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  • Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Action on the Roodee kicked off yesterday, though day 1 at the Chester May Festival ended with sadness after the awful incident involving Hidden Law after the line in the Chester Vase.

    For many, as the Dubawi three-year-old kicked clear from Aidan Oā€™Brienā€™s Agenda, we looked at his performance and gave him plenty of credit for the effort.

    After all, he was very good at Newbury, it was just whether he could step up to a better grade and transform his form.

    Well, he did, so it was incredibly sad what happened to him moments after the line, and all we can do is give our best wishes to those closely connected to the horse.

    Just a quick line on yesterdayā€™s results from the column; Al Shabab Storm returned place money at 7/1 (though he was unlucky not to win) and Cadogan Place finished fifth of sixth in the Chester Vase.

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    2:35 Chester ā€“ Witness Stand @ 18/1 with Boylesports ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Kicking off the action in the third race of the day, Witness Stand can outrun his odds back at a course he knows well.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye won a maiden on debut at the course from stall six of seven before he went straight into Group 2 company for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

    He did the donkey work that day, but still ran with credit to finish sixth in a race won by Haatem (subsequently 3rd in the 2000 Guineas). Iberian, Mountain Bear, and Son also franked the form subsequently.

    Having finished third on heavy ground behind Orne at Newmarket to finish the season, he blew off the cobwebs at Kempton when fifth to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) at the start of last month, something that will put him spot on for this.

    Going from Group and top-class company to a Class 2 0-105 will benefit Witness Stand, so he has a good chance to put in a display here.

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    3:05 Chester ā€“ Brackenā€™s Laugh @ 3/1 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt Win

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    Something about the performance of Brackenā€™s Laugh at Chelmsford in April caught my eye, and Iā€™m hoping he continues that progress here at Chester.

    The three-year-old by Zoffany has a strong pedigree behind him as he is from the family of Getaway and Guadalupe, a Group 1-winning mare.

    As for his Chelmsford success, although Capulet probably needed the run and could outrun his odds on Thursday, he beat a race-fit Orne who was sporting first-time cheekpieces.

    The top three in the market deserve plenty of respect, but Brackenā€™s Laugh gets the nod as his class has the ability to prevail.

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    4:10 Chester ā€“ Dream Harder @ 8/1 with SkyBet (5 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    The form of the Ian Williams stable is moderate at the moment (13% strike rate over the last two weeks) which offers extra confidence behind Dream Harderā€™s chances in the penultimate race.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is highly tried but he also knows how to win having found the winnersā€™ enclosure five times in his last 16 runs since switching to Williams from Jamie Osborne.

    One of those successes came at Chester off a mark of 85, just three pounds below his current rating, and his win that day looked easy at the line.

    Since then, he finished fourth in a Windsor Racing League handicap, a race won by Spirit Dancer, who subsequently won the Bahrain International Trophy and Neom Turf Cup.

    Furthermore, Tiffany (now rated 15lbs higher having won a Listed race in Hanover) and Tregony (a subsequent Listed winner now rated 15lbs higher) filled out the two places ahead of him, and Dream Harder had a troubled passage through the race that day. Even the fifth, Teumessias Fox, won a handicap on his next start.

    As for this season, he finished a staying-on third behind Intinso – an eye-catcher on his latest start in a Ā£100,000 Newmarket handicap ā€“ at Wolverhampton before bombing out at Kempton on his last start.

    If you can forgive his last run, he looks to have a solid chance on paper and Jim Crowley gets the leg up.

  • Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    The Flat season is now well into gear following Punchestown and the Guineas last weekend, and the first day of the Chester May Festival is a good way to mark this changing of the guard.

    After a good amount of time spent talking about three-mile chasers (which is my passion) through the winter, my inner Flat brain is eager to see some rapid sprinters and Classic contenders.

    Chester is a tough place to bet due to the nature of the course, so the volume of fancies through this week wonā€™t match that of the Punchestown Festival from last week.

    Speaking of the final big jumps meeting of the year, this column struggled to kick into gear over the first few days, but a helping hand from Minella Crooner on the final day pushed last weekā€™s P&L to 18.5pts in profit. The overall P&L is slightly lower at 10pts.

    Considering the recent form over the last few months, a positive number in the P&L column is a welcome sight, so letā€™s not give it all back.

     

    1:30 Chester ā€“ Al Shabab Storm @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Starting with the opener, the Andrew Balding team have hit the ground running this Flat season (23% strike rate over the last two weeks) and that form can continue with Al Shabab Storm.

    The one negative against his name is stall 10, but his form is well above a few in here and he can make use of that if he gets a nice early position under Oisin Murphy.

    The three-year-old by Advertise debuted at Leicester in September 2023, but his best run of the month came 17 days later on much quicker ground at Newmarket when he ran into Accumulate.

    He hung left that day in the closing stages which allowed Accumulate to win, though the form of that race has worked out well as the winner won at Lingfield on his next start and the third, Native Warrior, ran into the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in April 2024.

    After that, he ran a good race on heavy ground at Doncaster when fourth behind Ballymount Boy, a good yardstick thanks to his form with Vandeek.

    Back to six furlongs is a positive, though his starting gate is the only worry.

     

    3:40 Chester ā€“ Cadogan Place @ 15/2 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt EW

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    This yearā€™s Chester Vase is an interesting puzzle to decipher, but the 15/2 price of Cadogan Place is one of great interest.

    The Frankel two-year-old started his career with a victory over Hidden Law at Southwell in late March, and although he got the first run over Godolphinā€™s Dubawi colt, the ease at which Oisin Murphy travelled through the race was eye-catching.

    On paper, that form looks strong as the runner-up bolted up at Newbury on his next start and is the 5/2 second-favourite in this field.

    After all, that was his first run and it was on the all-weather, so he is entitled to come on for it now on the turf.

    He was well-backed on the day, which is an interesting fact, and he is a full brother to Quadrilateral, the 2017 Group 1 Filliesā€™ Mile winner who was also third to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas.

    Considering all of this, Iā€™m happy to chance him at 15/2.

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic ā€“ Part Two

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic ā€“ Part Two

    Yesterday, we saw a shock as City Of Troy checked out of the 2000 Guineas in a major disappointment. Today will be a trickier challenge with the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. A rather open field with plenty due for improvement, so who takes the nod in todayā€™s four to follow?

     

    Blast-Off

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    1:50 ā€“ William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) ā€“ Kalpana @ 7/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Kalpana blew everyone at the Craven meeting, winning in handicap company by 10 lengths. That kind of form is useful when stepping up into Listed company, and should beat the field, who are somewhat either exposed or inexperienced. She has plenty of staying pedigree in her family so shouldnā€™t have a problem with the trip again.

    At a price, a horse I loved last season, Carolina Reaper. Itā€™s hard to say if she will improve from two to three, but she is a Group Three winner (albeit in Germany). Itā€™s a hike in distance and more of a fact-finding mission today, and breeding suggests overall a mile will be best. But her dam did get a mile-and-a-quarter when three years old, so 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) may be worth a little punt.

     

    Alert And Awake

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    2:25 ā€“ William Hill Dahila Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Stay Alert @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Stay Alert may be a little underestimated in the field. She wasnā€™t successful at Group One level, and this may more to her taste. Sheā€™s won twice going fresh plus sheā€™ll get her ground. Also stepping down a touch to a mile and a furlong might bring the best out of her. Plus, sheā€™s top rated without having to give any weight away which makes her price all the more appealing.

    Caernarfon was an Oaks horse, many people forget. And she finished third. She did get stepped down to a mile and a quarter, but never produced her best. Her last win came over a mile, and sheā€™s only a furlong above that. Plus, a course win only enhances her chances further. Sheā€™s a little shorter than I expected, but she should go well. 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Golden Ring

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    3:00 ā€“ William Hill Handicap (Heritage) ā€“ Bague Dā€™Or @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Bague Dā€™or is a horse who can go really well fresh, with two wins and two seconds. A slight negative is he is off the same mark as he was at the end of last season. But he did only race twice last season and this run may bring about more improvement. Mickael Barzalona is a really interesting jockey booking and may deliver a first win in less than two years.

    Adjuvant is another horse who can go well fresh with a win and two places. He inexplicably had a brief campaign over hurdles during the Winter, but heā€™s definitely a flat horse. He drops two pounds to a mark he finished second at the Goodwood Festival last year, where he was nearly two lengths ahead of third. Adjuvant won over C&D last May off a higher mark but has every right to hit the frame. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Struth is a really interesting character. Heā€™s won twice off a break, including on debut. He finished third over 1m 6F at Haydock last season, which is his only experience over the trip, so is still a bit unexposed. 96 is a mark he can give or take, but given heā€™s won two races in his career in the spring, now may be the time to back him. 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A Classic Renewal

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    1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) ā€“ Fallen Angel @ 100/30 (General)

    Yesterday, we all thought we knew how the first Classic of the season would go. Now the second Classic is here, itā€™s opened up enormously. However, a Group One winner in Fallen Angel should not be discounted. Brilliant backs the form up from her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season, but so does her win in the Sweet Solera. Bred from a Group Mile winner, she should have it in her to win this race.

    It may be a surprise that Porta Fortuna turns up here, but she almost won at the Breedersā€™ Cup. She came within half a length at a distance that she had not experienced that season, which shows a massive improvement at a young age. She should get the distance now sheā€™s three, and her dam won over further in her career. Definitely a watch at 14/1 (Unibet).

    Darnation lit up my eyes when watching her live at Thirsk breaking her maiden. She achieved Group success since, but just failed in the Criterium for Fillies and Longchamp. Sheā€™s a proven Group winner over the distance which should stand her in good stead, despite her being 33/1 (William Hill, 10Bet).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic ā€“ Part One

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic ā€“ Part One

    And weā€™re off with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. After all the hype could we finally see City Of Troy become a world beater or will Rosallion, quotes as one of the best Richard Hannon has trained, snatch victory. Plus a terrific undercard too. Itā€™s a two-parter Newmarket Guineas Four to Follow.

     

    The Classic Chairman

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    1:45 ā€“ William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage) ā€“ Chairmanoftheboard @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Being at least a pound well in a handicap like this can make all the difference. And that is what exactly Chairmanoftheboard is. He was only beaten by a head at the Craven meeting and hasnā€™t moved off his mark of 86. Surely with the downpour everyone has had in the country has hit Newmarket too and should have enough dig to have his preferred ground and will have a good go at this.

    An interesting quote from Richard Hannon about this horse is ā€œThe more trouble he gets in the better.ā€ Mums Tipple didnā€™t have that much of a successful season last year, with only a win at Chelmsford in March. However, his all-weather mark and turf mark are five pounds apart, with the turf mark more appealing. Plus he seems to act well at the start of the season as well, so should go near at 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

    It’s also worth giving a mention at a big price for Desert Cop. Heā€™s been dropped a full ten pounds from his last turf appearance in the Ayr Gold Cup. He was last seen finishing last whilst finishing top weight at Kempton and the significant drop might signal some improvement from a horse whoā€™s won early on in the season before. 22/1 (General).

     

    Catch A Dutchman

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    2:20 ā€“ William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) ā€“ Dutch Decoy @ 15/2 (General)

    For a horse who finished within a neck last time out and is a pound well in on the handicap, itā€™s hard to figure out why Dutch Decoy is the price that he is. Heā€™s higher in the weights than last year, but not by much showing that he is an improving horse. Johnston horses love to make the running and with everything in favour for Dutch Decoy, most will be playing catch me if you can.

    Majestic is a big Newmarket lover. A winner of the Cambridgeshire, he didnā€™t exactly follow up but put in a good shift at the start of last season in this race. He returns at a lower mark and conditions should be in his favour. He was only beaten a length into fifth last time out at the Craven meeting so he should be in and around the finish according to the handicapper. 9/1 (William Hill).

    If thereā€™s one jockey that everyone should take note of, itā€™s Saffie Osborne. A hugely talented rider, and she gets the leg up on Mustazeed. A horse who, last season, began really well. However, heā€™s been on a mark of 88 for a while and has only come down after a poor performance at the end of last season. His last win came on good ground so conditions may suit for a big run. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Mit-Baah Humbug

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    2:55 ā€“ William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group Three) ā€“ Mitbaahy @ 100/30 (Unibet)

    Three-year-olds donā€™t have a great record early on in the Palace House so Iā€™ve looked to the more experienced type. Mitbaahy wasnā€™t too far away in the Abernant during the Craven meeting, and sometimes needs a run before he needs to be considered. Whilst not a Group One horse, heā€™s certainly a horse who can act at this level.

     

    Definitely Not Wooden

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    2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) ā€“ City Of Troy @ 8/11 (William Hill, Unibet)

    If thereā€™s one horse that everyone has been waiting for this flat season, itā€™s City Of Troy. Everyone has waited for this horse to compete in the Guineas after his win in the Dewhurst Stakes, often a great pointer to this race. Rosallion does have good form behind him, but City Of Troy has rather better.

    Alyanaabi finished second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst and has his form boosted by Boiling Point, from the Tattersalls Stakes, winning yesterday at Newmarket. Heā€™s bred by Too Darn Hot, which means he will certainly get a mile. It may be a question of ground after winning twice on firmer surfaces. But Shadwell usually gets their breeding right. 18/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Itā€™s the final day of the Punchestown Festival, a week that has certainly had its fair share of varying results.

    As for yesterday, this column managed to get Brides Hill across the line, though there was a bit of bad luck through Flanking Maneuver and Lifetime Ambition.

    Still, with action from Punchestown and Newmarket to look forward to, letā€™s dive in.

     

    1:15 Newmarket ā€“ Heritage House @ 8/1 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt EW (3 places)

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    Over in the opener at Newmarket, Heritage House gets the allowances from her elders and she has some nice two-year-old form in the book.

    The three-year-old by Dark Angel is out of Global Light, a half-sister to the top sire Mehmas, and she ran in the Listed Nell Gwyn Stakes last month on her first start at seven furlongs, though she was a bit keen and had a troubled passage through the race.

    The Nell Gywn looks like solid form as she stayed on behind the Guineas-bound Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence.

    Before that, she finished fourth to Romantic Style (Charlie Applebyā€™s Night Of Thunder three-year-old who beat Ramatuelle in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence) in the Listed Bosra Sham Filliesā€™ Stakes, a race that also included Adaay In Devon (rated 100) and Navassa Island.

    With two bits of solid form at Newmarket and race fitness in the book, she looks likely to run a big race.

     

    3:05 Punchestown ā€“ Neveradullmoment @ 9/1 with SkyBet (1pt EW) & Bowtogreatness @ 28/1 with Bet365 (0.5pt EW) (6 places)

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    Two horses look likely to hit the frame in the second race at Punchestown, the first of which is Neveradullmoment.

    Heā€™s tried three miles once before and ran a good race but was hampered at the second-last fence, yet he still stayed on.

    The step up to nearly four miles can encourage improvement, and he has form behind Intense Raffles (the Irish Grand National winner) and Where It All Began (Grand National Trial winner) from a novice chase at Fairyhouse in January.

    He was also behind owner-mate Perceval Legallois on chase debut over 2m2f and he has form on ground varying from yielding to heavy.

    As for Bowtogreatness, heā€™s a slightly sentimental bet, but Ben Pauling has made no secret in the regard that he holds him in.

    Although he disappointed in the Kim Muir, the race came just 18 days after his big run in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase which was maybe on the sharp side in hindsight.

    Furthermore, although his recent form comes on decent ground, his novice hurdle form came on soft and heavy ground and thereā€™s no reason to suggest heā€™ll hate any softening in the surface.

    As for his mark, a rating of 130 is very lenient and Ben Pauling wouldnā€™t bring him to Punchestown for no reason.

     

    4:15 Punchestown ā€“ Minella Crooner @ 25/1 with SkyBet ā€“ 1pt EW (5 places)

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    Gordon Elliottā€™s Minella Crooner has always promised to land a big race over fences, and Iā€™m hoping this theory occurs today.

    The eight-year-old finished second in the 2022 Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind this yearā€™s Bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner.

    He also split Journey With Me and Kilcruit over 2m4f in a maiden hurdle, two pieces of strong form.

    Since trying his hand over fences, he nearly beat Darrens Hope on his debut over the big obstacles (in a Grade 2 novice chase) when receiving weight before beating I Am Maximus, the 2024 Grand National winner, at Fairyhouse.

    As for this season, a victory over Joyeux Machin set a good tone before he was a fast-finishing third to Jungle Boogie (who was running well in the Gold Cup before a mistake at the third-last) and Classic Getaway in the Grade 3 Savills Chase on New Yearā€™s Day.

    Although his last three outings havenā€™t made for great reading, a return to a sharper three miles around a course heā€™s always done well at (won a bumper, won a maiden hurdle, and ran well twice over fences) will suit and the recent rain in the last 24 hours will cause no harm as well.

    For a horse of his quality, a mark of 142 is lenient in this field.

     

    4:50 Punchestown ā€“ Kargese @ 13/8 with Bet365 ā€“ 2pt Win

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    Today is a big day for Paul Townend in his search for the jockeysā€™ championship, and Kargese looks like one to help him on his journey.

    Although the four-year-old by Jeu St Eloi has raced at the Dublin Racing Festival, Cheltenham, and Aintree, she showed plenty of keenness on her last start which didnā€™t indicate any chance of her stopping.

    Her form with Majborough and Sir Gino from the two big UK festivals is the best here and I came out of Aintree with serious respect for her ability.

    She gets weight from the geldings, but she is a tough filly and her family tended to handle their races quite well.

     

    5:25 Punchestown ā€“ Monbeg Park @ 11/1 with Bet365 ā€“ 1pt EW (6 places)

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    Coming into this season, I fancied Monbeg Park to hit the frame at the top level in novice chases, but connections have decided to revert him to hurdles.

    Thatā€™s not usually something Iā€™m too keen on, but he didnā€™t jump with much fluency at Punchestown on his last start and his novice hurdling form is top quality.

    He beat Spillaneā€™s Tower (a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner) and Uncle Phil (rated 149 over fences) at the Punchestown Festival last year and he was also second to Affordale Fury (the Albert Bartlett runner-up) on his debut over hurdles.

    Having won twice around the track, my theory is connections wouldnā€™t bring him back this season if he wasnā€™t spot on because he has had well-documented joint issues in the past.

    Therefore, with a lenient mark of 135, I hope he can outrun his odds.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    The third day of the 2024 Punchestown Festival began with a brilliant story thanks to Singing Banjo in the La Touche Cup, but the subsequent fatal injuries sustained by Kilbeg King and Sire Du Berlais marred the day.

    Sire Du Berlais was a warrior of a horse – his Cheltenham Festival record speaks for itself – and Kilbeg King was a personal favourite of mine who held plenty of ability and potential. Thoughts are truly with those closest to these horses.

    As for the column, from the three bets put up, we returned profit on the day as Will Do placed in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 33/1.

    I did initially think Buddy One had also returned place money after his run in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle, but Home By The Lee collared him for third on the line.

    Still, letā€™s roll on to the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    3:00 Newmarket ā€“ Zouky @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Starting at Newmarket rather than Punchestown, Zouky is worth looking at in the seven-furlong handicap on her second start of the season.

    Having run well over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton last month, sheā€™ll come on for that and will appreciate a return to the turf.

    The four-year-old by Zoustar performed well in Listed company on two occasions last season when clashing with the likes of Queen Aminatu, Potapova, Breege, and Nine Tenths.

    However, itā€™s not just this form that looks good as she was second off 87 in a Doncaster handicap in September, a race that has seen Dark Thirty come out of and win subsequently.

    Furthermore, Poet Master (the winner) has improved since as shown by his nice handicap success at Newmarket earlier this year off a mark of 100.

    All in all, she has a good chance here back at seven furlongs.

     

    4:15 Punchestown ā€“ Flanking Maneuver @ 28/1 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt EW

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    The first handicap race of the day from Punchestown is very interesting, and a few horses made it onto the shortlist, but Flanking Maneuver is the one Iā€™m siding with at the prices.

    Despite his age of nine, the Beat Hollow gelding is relatively lightly raced due to his 760 days away from the track between January 2021 and February 2023, but he showed his well-being in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase last year.

    That race has worked out as Mahler Mission would have gone close in the 2023 Grade 2 National Hunt Chase if not for falling and he finished second in the Coral Gold Cup after that

    He has dipped his hoof into Grade 1 company on two occasions this season, one of which in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where he finished fourth and the other came on his last start in the WillowWarm Gold Cup.

    Arguably, he has excuses for both the runs as in the former, he travelled well but found three miles on bottomless ground a bit tough at the end, and he was badly hampered by a faller on his latest start.

    A rating of 134 is very handy when considering the excuses for his recent disappointing efforts.

     

    4:50 Punchestown ā€“ Brides Hill @ 7/4 with Bet365 ā€“ 2pt Win

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    Regular viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel or my X page already know the love I have for Brides Hill, and today is where she gets her preferred conditions.

    She was a non-runner at Cheltenham due to the soft conditions, so a return to a sounder surface will suit her.

    Her ability is apparent, especially on decent ground when going right-handed, and with Allegorie De Vassyā€™s potential preference for a slower surface, that puts Brides Hill ahead of her in my mind.

     

    5:25 Punchestown ā€“ Lifetime Ambition @ 4/1 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt Win

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    When looking at any hunter chases at the big meetings, class tends to prevail and the nine-year-old Lifetime Ambition is one who still retains that old spark.

    The Kapgarde gelding was a decent performer for Jessica Harrington as a novice and handicap chaser ā€“ notably when second to Capodanno in the 2022 Grade 1 Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase ā€“ but he switched to point-to-points in October 2023.

    Since that switch, four of his last six races resulted in a win and his most recent success came at Cork during an 11-length victory.

    He has form on better ground and he is a quality horse, which is why he should go well on Friday.

     

    7:05 Punchestown ā€“ Mighty Bandit @ 18/1 with Bet365 (four places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Mighty Bandit has a classic profile of a horse I like to back in races like this and the 18/1 available has helped sweeten the deal on why Iā€™m with him.

    The four-year-old by Order Of St George gets six pounds from his elders and is arguably still unexposed as heā€™s had just three runs, one of which was successful.

    That came on debut at Punchestown when trained by Gordon Elliott as he beat Lark In The Morning by nine lengths, a good piece of form considering Harsh ā€“ an impressive handicap hurdle winner earlier in the week ā€“ was back in third.

    After that, he went into Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle as the 13/8 favourite but could only manage ninth. Admittedly, that was disappointing, but his wind was seemingly the issue as he had a wind-op soon after.

    Now with Warren Greatrex, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival on his first start for a while, so heā€™s likely to come on for that and a return to a sounder surface at an easier track will benefit him.

    He has to bounce back, and thatā€™s why his price is so big, but the time of his Punchestown victory in November stacks up very well against the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle won by State Man (State Man was carrying 12lbs more) and he can outrun his odds.

  • Four To Follow: Final Fling

    Four To Follow: Final Fling

    Itā€™s the final day of the jumps season and what a season it has been. Weā€™ve seen plenty awesome performances, storylines and shocks and it all ends today. History can be created with Willie Mullins top of the UK trainers championship, whilst Harry Cobden managed to wrap up the jockeys championship yesterday. But we focus on the big races at Sandown for todayā€™s four to follow.

     

    Weā€™re All Playing It

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    2:25 ā€“ Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) ā€“ Easy Game @ 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    This is an incredibly tricky race. The Real Whacker has had a bad season and hasnā€™t looked himself; Hitman has only won three times in his career and the rest look a little out of depth. Only Easy Game takes the eye for me.

    He loves good ground, and he seems to go better right-handed in Ireland, which will suit him at Sandown. He was disappointing at Sandown, always behind the pace and never responding. With better ground and a better suited track, Easy Game can make a big impression.

     

    Final Celebration

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    3:00 ā€“ Celebration Chase (GRADE ONE) ā€“ Jonbon @ 2/1 (General)

    You can pick holes in both the favourites, but El Fabiolo wasnā€™t at his best at all at Cheltenham and his jumping has never been the best either. Jonbon comes in off a win over further at Aintree and defending his title in the final Grade One of the season and the market seems to favour the former. With the course experience, Jonbon should be able to find more, jumping-wise, against El Fabiolo.

     

    Long Time, No See

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    3:35 ā€“ bet365 Gold Cup (Premier Handicap Chase) ā€“ Le Milos @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    The last time we saw Le Milos over fences was in the 2023 Grand National. The 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner hasnā€™t seen a fence this season, but itā€™s not like he was bad at jumping over the bigger obstacles. This seems another master plot job by the Skelton boys for the final big handicap of the season.

    Heā€™s been dropped three pounds over fences, which only puts him three pounds above his Coral Gold Cup winning mark. He won that race on good ground so will love the conditions. And heā€™s one for one at Sandown after winning a novice hurdle here back in 2019.

    Annual Invictus, along with every horse in the Kim Muir, was struggling when Inothewayurthinkin turned on the taps. He couldā€™ve finished a little higher in the field had it not been for a bad hamper at the fifth last. But with the first horse backing up the form and the second horse, Git Maker, finishing third in the Scottish National, 16/1 (General) doesnā€™t seem a bad each-way bet.

    Sam Brown, despite being one of the elders of the field, is four pounds well-in the handicap. He ran a cracker of a race at Aintree and hasnā€™t done much wrong in the latter stage of this season. He remains on the same mark and can run a race at a big price on ground he likes. 22/1 (General).

     

    This Time, You Shall Not Passe

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    Select Hurdle (Grade Two) ā€“ Impaire Et Passe @ 5/4 (William Hill)

    Two of the first three of THAT Aintree Hurdle reoppose here. There were arguments galore about who shouldā€™ve won the race, but ultimately it went to Impaire Et Passe. This middle-distance trip seems to suit him, and theyā€™re not many of these level weight races around so be sure when he turns up. Langer Dan ran really well last time out, but that might have taken too much out of him.

    The very best of luck!

  • Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Well, the British jumps season proper is going into hibernation very soon which means itā€™s time for the annual Sandown Jumps Finale Day.

    Most years, this card is a cracker, but this season in particular promises to be well-above average thanks to Willie Mullinsā€™ multiple-pronged attack.

    El Fabiolo, Nick Rockett, and Impaire Et Passe certainly add plenty of intrigue, but here are my plays for Sandownā€™s Saturday card.

     

    1:50 Sandown ā€“ Court In The Act @ 11/1 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt EW

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    The opener ā€“ as expected with a novicesā€™ handicap hurdle finale worth Ā£100,000 ā€“ is a proper race with 20 runners and nearly 20 different cases, but Court In The Act can take this off a lenient mark of 119.

    A few horses in here, notably Secret Squirrel and Fiercely Proud, have form that ties in with Lump Sum and Jeriko Du Reponet in one way or another but they are weighted accordingly.

    As for Court In The Act, he won a hot maiden hurdle at Kempton on good ground on Boxing Day when beating Onethreefivenotout (second to Lump Sum on undesirable heavy ground at Wincanton in November), Moon Chime, and Sea Invasion (third to Jeriko Du Reponet at Newbury on his previous start).

    Collateral form is a dangerous game to play, but when that much stacks in in one horseā€™s favour, itā€™s hard to ignore.

    Furthermore, Moon Chime was third in a hot Listed Cheltenham bumper (won by Brechin Castle) on his previous start, a race that has seen Fire Flyer come out of and beat Secret Squirrel at Taunton.

    Harry Derham is operating at a 32% strike rate currently, so as long as tomorrow morningā€™s rain doesnā€™t affect the ground too much, Court In The Act has a great chance to land the opener.

     

    2:25 Sandown ā€“ The Real Whacker @ 5/2 with BetVictor ā€“ 1pt Win

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    Ah, The Real Whacker, my old friend.

    Having backed him to win the Gold Cup one too many times than Iā€™d like to admit, heā€™s back into calmer waters on Saturday in what is a winnable race.

    Although he pulled up in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup, he was running well from the front for a while, but the quality of the race mixed with the soft ground saw his effort thwarted coming down the hill.

    Prior to that, he ran a good race in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase, a race in which Ahoy Senor has come out to frank the form. Furthermore, although he pulled up at both Cheltenham and Ayr, finishing ahead of Stay Away Fay is a good marker in my book.

    2m6f on better ground is something that I think will suit him whereas Hitman has had issues on good ground in the past (beaten by Zanza in last yearā€™s Grade 2 Denman Chase) and thereā€™s a possibility that The Real Whacker could get a freebie from the front.

     

    3:00 Sandown – Jonbon @ 2/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    El Fabiolo against Jonbon is a clash to savour, especially due to the fact it’s at a track away from Cheltenham, but there’s a lot going for the latter in order to make me back him.

    His course record is golden having won on all three of his starts, and his form is top class.

    He beat subsequent Champion Chase winner Captain Guinness in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase last year and it’s hard to ignore his duo of successes over Edwardstone who then bolted up in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February.

    It’s feasible to think that Jonbon can force a mistake or two from El Fabiolo, and when you look deeply into El Fabiolo’s form, beating Fil Dor by nearly five lengths in the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase can be questioned.

    So, it’s bold, but Jonbon is the side of the fence that I am on.

     

    3:35 Sandown ā€“ Le Milos @ 10/1 with SkyBet & Weveallbeencaught @ 14/1 with SkyBet ā€“ 0.5pts EW

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    As stated on the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel earlier this week, two make the most appeal in the Bet365 Gold Cup.

    The first is Le Milos who has been trained for this race by Dan Skelton, one of the sharpest operators when it comes to these big handicaps this season.

    He won the Coral Gold Cup on good ground off a mark of 146 in 2022 and he is just three pounds higher than that winning mark.

    Furthermore, the runner-up, Remastered, bolted up at Kempton on his next start while Corach Rambler and Annsam went on to better things, one more so than the other.

    As for Weveallbeencaught, his best form comes on better ground having finished third to Flooring Porter and stablemate Broadway Boy, two horses who need no introduction when it comes to their class, at Cheltenham in October.

    As a novice hurdler, he finished third to Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 novice hurdle on his first start over obstacles on good ground, so a mark of 132 could look silly by the end of Saturday.

     

    5:20 Sandown ā€“ Mahons Glory @ 14/1 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Patrick Neville has two horses running at Sandown on Saturday and I fancy both to hit the frame, though Mahons Glory is the biggest-priced contender of the pair.

    Like the opener, the last race is a corker, but the profile of Nevilleā€™s eight-year-old appeals to me despite his mark of 136 which wouldnā€™t make him the best-handicapped horse in the race.

    The Fame And Glory gelding had a plan earlier this season of running in a Graded race on his first start for a long time and then winning a handicap, as shown by his win at Kempton on Boxing Day.

    After 107 days away from the track, he bucked out like a rocket in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle two weeks ago and faded badly, much like he did in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle in December.

    However, after his Kempton handicap success, Neville explained that ā€œthe last day just knocked some of the gas out of himā€, so one can hope Aintree has done the same.

    If this is the case, I donā€™t think a mark of 136 has got to the bottom of his potential, and you donā€™t have to go too far back to see his Aintree maiden hurdle victory over the likes of Heezer Geezer (who was subsequently second to Stay Away Fay off level weights), Mexico, Ginnyā€™s Destiny, and Young Buster.

  • Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Three Nationals on the bounce, from Ireland to Aintree and now Ayr. Itā€™s all gearing up to be a fantastic seven days in the trainersā€™ championship, with Willie Mullins going all out to win the title after success in Liverpool. But now weā€™re in the seasonal period where the jumps criss-crosses with the flat, so weā€™re treated to two cracking cards today. Letā€™s see who makes the cut.

     

    Ayr

    Fortune In Our Favour

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    2:25 ā€“ Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade Two) ā€“ Favour And Fortune @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

    Favour And Fortune was last seen finishing sixth in the Supreme at Cheltenham, a race which was been boosted heavily thanks to a one-two from Mystical Power and Firefox at Aintree. Favour And Fortune also finished second in a Grade One at Aintree back on Boxing Day. However, heā€™ll like the ground and is weighted fairly, alongside the Pertemps winner Lā€™Eau Du Sud. Heā€™s got somethingā€™s in his favour in a hot contest.

    With it being a limited handicap, some at a bigger price may make appeal. Afadil is one. A consistent performer for Paul Nicholls, he easily won the Scottish County Hurdle in February. The he finished fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and was third last week at Aintree. He remains on the same mark and as a result, comes to Ayr in the lower order of the weights. Nice each-way play, 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

    Petit Tonnerre has been going chasing this season but didnā€™t work out for him and was hastily put over hurdles in the County, finishing one from the rear. For that performance, heā€™s been dropped four pounds, three pounds below his last winning hurdles mark. He was placed at this level last season and has every right to turn around a sharp drop. 20/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

     

    Git Making Us Rich

    3:35 ā€“ Scottish Grand National (Premier Handicap) ā€“ Git Maker @ 7/1 (General)

    Jamie Snowden has been actively prepping Git Maker for Ayr’s premier race. A stayer of some quality, he completed a hattrick of wins at the start of the season. He bounced back to form at the Festival when eight lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin, who impressed at Aintree, boosting the form. He also is unbeaten in Spring, with just two start in April and May, so will go well at this time year.

    My Silver Lining has been nothing short of impressive this season, never dropping outside the top three finish. Since his win at Warwick, heā€™s produced two gutsy performances on testing ground in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and in the Midlands Grand National. The Midlands National is often a precursor to this race and has only been raised two pounds. Ultra consistent, he shouldnā€™t be too far away from the frame. Each-way at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Ontheropes makes a little appeal for me. He hasnā€™t had a great time coming back from a long break, pulling up twice and finishing midfield last time out. However, he has dropped to a mark of 141 which was his last winning mark back in the 2021 Munster National. A lot has happened since then, but he is a proven stayer with a fourth in the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy (now Coral Gold Cup) to back it up. Ayr could be the track where we see him at his best. He might not look to have a chance, but never write off any Mullins horse. Long-shot at 50/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Call Up The Army

    2:40 ā€“ Greenham Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Army Ethos @ 15/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being bred by sprinters; Army Ethos did look as though he could go a bit further when finishing second in the Coventry at Ascot. Trainer Archie Watson had big hopes, with the Prix Morny or Prix Robert-Papin in his sights. Sadly, we didnā€™t see him again until he finished a little weaker than most though up at Newcastle. But the Coventry form is looking brilliant now, with Haatem winning the Craven, who Army Ethos beat. Everything points to improvement with this horse.

     

    A Winning Ticket

    Spring Cup Handicap ā€“ Thunder Ball @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    A trend with Thunder Ball is that he seems to go well after his first run after a break. And thatā€™s what today is. After a decent enough finish in the Lincoln, he looks to go a bit better on good-to-soft ground, which he likes. He stays at his mark of 101, with Alec Voikhansky taking off five pounds. He improved a lot last season and will make a nice handicapper throughout this season.

    Racingbreaks Ryder is another who goes well in the Spring with his only win of the season last year coming in May. He then never impressed in any other handicaps, but is now down to a likeable mark. Heā€™s only one above last yearā€™s winning mark, which makes him appealing at 18/1 (BetUK).

    Alpha Crucis is another that goes well at the start of the season. A winner at Windsor last April saw her book end it with a win at Goodwood in October. She had a good run in the Lincoln, finishing fourth which the handicapper has dropped her a pound for. He comes into this race at the very bottom of the weights, further enhanced with Anna Gibson taking a further seven pounds off. Every right to run well at 22/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Aintree is now firmly in the rearview mirror, and as the 2023/24 National Hunt Season comes to a close, itā€™s time to take a look at the races on Scottish Grand National Day.

    Last weekā€™s Aintree Grand National meeting was successful for the column as we achieved 11.95pts of profit, helping to bring the overall tally since the start of March to 3.35pts of profit.

    No doubt, the last few months havenā€™t reeled in a mountain of success, but letā€™s hope this run of form can continue.

     

    1:15 Ayr ā€“ Persian Time @ 6/1 with BetVictor ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Sans Bruit did the job for us at Aintree and for that, we can only offer our thanks, but a 10lb hike for the success is steep as he beat horses who were towards the top of their handicap mark after getting an easy lead from the front.

    He demands respect, but Persian Time is a horse who might have a few pounds over the handicapper.

    The six-year-old has shown his class this season as heā€™s won twice and finished second once, though that defeat came at the hands of Djelo at Newbury on his first run of the season, and Djelo has since improved 12lbs and won a Grade 2.

    Although he benefitted from an Authorised Speed fall at Ascot, Homme Public (the runner-up) won a valuable race on his next start to frank the form

    Furthermore, both Djelo and Soul Icon ā€“ the horse he beat on his latest start at Kempton when the Nicky Henderson yard was massively out of form ā€“ have good form with Master Chewy, a horse who came a head away from beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novicesā€™ Chase at Aintree.

    That bodes well for Persian Time, and with his form at the track from last seasonā€™s second in a handicap hurdle, he is a nice unexposed type running off 136.

     

    1:50 Ayr ā€“ Deeper Blue @ 7/1 with William Hill & Maclaine @ 9/1 with Boylesports ā€“ 1pt EW for both

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    The Ā£50,000 CPMS Novicesā€™ Champion Handicap Chase has an interesting feel about it this year as the favourite is as big as 13/2.

    However, Iā€™m splitting my stakes here as I want both Deeper Blue and Maclaine on my side.

    Starting with the former, he represents the on-fire Harry Fry yard (40% strike rate over the last two weeks) and sports first-time cheekpieces, something Fry has a good record with.

    The eight-year-old has tended to race a bit behind the bridle this season ā€“ so the cheekpieces make sense ā€“ but his second to Henryā€™s Friend when receiving just 1lb looks like good form as the winner won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novicesā€™ Chase on his next start.

    Furthermore, Rock My Way was five lengths behind in third and he ran into Makinā€™yourmindup on his next start; Makinā€™yourmindup won after that and then ran into a well-handicapped Cap Du Nord.

    Deeper Blue was beaten by a well-handicapped Neon Moon on his last start, but he sprinted well clear of the third and he looks ready to put in another big effort here.

    However, a horse that carries eight pounds less is Maclaine, looking to back up from last monthā€™s facile Newbury success.

    The improving seven-year-old prefers better ground, but he comes from a family of soft ground lovers, so the described soft ground at Ayr (plus a day of dry weather) should be okay.

    The manner of his victory at Newbury was impressive ā€“ one of a progressive horse ā€“ and he ran into Prairie Wolf at Doncaster in December.

    Prairie Wolf has since finished fourth to Ginnyā€™s Destiny at Cheltenham and then won twice more, so the form of that race is solid.

     

    2:05 Newbury ā€“ Relief Rally @ 3/1 with BetVictor ā€“ 1pt Win

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    The big question with Relief Rally in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes is whether will she stay seven furlongs, and thatā€™s why her price is probably bigger than it should be.

    She was a small two-year-old and showed plenty of speed, but a lot went wrong for her at York on her first start at six furlongs and she had to battle late on to get up by a length.

    That showed promise of staying further to my eye, and you donā€™t have to go that far back through her pedigree to find horses who won over 1m1f and even went two-mile hurdling.

    I think this filly by Kodiac is riddled with ability, and although there is doubt over whether she has trained-on to become a proper three-year-old, this is a beatable field on all known pieces of form.

     

    4:10 Ayr ā€“ Masaccio @ 10/3 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt Win

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    Regular watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know my confidence behind Masaccio for the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Aintree. Still, as it turns out, it was probably a good idea to skip Aintree.

    Connections have swerved Aintree to come to Ayr instead, and they are happy to step him up in trip to three miles.

    After his Kempton success, with a wry smile, Alan King suggested during his post-race Racing TV interview that the Grade 1 Sefton Novicesā€™ Hurdle over three miles was under consideration, but with an unchanged mark of 129 after that easy Kempton success, theyā€™ve found a suitable handicap option with him on a potentially better surface than that of Aintree or Kempton.

    Welcom To Cartries is a highly-touted horse for Paul Nicholls, but his rating of 130 is one-pound higher than Masaccio’s.

    On all-known form, notably when finishing a close second to Jinko Blue (now rated 140) while giving 6lbs away at Newbury, Masaccio should have a higher rating than Welcom To Cartries, but he doesn’t.

    On that evidence, he looks like a solid bet at 7/2.