade

    St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: No Rane On His Parade

    What a start to the St Leger Festival for the column. Two winners plus a running on second puts us firmly in the driving seat for Day Two. Today, the feature is the Doncaster Cup where we could see another dual winner in the history of the race, which dates back further than the St Leger. There’s also a couple more 2-Y-O races to cover on the card in Four To Follow.

     

    Dance Battle

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    1:50 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) – War Rooms @ 11/4 (Betfred)

    Racing at Town Moor yesterday was slow. The 2-Y-O selling race was the second slowest in its history, which shows you the extent of how much the rain has got in. There’s a bit more rain forecast overnight but it shouldn’t’ be softer than yesterday. This will incline punters to stick with soft ground horses, and the favourite is just that. He scorched clear of C&D in June, and was pulled out at Haydock last Saturday due to the ground, and he’s got his ground here today. Trainer Owen Burrows has entries for him in the Dewhurst and the Futurity at the end of the season and is clearly one to keep an eye at three.

    Another that can perform on the soft ground is Dancing Gemini. A winner at Newbury on good-to-soft, he steps up in grade but not by much and is the perfect progression step for Roger Teal’s two-year-old. The form has been franked with two winners out of the Newbury maiden next time out, and those that raced next time out came in the top three. Dancing Gemini has a very good chance of outrunning her 17/2 (William Hill) odds.

     

    Bermuda To Brighten

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    2:25 – Flying Childers Stakes (Group Two) – Flora Of Bermuda @ 7/1 (William Hill)

    Looking at some of the trainers comments, some are quizzical about the ground particularly Big Evs. This news opens the door to other runners down the order and Flora OF Bermuda can put on another good showing today. She won by four lengths in the mud at Goodwood, and won’t mind the ground one jot at Doncaster on Friday. Her ground preference was evident when finishing last at York in the Lowther, but she’s back in calmer waters and can sail past those struggling with the ground.

    At a price, and a good name, Graceful Thunder has won three races this season all with soft in the title. The best of those was a class two maiden at Beverley and has gone since to win a Listed contest and was narrowly beaten in a Group Three, both in France. George Boughey enjoyed a 2-Y-O winner yesterday with Chic Columbine and has an outside chance with Graceful Thunder at 14/1 (Betfred)

     

     

    Ding Donny Battle

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    3:00 – Betfred Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group Two) – Coltrane @ 6/4 (Betfred)

    Coltrane has started to kick into gear this season and his Lonsdale Cup victory was mightily impressive. He was ever so tough to hold off Trueshan last year, in similar conditions. However, we just don’t know which version of him we’re going to see as it’s his first run after a wind op.

    Both will enjoy the ground, there’s no doubt, but Coltrane has to carry a penalty for this race which gives Trueshan a chance. But I have to come down on the side of the horse that has performed admirably, and that is Coltrane.

     

    Legendary Bet

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    3:35 – Betfred Mallard Handicap – Legendary Day @ 15/2 (Betfred)

    In terms of a handicap, it’s a poor turnout. Eight runners at this level is disappointing, but it’s what we have to deal with. But despite the lack of challengers, it’s an intriguing race. The Goat is the one to beat with his 12 length romp in the Goodwood mud still fresh in the bookies minds. He didn’t run a bad race in the Melrose, finishing in midfield on ground he’s not keen on has to go noticed.

    But I feel Legendary Day will give him a big challenge. He’s ground versatile and can stay over further, which will be crucial here. His performance at the Ebor Festival was fantastic, finishing third. Mark Winn is a jockey I have a lot of time for and take three pounds off to give him an attractive mark of 83, the same mark he won over two miles with.

    The very best of luck!

  • St. Leger Festival | Three To Follow: May Or May Not

    St. Leger Festival | Three To Follow: May Or May Not

    It’s the start of the Festival that celebrates the oldest Classic in the calendar. The St. Leger Festival at Doncaster is always a fantastic meeting, and there are four days of excellent racing action, kicking off with two Group Two’s today in, a short and sweet, Three To Follow.

     

    Leading Into Battle

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    2:55 – Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes – Dragon Leader @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    Big field two-year-old races are, more often than not, a minefield for punters. But this particular race falls quite nicely in the calendar to have a go at. Most of the winning form comes from York’s two-year-old races, whether that be the Gimcrack, the Harry Beeby or the Nurseries.

    Dragon Leader is thrice unbeaten, including scorching to victory in the Harry Beeby at York last time out. He’s ended up with a surprisingly low weight, which will be beneficial for him to perform on what may be soft ground, since a bit of rain has been forecast in Yorkshire this afternoon. William Buick takes over from Ryan Moore who is Johannes Brahms.

    One who will appreciate juice in the ground is Flaccianello. After the fallout from Kevin Stott and Amo Racing earlier in the week, Cam Hardie gets the nod from Richard Fahey. Hardie has ridden and won on him on debut, and crucially won a nursery on soft ground last time out with plenty in hand and looks the each-way danger at 16/1 (Betfred).

    There’s one at a big price which I really interested me, Grey Cuban for Hugo Palmer. His last run wasn’t his best, but blame the ground for that run as everything happened at quite a pace. His previous two runs came on good-to-soft, and the form from his run at Nottingham has worked out a treat. Five winners have come out of that race, including four on their next start. Danny Tudhope enjoyed a profitable weekend in Ireland, and can pull a shock off here at 40/1 (William Hill).

     

    Darn Far Too Hot

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    3:00 – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Darnation @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    I watched this horse in person when she broke her maiden at Thirsk. She won by ten lengths and I had a feeling that she would take the Group race route. She has the makings of (whisper it quietly) a potential Guineas winner. Her win in the Prestige at Goodwood affirmed my beliefs and now she comes to Doncaster, on ground she will relish. Clifford Lee rode her on her ten-length victory and has the ability to do it again, but with an appreciable step up in trip.

     

    Sumo To Sparkle

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    3:35 – Betfred Park Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Sumo Sam @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    A race for the staying fillies’ over the St. Leger distance may seem appealing, but this year’s renewal looks hard to decipher. I’ve gone for those who have stayed the trip well over 14 furlongs, as that covers most of the distance (excluding the half furlong). Sumo Sam fits the brief, winning over said distance last time out in bottomless ground at Goodwood. The soft ground won’t be problem to her and can showcase her talents with Rossa Ryan in the saddle.

    But Night Sparkle also drew my eye in this open looking race. She’s running for the fiest time under Andrew Balding, and a horse moving to a top stable like his should not go unnoticed. She’s three from three, but is markedly stepping up in grade after winning two class three handicaps on the spin. But she’s won with dig in the ground and isn’t without an each-way shout at 8/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    It’s the turn of the future stars of the track at the Curragh today, as Day Two of the Irish Champions Festival dawns upon us. Two heavyweights of the O’Brien stable tussle each other in the National Stakes, whilst it looks a bit more open in the Moyglare. Here’s a Sunday Special of Four to Follow.

     

    Power Over Princess

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    2:55 – Flying Five Stakes (Group One) – Art Power @ 5/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    For some time on Best Of Bets, Highfield Princess has been the go-to horse for us. The story, the speed, all of it she’s been a revelation of the sprinting world. But she’s been hitting the frame this year, and I’m more interested in winners and that leads me to Art Power. Unbeaten at the Curragh, that course form is significant above the other horses.

    He’s five from five, and has performed at Group One level too, his best performance was finishing third in the 2021 Diamond Jubilee. With all that in mind, and with Highfield Princess just not cutting the mustard in three Group One’s this season, Art Power is the perfect Curragh champion.

     

    Fortuna Favours The Brave

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    3:25 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

    Ylang Ylang is all the talk, but looking on her performance in the Silver Flash didn’t look as convincing as it might have seen. She made all but Vespertillo was closing all the time, and without pace in the race Yland Ylang is vulnerable. Porta Fortuna isn’t.

    A Royal Ascot winner, beating Matrika who won the Airlie Stud Stakes next time out, she finished well behind the colt Bucanero Fuerte in the Phoenix Stakes. Stepping up in trip will be beneficial, and with no boys to face she may have an easier task. Frankie Dettori is always an eye-catching booking, and won’t want to leave Ireland empty handed.

     

    Fuerte To Forte

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    4:00 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group One) – Bucanero Fuerte @ 9/2 (888Sport)

    Who is the only Group One winner in the field? Bucanero Fuerte. Who won by four lengths in a Group One? Bucanero Fuerte. Who is massively overpriced for the race? Bucanero Fuerte. For me he holds all the aces. Even if Aidan O’Brien has two fantastic looking two-year-olds, according to Seamie Heffernan, they’re not. To accentuate my point further, O’Brien hasn’t won this race since Churchill back in 2016. The fact that a Group One winning two-year-old is bigger 3/1 makes no sense to me. It’ll be a fascinating race nonetheless.

     

    King Of The Curragh

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    4:35 – Irish St. Leger (Group One) – Kyprios @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    We’ve missed Kyprios this year in the staying division. His talents last season were incredible, and there seems to be a void needing to be filled this year. Courage Mon Amis never came on from the Ascot Gold Cup, and we’ve had a lack of dominance. But the return for Kyprios heralds a return to normality, and even at 90% he can put his stablemate Emily Dickinson into submission. Aidan O’Brien might have a great crop of two-year-olds, but he has a shining jewel here, and Kyprios is back to defend his Irish St. Leger title the Curragh.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend has already been one to remember, not just because of the horses, but purely thanks to Jerry Hannon’s commentary for the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes.

    All jokes aside, yesterday was an enjoyable watch from post to pillar and for The Top Three readers, we were a head away from landing an 8/1 winner in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes.

    Alas, it wasn’t to be and with Gallant Lion’s slight disappointment at Ascot alongside Urban Sprawl’s tame effort in the last at Leopardstown, we are searching for a winner today.

    So, with some brilliant races ahead of us, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Curragh – Insinuendo @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first Group race of the day is the Blandford Stakes and back for another bite at the cherry is Insinuendo having run into Above The Curve – a future four-time Group 1-placed mare for Aidan O’Brien – in last year’s renewal.

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    The six-year-old by Gleneagles has been the stable star for Willie McCreery for several years and over the last 12 months, she has taken connections to Champions Day at Ascot and as well as the Bahrain International Trophy.

    Despite her age in a contest that includes eight three-year-olds, meaning she will give away six pounds to them, she is the one with the best form in the book.

    Firstly, she gave five pounds away to Luxembourg – a future Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes winner – in last year’s Group 3 Royal Whip when only beaten by a neck.

    Two months later, she rocked up at 80/1 in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes and put in a remarkable effort on a slightly unfavourable good-to-soft surface to finish third to Emily Upjohn.

    Following an average run in the Bahrain International Trophy, she began this season with a comfortable success over a mile on soft-to-heavy ground at the Curragh; considering her best form is over 10 furlongs on good ground, this run can be marked up.

    With two victories at the course and some good efforts in defeat over course and distance, Insinuendo looks to be a cracking each-way bet in the Blandford Stakes and thanks to her two-month break from the track, she should be fresh and ready to go.

     

    3:25 Curragh – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes is a fascinating contest with nine runners set to head under the starter’s orders.

    As with juvenile races at this time of the year, plenty in here could unleash potential ability that they have yet to fully show, however, without knowing what will happen for sure, Porta Fortuna is the solid option at 15/2.

    Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, she has the unenviable task of taking on his dad’s Ylang Ylang at the head of the market as well as Willie McCreery’s Vespertillo who was second to today’s even-money favourite before her success in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes last month.

    That being said, Porta Fortuna is definitely the form horse of the contest thanks to her second to Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time out, a performance that can be marked up as she raced predominantly on the near side which was slightly unfavourable throughout the day.

    Prior to that run, she was sent off a well-backed 5/1 for the Group 3 Albany Stakes and won impressively under Frankie Dettori – who will get the leg up today – and the form of that race has been boosted thanks to Matrika’s Group 2 win on her next start.

    Furthermore, out of the Holy Roman Emperor mare Too Precious, a winner over 1m4f, today’s seven-furlong trip looks a step in the right direction and even though her sire is the brilliant sprinter Caravaggio, he has had more runners and winners between seven and nine furlongs than in the sprinting distances since his first crop hit the track in 2021.

    Of course, the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes looks like a tough race to win, but the form horse is Porta Fortuna and she is a big price at 13/2.

     

    4:00 Curragh – Bucanero Fuerte @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes is my race of the weekend based on pure excitement levels as the potential clash of City Of Troy, Bucanero Fuerte, and Henry Longfellow is mouthwatering.

    Although the Aidan O’Brien-trained first-string is a well-fancied favourite, I’m willing to go against the Ballydoyle pair with Bucanero Fuerte.

    Although City Of Troy’s performance to beat Haatem by six lengths in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes was visually impressive, I think that the form of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes victory is better and Adrian Murray’s Wootton Bassett colt he made all on his side of the track – despite the attempted implementation of a pacemaker with stablemate Launch – was no small feat.

    Luckily for connections, owner and stablemate Cuban Thunder is next to Bucanero Fuerte in stall four today, so he will have an easy lead into the contest.

    So on form, he has a good chance, but what about his step up to seven furlongs?

    A glance at his pedigree shows that his full-brother Wooded started life as a seven-furlong horse and was successful on his second start at the trip, finished fourth to Pinatubo in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, and then won the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye over five furlongs on his final career start.

    His other half-brother, Beat Le Bon, won the 2019 edition of the valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood and has since placed over two miles in America over hurdles, so his pedigree would suggest today’s trip should be no problem.

    At 4/1 against a 4/7 favourite, he looks like a good price for his quality and hopefully, he can produce a stunning performance at the Curragh.

  • Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    As we approach the end of the season (and the start of the jumps!), the stars are all reappearing for one final hurrah! First up is Irish Champions weekend, and we head to Leopardstown for a tasty looking Irish Champion Stakes. There’s also the small matter of the Sprint Cup at Haydock as well. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Long Time, No Tah-see

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    2:45 – Coolmore ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (Group One) – Tahiyra @ Evs (General)

    Tahiyra is an undoubtable talent, but she’s only ran three times this season. Which makes her return to the track all the more tantalising. However, the Matron Stakes has the habit to throw up some real surprises. No favourite has won since Legatissimo in 2015, and has been the only favourite to win in the last 10 years. But Tahiyra is clear on ratings, versatile on ground with a slight bias to firmness, and has every right to be favourite, even after a period off the track.

    To follow her in, Just Beautiful looked as though she could become a talking horse when winning the Lanwades Stud Stakes all the way back in May. But she’s been off the track for some time, and is making a crucial step up to Group One level. Her previous form says she’ll get the ground, and has a couple of decent formlines. Interesting at 9/1 (William Hill)

     

    Not Just The Boys

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    3:20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 11/2 (General)

    This looks, on paper, one of the races of the season. Two three-year-olds who have captured the racing world, plus plenty of Group One experience in the mix as well. But it’s Nashwa I’m drawn to after her performance in the International Stakes. Many people disregarded her, but she finished in between, arguably, the two best horses in the race. She was Only beaten by a length that day, and comes to Leopardstown with conditions on her side, plus John Gosden’s record in the race in recent years puts her in the frame and make the race her own.

    Spare a thought for Luxembourg who seems to be totally disregarded, despite having a good career, three Group One’s including the race last year. He wasn’t up to standard, but you could argue he drops to a preferred trip here. And just because Ryan Moore is on the other horse, doesn’t necessarily means he’s on the right one. Each-way claims at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Too E-Aasy

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    4:30 – Paddy Power Stakes (Group Three) – Al Aasy @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    It beggars belief how Al Aasy is second favourite. His performances, whilst at Listed level, have been eye-catching and he steps up in trip for the first time since his reappearance in the Fred Archer. But he has narrowly been denied at the top level, and it’s that previous Group One experience that may just put him over the line against Adelaide River, who hasn’t won this season, or since his debut. Whilst Adelaide River has disappointed, Al Aasy has made smooth progress and can follow up here at Leopardstown.

     

    Haydock

    Slam Dunk Finish

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    3:35 – Sprint Cup (Group One) – Shaquille @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Shaquille has very much picked up the gauntlet as the top sprinter of the season. From one Northern horse (Highfield Princess) to another, Shaquille has impressed with the turn of foot unlike any other sprinter at the top level. He may dwell at the start, but his jet engine propels him to the front to pick of those who are no match for him. And on paper, it looks another open and shut case.

    Or does it? Sacred was incredibly unlucky at Royal Ascot when denied by 80/1 shot Khaadem, and has been out for revenge since. Whilst previous form suggests his best distance is over seven, on quicker ground it’s much better over six. It was evident when disappointing in the City of York Stakes last time out, and the quick turnaround plus drop in trip may give him a chance to spoil Shaq’s shindig. Next best in the field at 17/2 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    d he looked Is anyone else eager with excitement for Irish Champions Weekend?

    Across both the UK and Ireland, there are 14 Group-level contests across three tracks, seven of which are Group 1s as well as competitive handicaps like the Old Borough Cup at Haydock, Lavassa Stakes at Ascot, and the Pentingo at Leopardstown.

    That is an insane quantity of quality that horse racing fans should be licking their lips for.

    With that in mind – though definitely without the same worldwide level of anticipation – I have three horses to consider for Saturday with a bonus column for Sunday’s action potentially in the works.

    So, let’s not delay anymore and get onto the matter at hand.

     

    3:10 Ascot – Gallant Lion @ 5/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As any follower of me on social media knows, I am a sucker for Tony Carroll-trained horses.

    Whether they are walking around the parade ring ahead of a 0-50 Classified Stakes at Brighton or competing in a competitive handicap around Wolverhampton, at least one of my eyes is always on them.

    Thankfully, this season has been an enjoyable one for the Mill House Racing faithful and it could get even better on Saturday if Gallant Lion obliges in the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot.

    The three-year-old by the late Roaring Lion has been in the tracker ever since my interview with Tony in April where the experienced trainer gave a nice – though not gushing – word for him ahead of his three-year-old campaign.

    “We bought him at the Horses In Training sales and he is a nice, sound horse who was gelded by his previous trainer, Mr Bell.”

    Maybe the Brighton specialist was keeping his cards close to his chest because the beautiful grey has won four races in a row at four different tracks under four different jockeys on three varying ground conditions, most recently at Windsor in the Racing League.

    The handicapper rewarded connections with just three pounds for his neck victory over The Whipmaster, a potentially lenient view as he had to do the hard work from the front and was a gutsy winner.

    Although a drop of rain could potentially benefit his chances, the gelding has won on good-to-firm twice and a look at his pedigree (Roaring Lion out of a Lando mare) wouldn’t immediately suggest that soft ground is a necessity.

    My whole heart will be wishing Gallant Lion home at Ascot tomorrow and with good reason as the 5-1-shot has a good chance to make it five from five.

     

    3:25 Kempton – Seven Questions @ 8/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Away from Ascot and over on the all-weather, the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes is a race that, although not always, can produce a decent horse.

    Mischief Magic was successful 12 months ago on his Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint success, so there is some decent heritage to this six-furlong event.

    Although this year’s renewal doesn’t look vintage on first viewing, the race could set up for Seven Questions under Callum Shepherd.

    The Kodiac two-year-old has been a busy gelding this season thanks to six track appearances and three victories for George Scott.

    In all three of his wins, the £58,000 purchase was impressive on the eye over both five and six furlongs on alternating ground conditions.

    As the age-old stereotype goes, good horses win on any ground and the experienced juvenile is a lovely galloper when there is open air to do so.

    However, he was unable to show this trait last time out at Ripon in the Listed Two Yrs Old Trophy Stakes when third behind the well-fancied Task Force.

    Although he broke nicely from stall five, he was quickly shoved into a pocked between horses and it wasn’t until the one-furlong pole flew past that Darragh Keenan could begin to get serious, but his attempt at a race-winning move was too late and he settled for a bronze medal.

    In isolation, that race can be marked up as the winner is a regally bred Frankel colt who I personally rate highly and the horses around him – notably Shagraan, Bombay Bazar, and Asdana – had all shown good qualities heading into the race.

    Last year, the first four home were all drawn in stall eight or higher, so out of trap number nine, Seven Questions is the play in the Sirenia Stakes.

     

    5:40 Leopardstown – Urban Sprawl @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This couldn’t be an Irish Champions Weekend article without putting up one horse from Leopardstown on Saturday, and although this horse isn’t in one of the feature races, Urban Sprawl at 14/1 is who I’m with.

    Similar to my quoting of ‘good horses go in any ground’, I’ve gone to the racing phrasebook again and pulled out the classic line of ‘back (insert name) blind at (insert track)’.

    Although this usually applies to Tony Carroll at Brighton, I’ve adapted this version to say: ‘Back the Johnstons blind at Leopardstown.’

    This is for good reason as the Johnstons – both when the license was under Mark’s name and then with Mark & Charlie – operate at a 29% strike rate and +£17.08 profit (to a £1 level stake) at Leopardstown from 36 runners.

    That course form is an interesting statistic and tomorrow, Urban Sprawl will be the first runner under just Charlie Johnston’s name to hit the track and he looks well-handicapped off 90.

    The highly-tried chestnut colt was victorious at Goodwood in May when too good for the likes of Tafreej, Dark Thirty, Classic, and Saturnalia, four horses who have won since.

    Urban Sprawl then went to Royal Ascot and finished third in a hot renewal of the Britannia Stakes behind the winner Docklands and runner-up New Endeavour who has franked the form with his second in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury next time out.

    Three runs since over seven furlongs, two of which in softer conditions, haven’t seen him at his best, though his last outing at Goodwood when behind the well-handicapped Rhoscolyn was full of promise.

    Back to a mile and on better ground, Urban Sprawl should benefit from a six-pound three-year-old allowance and looks to have a good chance on Irish soil.

  • Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Following the immense highs of York’s Ebor meeting, Beverley and Sandown Racecourse are under the ITV spotlight this weekend for a fair day of action.

    But first, a look at how The Top Three is sitting heading into September.

    Overall, there have been 74 selections in the series since May 13th. Until the start of Royal Ascot on June 20th, the series was in profit by 28.65 points, however, after no winners through the entire week and a rough run until Glorious Goodwood, the P&L dropped into the negatives.

    Despite this, a profit of 17.45 points at the Ebor Festival means that The Top Three, after nearly four months, is in profit by 3.585 points.

    That isn’t an impressive number, but profit is profit and hopefully, this form can continue heading into the next few weeks.

    So, with that in mind, here are today’s three fancies.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Indemnify @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The first bet from Sandown Racecourse comes in the opening seven-furlong handicap and having seen plenty of money all week, today could be the day for Indemnify to return to the winners’ enclosure at 10/3.

    The four-year-old grey by Lope De Vega has raced four times this season, though his only victory of the year occurred with previous trainer Roger Varian at Sandown over a furlong further than today’s trip.

    The gelding has raced once over seven furlongs during his career when second on the all-weather at Newcastle in a novice event beaten narrowly by Baltimore Boy.

    Since then, connections opted to run him over longer distances and recently, when racing over a mile on his last three starts, jockey Kieran O’Neill has consistently dropped him out towards the rear of the field, notably when fifth to the well-handicapped Perotto on stable debut for Alice Haynes in the Coral Challenge Handicap at Sandown.

    These tactics act as a contrast to his three-year-old season where his best performances came from prominent positions.

    Potentially, you could see a reversal in racing position today to send him into a more prominent position from the start in order to use his useful stamina trait.

    Off a competitive mark of 91, Indemnify ran an eye-catching race at Sandown – a course he is very familiar with – 13 days ago and if he can take advantage of a potential lack of pace in the contest, he could be the one to side with.

     

    2:25 Sandown – Midnight Mile @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As discussed on Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis, despite the main play of Astral Beau at the prices, Midnight Mile was also on my agenda for the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes and with her still remaining in the race, she gets the nod at 13/2.

    Having been with her last time out at Haydock when third to Al Aasy in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes, she performed well under Oisin Orr for the majority of the contest before failing to see out the full 10 furlongs.

    In running, her last outing was a tricky contest as she sat more prominently than her York victory two starts ago and hit the front with two furlongs to go, so all Orr could do was press the button and see if she could withstand 400 metres at top speed.

    Unfortunately, she didn’t and was passed by Al Aasy and El Drama, but against the more experienced horses, she still ran a great race.

    Back at a mile today on rain-softened ground, she could get a nice tow into the race from Mysterious Love and Nibras Angel if connections revert to tactics and sit her in midfield.

    If returning to her best, she could be a dangerous proposition in receipt of five pounds from her elders, so with that in mind, I’ll be siding with Midnight Mile.

     

    2:40 Beverley – Silky Wilkie @ 5/2 General – 2pt Win

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    The Beverley Bullet includes a field of just seven runners this year and unfortunately for readers of Wednesday’s Ante-Post Analysis, Rage Of Bamby is not one of them.

    I can only apologise for her absence, but as a replacement, Silky Wilkie looks like a good replacement to be with at 5/2.

    The four-year-old by Mehmas has had an action-packed – but largely successful – campaign for Karl Burke and owners Middleham Park Racing having raced without a break since November 2022.

    Although there would be a small worry about him being on the go for so long, the £17,500 purchase has only finished outside of the first four on three occasions in 14 runs.

    This streak of consecutive runs includes a second to Annaf at Lingfield in January, a short-head second in the Epsom Dash, and a second in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York in July, all of which is good form.

    Silky Wilkie returned to the track after a 27-day break on Thursday for a Racing League handicap over five furlongs, a race in which he ran promisingly to finish fourth when not asked too many questions.

    His task in handicap company off a mark of 108 was tough two days ago, so today’s Listed Beverley Bullet should be more to his liking and hopefully, the hardy four-year-old can show them a clean pair of heels.

  • Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    After a fantastic Ebor week, we’re back to normal Saturday racing. But there is some fantastic betting heats, including the Beverley Bullet and the tricky Atalanta Stakes. Plus there’s a decent looking two-year-old race at Sandown too. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Aheredia of the game

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    2:25 – Atalanta Stakes (Group Three) – Heredia @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Atalanta Stake is often a hard race to decipher. There have been three double-priced winners in the last four runnings. Another stat of the race is that only one five-year-old has won this race in its history (Lady Bear in 2003). There has, also, never been a dual winner of the race.

    This draws me to Heredia, who is making the step up to Group Three level for the first time in a year. She’s been very consistent, with two seconds and a convincing win last time out. Her ability to go on all kinds of ground shows that it won’t be a problem, but an outside draw may cause a small issue. But held up off the pace, she could make a late burst up the hill late on.

     

    Written in the stars?

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    3:38 – Solario Stakes (Group Three) – Starlore @ 2/1 (General)

    Breeding suggests that Starlore will win this race, as his sire Kingman did back in 2013. And plenty of favourites have won this and gone on to better things. Masar and Too Darn Hot are probably the most notable out of the last ten years, as well as Kingman.

    But Starlore may possess star quality. It might not have been a convincing debut when idling at the finish to hold on by a nose, but the form from that race has worked out, Arabian Crown in particular stands out. With a small field, and the best jockey on board (Ryan Moore), he seems a little overprices at 2/1.

    And talking of Starlore’s debut, Devil’s Point also franked the form when winning next time out at Ffos Las in convincing fashion. On debut, he only finished within one-and-a-half lengths of the winner and might not be far behind here at 11/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Beverley

    A rocket for the Bullet

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    2:40 – William Hill Beverley Bullet (Listed) – Apollo One @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred)

    Apollo One has had a quiet, yet consistent season. Four runs and four places, that isn’t bad form considering they were all in Class 2/Heritage Handicaps. But ground versatile, and with an ideal draw in stall two there may be nothing to stop this rocket finally grabbing a much needed win.

    But spare a thought for Tis Marvellous, the dual winner of the famous race. It could be the swansong for the legend of the Westwood and what a way it would be to bow out. He’s won from stall six before, and he may have the upper hand in what looks a tactical race. 7/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

     

    Chester

    Flying to the front

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    3:20 – Chester Stakes (Listed) – Lone Eagle @ 100/30 (General)

    Lone Eagle’s best performance this season came over this C&D back in May. He finished behind Hamish, and hasn’t looked anything like that day in May since. It may be because he caught the Group One bug, disappointing in both the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

    He’s tumbled down to Listed level, which should be his bread and butter, and Ralph Beckett will want to keep his winning streak in the race going landing the last two editions on the Roodee.

    Military Order hasn’t raced since the Derby, but a hike up in distance around a tricky track like Chester doesn’t fill me with confidence. And finishing last in the Derby speaks volumes that he didn’t like the track, and Chester is often a good trial to deal with the bends.

    The very best of luck!

  • Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Although we may complain about the quality and quantity of racing from time to time, you’d find it hard to crab what was an impeccable week of racing at the York Ebor Festival.

    From Relief Rally to Warm Heart, Absurde to Mostahdaf, the four-day event on the Knavesmire truly delivered competitive action and great results.

    Yes, this week may not be vintage, but Saturdays like this are still decent betting products and they make the big weeks of Flat racing even better.

    So, with that in mind, here are my ante-post plays for this coming weekend.

     

    Bamby to Beverley

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    The Listed Beverley Bullet is one of the feature races of the weekend worth £25,000 to the winner.

    Many of the 11 entries deserve respect – including York handicap winner Equilateral and last year’s victor Tis Marvellous – but it’s Rage Of Bamby at a general price of 14/1 that has grabbed my attention.

    Eve Johnson-Houghton’s daughter of Wootton Bassett is one of the few unexposed types at the distance as she finished a good second last time out in a fillies handicap win by Designer at York on her first start at five furlongs.

    She sat in midfield for the majority of the contest before Charlie Bishop sent her to win the race up the far side rail, and although she hit the front with over a furlong to go, her well-handicapped rival collared her on the line.

    The run was a bit surprising as for the majority of her career, she has been campaigned over longer trips, notably when second to Commissioning, a future Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner, in the seven-furlong Group 2 Rockfel Stakes.

    If you watch back that run and stop the replay two furlongs from home, she looks like the obvious winner, however, she didn’t quite see out the trip, so this season’s drop in distance has been beneficial.

    Although her pedigree wouldn’t scream that five furlongs is her optimum trip, her damsire is Sakhee’s Secret who was a classy sprinter on his day, so there are glimmers to suggest the testing five-furlong course at Beverley could suit.

    With the added bonus of a five-pound three-year-old fillies’ allowance against the older colts and geldings, she is officially the best at the weights and if she can reproduce her York run, she has a good chance to return back to the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Beau on weather watch

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    It’s always difficult to know what the ground will be like days away from a raceday, however, a quick scan of the forecast predicts a washout day at Sandown on Thursday with potential spells of rain on Friday.

    This rain-softened surface could play into the hands of Astral Beau in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes, a general 9/1-shot.

    Fresh from a 50-day break, the four-year-old by Brazen Beau has improved from winning a handicap off a mark of 81 as a three-year-old to performing in top-class Group-level races.

    If conditions do take a turn for the worst, her Listed Doncaster Mile Stakes victory at the start of the season puts her in a good place to handle it, yet if for any reason Sandown misses the incoming rain – which shouldn’t happen – then her third in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on good-to-firm ground behind the Group 1-winning Prosperous Voyage also reads well.

    As for her other two starts this season, she‘a been unlucky to run into several fillies who are at the top of the division.

    Firstly, she finished third to Via Sistina in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes, a horse who has won the Group 1 Irish Oaks since, with Al Husn, a subsequent Group 1 Nassau Stakes winner, less than a length ahead of her in second.

    Fast-forward to her last start in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, she was a good fourth behind the progressive Isaac Shelby (2nd) and Nashwa (1st).

    Nashwa has since finished second to Mostahdaf in the Group 1 Juddmonte International on her latest outing, franking the form of that race.

    Dropped in class for this weekend at the stiff one-mile Sandown course, Astral Beau looks a fair price at 9/1.

     

    Can’t leave Midnight Mile

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    Despite the strong case made for Astral Beau, I think Midnight Mile at 6/1 could be a dangerous rival for the Richard Fahey team.

    She performed with admiration in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes over an extended 10.5 furlongs at Haydock last time out where she probably hit the front too soon and was soon overtaken by El Drama and Al Aasy, two good horses.

    Before that, the way she swept past her rivals in the Listed Lyric Stakes in July was impressive and she has good form behind Oaks winner Soul Sister from this season’s Musidora.

    Returning to a stiff mile on soft ground should see the best out of her, so if you don’t mind backing two horses at each-way prices, both Midnight Mile and Astral Beau deserve respect.