With no Constitution Hill, can State Man write his name on the trophy? Can Galopin Des Champs make it back-to-back in one of the most competitive Gold Cups? Just who will win the headline races of the Festival.
Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – 2m 87yds – Grade One
It’s such a shame that Constitution Hill can’t make it. But at least we’ve another star hurdler on our hands from the other side of the Irish Sea.
State Man is the best hurdler in Ireland and has been for the last two years but has run into Constitution Hill over in Cheltenham to deny him a deserved Champion Hurdle. And with no other hurdler to match the quality of him, it seems another open and shut case.
The without State Man market will be the one to watch throughout the next few days. It’s a shame Lossiemouth will not oppose State Man, as she wouldn’t be without a chance. But she will go to the Mares’ Hurdle.
Irish Point and Iberico Lord have been supplemented for the race. Irish Point has come from a potential tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle to drop a full mile back. It looks like a wasted opportunity over this level, and I cannot understand why Robcour will not run him and Teahupoo together in the main race on Thursday.
Iberico Lord is an out and out two-miler but has been acting it in handicap company. He has won over C&D this season in the Greatwood and won the Betfair Hurdle really well. Considering he may be a Constitution Hill replacement; he might not be out of his depth here.
Verdict:
State Man. Class Act. Wins It. No doubt. 2/5 (General).
Each-way (W/O) picks: Pied Piper has been overlooked I believe. He was not up to scratch in the Morgiana, but around Cheltenham his record reads 1312. Two wins round the course, plus narrowly beaten means he must have a liking for the course and can run a race at a decent price. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).
Reverse Forecast: State Man, Pied Piper
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase – 1m 7F 199yds – Grade One
Once again, this could be another open and shut race. Or is everyone doubting one horse a little too much?
El Fabiolo is unbeaten over fences, handles Cheltenham well and had the better of Jonbon last year. So why should he not win. Some have said he is not the best jumper. But Jonbon isn’t either, given his run in the Clarence House. Even if El Fabiolo makes a mistake, he’s shown the great ability to recover and move on. That’s his best quality.
Do you write of Jonbon for that one mistake? He rallied extremely well, but the mistake at the fourth last knocked the wind out of his sails and just couldn’t respond to James Bowen’s urges up the hill. But he only lost by a neck, which shows his tenacity. It’s 1-1 in the series between these two and Jonbon still has plenty of talent to take advantage of an off day El Fabiolo.
Edwardstone was going to be aimed at the Ryanair. But a poor showing in the Silviniaco Conti and stepped down in the Game Spirit, he showed a new lease of life being ridden from the front. Tom Cannon will try to use that to his advantage, but the former two horses will be expecting it.
Verdict:
Even on an off day, El Fabiolo seems to be the best of the bunch. He hacked up in last year’s Arkle and showed off the gulf between him and Jonbon over fences. It makes sense he will be a massive banker for Wednesday. 4/9 (BetUK).
Each-way pick: Captain Guinness could run to a place if Jonbon doesn’t show his true credentials. His only victory came at the start of the season beating Riviere D’Etel, who backed up the form next time out. He ran a good race in behind El Fabiolo and Dinoblue, two talented chasers, in the Dublin Chase. Double figures are a little too big for a horse who finished second last year. 16/1 (BetVictor).
Ryanair Chase – 2m 4F 127yds – Grade One
This race hangs by a thread with the ground. If it’s good-to-soft by Thursday, expect one of the races of the week. If not, then the race could fall apart.
Banbridge would’ve been my nap of the week if it wasn’t for a wet Wednesday last year. He offers so much class that he’s won two races since. One at Aintree last season and avoided the heavy ground and won a stormer in the Silvinicaco Conti. No one do a rain dance!
Envoi Allen won this race last year and in really good style. He didn’t follow up on his next two runs, but should’ve, would’ve, could’ve won the Champion Chase at Down Royal if it wasn’t for Gerri Colombe. Don’t be fooled by the double digits as his age will prove nothing when he turns up and runs a stormer.
Stage Star looks made to win this race. He wasn’t on his day on New Year’s Day but draw a line through that run and look back at him winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup by four lengths off next-to-top weight. When a horse loves Cheltenham this much, you can’t’ not look against him.
Capodanno really sprung a surprise in the Cotswold Chase. But analyse the race a little more and you will see that the race was tailor-made for him. He came up against a novice, a horse who was below par, a horse who didn’t like Cheltenham and a handicapped in Grade One company for the first time. It makes sense to drop him here as he wouldn’t want to clash with the Gold Cup entries, but his last win proves this horse has an engine.
Verdict:
IF THE GROUND READS GOOD-TO-SOFT, Banbridge will win and win well. He’s a horse I’ve loved ever since the Martin Pipe and has a clear love for Cheltenham. Given Joseph O’Brien’s reduction on jumpers, he won’t come to the Festival to show up. 11/4 (General).
Each-way pick: I visited Jamie Snowden’s yard on Thursday, and he was supplementing Ga Law for the race. He was very bullish about his chances. He has a great love for Cheltenham and so does the horse, especially when he won the Paddy Power Podcast Chase on Trial’s Day and seems confident he can deliver in a field full of quality. Sold! 16/1 (General).
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – 2m 7F 203yds – Grade One
Always competitive and this year’s renewal is no different. Will the youngster’s take the crown, or will the old boys have one final say on the proceedings?
Teahupoo is the main hope for the Irish. He ran a great race last season and was first past the post into second but was demoted after an enquiry. He showed his quality in the Hatton’s Grace and has been kept fresh for this race, avoiding all staying contests. But there’s been no evidence that there is a better Irish competitor.
Crambo ran a cracker of a race in the Long Walk Hurdle, giving Jonathan Burke a big Grade One win. He’s been booked again to ride Fergal O’Brien’s stable star and there’s nothing to say he won’t go near again.
Noble Yeats has found a new lease of life when just about outstaying Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle. We know this horse has a big engine, as he’s a former Grand National winner. He may have another go at the race, and race over hurdles until then. Emmet Mullins will have had this race in mind to protect his chase mark for the National.
Flooring Porter may have been a National Hunt Chase contender at the start of the season, but his chasing days look a world away. Gavin Cromwell is tempted to come back to this race, which isn’t stupid, given he’s won the race twice. He’s a horse that might have been a little poor over fences but is menace over hurdles.
Verdict:
Teahupoo is the best hurdler in this race. Despite only running once this season, there hasn’t been another horse that has impressed me this season in the division, which speaks volumes. It will no doubt be competitive, but he ran a great race last season and can go well again. 9/4 (BetUK).
Each-way pick: Flooring Porter should not be the price he is when he is coming back to this race. Connections were hesitant about going over fences this season, and it only worked once at the track he likes. A two-time winner of this race, who still has plenty to give is being criminally underestimated. 12/1 (General).
Paisley Park has been beaten by the following distances this season: head, shoulder, head. Yes, he wasn’t at his best last year, but this year he has shown his best qualities. The fact he has lost by these distances shows you just need a bit of luck in racing. For a place, he’s good value. 16/1 (General).
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup – 3m 2F 70yds – Grade One
The biggest race of the season. All the iconic names have won this race and have been immortalised ever since. This year looks to be the most competitive Gold Cups we have had for a while.
Galopin Des Champs was finally found out by Fastorslow in the Punchestown Gold Cup and the John Durkan. But he really showed those who doubted him in the Irish Gold Cup, when back to his brilliant best. He just seems to be hitting the right notes at the right time.
Fastorslow did get two over the Gold Cup winner, as mentioned before. What people may fail to remember is he was beaten by a neck by Corach Rambler in the Ultima. Credit’s where it’s due to Martin Brassil and deserves a winner on the big stage.
It’s safe to say, Shishkin has been a handful this season. Didn’t start at Ascot, tripped inexplicably at Kempton, before showing what he’s made of at Newbury in the Denman. A previous Supreme winner, he finished second in last year’s Ryanair. Is three-and-a-quarter miles a bridge too far?
Gerri Colombe was touted to win the Gold Cup by winning the Down Royal Champion Chase in November. But was shown to be out of his depth when beaten 23 lengths by Galopin Des Champs. He was oh so close to winning the Brown Advisory last year but was beaten by The Real Whacker. This year may not be his time.
Verdict:
Galopin Des Champs has an excellent record at the Festival. Currently unbeaten, excluding the fall at the final fence in the Turner’s, he’s always shown his best at the Festival. He just has the beating of this field this season, next year could be a different story. Even at a short price, he’s worth it. 5/4 (General).
Each-way picks: There’s plenty to pick from. Whilst Bravemansgame hasn’t had the best of seasons, he’s still managed to hang onto a place. Second at Wetherby, second at Haydock and second at Kempton isn’t Gold Cup winning form. But when you consider he was second in last year’s renewal, and matched Galopin Des Champs at the final fence, he’s overpriced. 16/1 (BetUK).
Many forget just how good a target trainer Mouse Morris is. Gentlemansgame beat Bravemansgame at Wetherby, which made up for finishing second to Easy Game in October. This has been the clear plan and has come up against Galopin Des Champs before. He finished second that day, but it could happen again. 16/1 (General).
