Best Of Bets

Tag: frankie dettori

  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

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    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

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    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

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    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s that time of year. The sun is shining, the suits are hired, it must be Royal Ascot. Top hats galore and top-class action from all around the world. Australia and America join in today, along with British and Irish. Day One is set to be a cracker. Here are my selections and naps for the one of the best meetings of the Summer.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    PADDINGTON TO BEAR THE BRUNT

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    NAP: St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    There are many races this week which punters are saying are ‘the races of the week’. This is one of them, with the English and Irish Guineas winners facing off. Chaldean is 3lbs higher than his Irish counter-part, 119 to 116. But there is one thing that lets the Frankel colt down. The draw. Since the turn of the millennium, four winners have come from stall one. Many horses are boxed in on the rail and haven’t room to move. Paddington is drawn wide in eight, and if he can get a better start he had in the Irish Guineas, he’ll be hard to get past. Read more on his chances on Best Of Bets.

    Keep an eye out for Indestructible, the Craven winner. He’s already tipped up on Best of Bets, and he isn’t without hope. He underperformed in the English Guineas but has been kept fresh for this race. Firm ground will suit him, given he won by five-and-a-half lengths as a two-year-old on the surface, and a good outside draw in stall nine. 50/1 (General) seems overpriced.

    And don’t discount Isaac Shelby, who’s a decent each-way price of 9/1 (General). He won the Greenham Stakes, where Chaldean unseated. He almost made up for it when narrowly losing in the French Guineas. The ground will be a little firmer, and could go well, with a half-decent draw in stall three.

    PERFECT STORM IN THE COVENTRY

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    E/W BET: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Cuban Thunder @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)

    I feel Cuban Thunder is overlooked. He’s experienced enough with two races under his belt, including a win last time out, which came in the Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes. Lusail, Repartee and Queen Olly are recent winners of the race who haven’t had bad careers since then. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a good record when prepping Amo Racing’s two-year-olds. Kevin Stott has chosen to ride Bucanero Fuerte, but Rossa Ryan isn’t a bad substitute. Stand-side draw might be where the winners come on the straight course this week, worth to keep an eye on.

    MOORE AND MULLINS TO BRING IT

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    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Bring On The Night @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Willie Mullins is operating at a 57% strike rate. Over the jumps, in the off season. He’s a genius. He has a good record at the Royal meeting as well with four winners in this race. Those four winners came in a period of six years between 2012 – 2018. Ryan Moore was on three of them. Moore is currently operating at a 33% strike rate and has also won leading rider at Royal Ascot nine times. Bring On The Night has been raised 4lbs since last year’s second, and hasn’t been seen since. Bring on the Ascot Stakes I say!

    Keep an eye out for Themaxwecan who loves the firmer ground. He raced in last year’s race, finishing midfield off a mark of 97. After that race he went and won a race at Ascot over two miles on firm ground with Jamie Spencer on board. This time he’s 92, 5lbs lower than last year’s mark. He hasn’t got a great record over two miles, but with a good mark and good conditions he could certainly get a place at 40/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Modern Games @ 9/4 (Unibet, William Hill), Chindit e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Givemethebeatboys @ 4/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK), CUBAN THUNDER E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
    15:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Highfield Princess @ 5/2 (Unibet), Twilight Gleaming e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

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    16:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON (NAP) @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor), Indestructible e/w @ 50/1 (General)
    17:00 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) BRING ON THE NIGHT @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill), Themaxwecan e/w @ 40/1 (General)
    17:35 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Francesco Clemente @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor)
    18:10 – Copper Horse Handicap – Absurde @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • The Royal Ascot Treble: Paddington

    The Royal Ascot Treble: Paddington

     

    As a meaty Day 1 of Royal Ascot rolls on, the King’s Stand is followed swiftly by what looks to be a classic head-to-head in the St. James’s Palace Stakes.

    Spurred by the departing Frankie Dettori, Chaldean will be the popular choice of many but Paddington may just spoil the party.

    Fresh from Irish 2000 Guineas glory, can the 3yo give Aidan O’Brien a ninth race victory?

     

    Going full circle?

    Paddington has had a rousing eight months.

    Making his debut last September, the son of Siyouni picked up his first win at the Curragh a month later over 7f to close out last term.

    Staying at the same trip to begin this season, Paddington had not lost a beat over the winter, going back-to-back at Naas.

    With eyes on the bigger races, victory in the Coolmore back at the beginning of May then saw his stock rise.

    His value then sky-rocketed with said two-length Irish Guineas win.

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    Making a return to Ascot nine months on, all looks in place.

    However, his debut outing on the Berkshire racecourse could still be a lingering factor.

    Indeed, then fifth as the mount of Ryan Moore, it has been a flawless tale since, but Paddington does not yet have a win on home British soil – a statistic both horse, jockey and their trainer will be keen to remedy.

    So is Paddington’s trip about to come full circle?

    AP O’Brien knows hows to win this race and just like with the Guineas, dominates at the trip.

    Circus Maximus – also ridden by Ryan Moore – brought the spoils in 2019; Paddington looks poised to deliver.

     

    Cicero may reign on parade

    Aside from the sizeable threat of 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean, Cicero’s Gift stands as perhaps the other main contender.

    With an unbeaten record in three, Charlie Hills’ promising youngster has improved from debut at Newbury, to last month’s latest victory at Goodwood.

    Dominant over the 1m distance, can Kieran Shoemark make the step-up in calibre in their first Grade 1 race?

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    The other name that could thwart Paddington is Paul and Oliver Cole’s Royal Scotsman.

    A late money fancy in both 2000 Guineas races, the extra 3f in both proved a step too far for the green colt but will they prove learning curves?

    Set to go off a fairly big price once more and though yet to truly impress at Ascot, Royal Scotsman was, however, third in last year’s Coventry.

    If the market price tumbles into Tuesday, keep an eye on this spritely young thing.

  • SPOTY 2023: Dettori the early front-runner

    SPOTY 2023: Dettori the early front-runner

    Despite having only crept into the sporting summer, that has not stopped bookmakers going early for Sports Personality of the Year.

    And this year, it could just be Frankie Dettori‘s time.

     

    Dettori well-placed

    As the veteran jockey continues his swansong tour, victory aboard Soul Sister in The Oaks saw his odds slashed.

    Though Arrest did not play ball for an historic Derby double, Dettori is still gunning for big race wins before the flat season is out.

    Dettori is yet to win SPOTY’s main award.

    However, the Italian was third in 1996 behind Damon Hill and Sir Steve Redgrave.

    His memorable super seven at Ascot in September of that year, put racing back in the headlines.

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    To date, AP McCoy is the only jockey to have scooped the prize.

    In his 15th attempt, the 20-time consecutive Champion Jockey finally landed Grand National victory aboard Don’t Push It in 2010.

    Returning to Royal Ascot this year, Dettori looks set to ride the wondrous Desert Crown.

    Should the 4yo colt follow last year’s Derby success with a winning outing in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, he will be well-set.

    And after 35 years in the saddle, it will perhaps be a fitting send-off for one of Britain’s favourite adopted sons at 7/2 with Betfred.

     

    Ashes, World Cup could thwart

    For the moment, Dettori edges the betting and could be a sure thing come December.

    However, two particular events this year stand to deny him a first win.

    Firstly, with the Ashes beginning this week, England look to regain the urn after a 4-0 drubbing Down Under.

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    Having been pipped last year, Ben Stokes leads his ‘Bazball’ side against The Baggy Greens.

    A series win would catapult him into the box seat, however, both James Anderson and Stuart Broad in possibly their final Ashes, may rival their own skipper.

    Whilst Stokes is widely 9/2, Anderson sits at 17s with BetUK. Stuart Broad is rather weightier 50/1 with William Hill.

    The other strong competition to Dettori’s hopes come in the shape of the FIFA Women’s World Cup.

    A year on from winning UEFA Women’s Euro 2022, England’s Lionesses are one of the favourites for glory.

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    Ranked number four in the world, England beat Brazil in the recent Finallissima at Wembley.

    The US and German ladies will be tough to eventually conquer but there is very real optimism that England could return from Australia and New Zealand with the trophy.

    Should that happen, Team of the Year will surely be sewn up for a successive year.

    Not only that, but after Beth Mead won SPOTY last year, stand-in England skipper Millie Bright and forward Alessia Russo may become picks for top honours.

    Of the two, as an injured Leah Williamson watches on from home, Bright looks the better hope but still for a meaty 28/1 with BetVictor.

     

    Cavendish tops outsiders

    Two other potential names are Mark Cavendish and Keely Hodgkinson.

    In the case of former, The Manx Missile won SPOTY in 2011 and in this summer’s Tour De France can make history.

    With both Cav and Eddie Merckx sitting on 34 stage wins, Cavendish needs just one win to move clear.

    Meanwhile, Hodgkinson will look to win 800m Gold at the World Athletics Championships in August.

    Held this year in Budapest, the Lancashire middle distance goes up against both last year’s champion Athing Mu and Kenya’s Mary Moraa.

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    If successful, the 21-year-old will go one step further to the silver she took at Tokyo 2020.

    Kelly Holmes won SPOTY in 2004 for her historic 800-1500m double in Athens that year; Should Hodgkinson take the podium top spot, her odds may tumble.

    Cavendish remains the shorter price between 10s and 16/1, whilst Hodgkinson is a loftier 25/1 – again with William Hill.

  • Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    After a Frankie Friday, it’s the big day on the Downs. Derby Day. It’s one of the most unpredictable yet. Arrest went into favouritism last night, but is he the one to win the big race? And who will win the the Dash? All those questions will be answered, as we take a look at four of the Best Bets on Derby Day.

    12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Kolasi @ 3/1

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    The aperitif to the Derby is the Diomed. And it doesn’t look the best of renewals, but Kolasi looks the best horse in the race. She is the only three-year-old, and is receiving a lot of weight from her rivals. Her form from four starts suggests that she’ll like the firm ground, and that she can handle undulation. There are plenty of unknowns and this is a step up in class. But the field, on paper at least, don’t look the best quality and are there for the taking.

    1:30 – BETFRED DERBY (GROUP ONE) – DUBAI MILE @ 18/1

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    The more I Iook at this horse, the more I think he’s overpriced. He’s a Group One winner as a two-year-old, beating Arrest by a head, and he’s versatile to the ground. On ratings, he’s only behind Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Charlie Johnston has been firing in the winners and has an excellent strike rate. Plus, Ahmad Al Shaikh, the owner, has had a decent record in the last three Derby’s, including Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal. His breeding suggests he’ll fall short of this trip, but Johnston horses always dig deep and can push further. The Dam’s sire was High Chapparal, so he does have some Epsom blood running though him. He has a decent draw in stall five, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I also like White Birch, for John Joseph Murphy. He lost by a neck to The Foxes at York and on the replay, he seems to be the one to take out of the race. Passenger looked to be staying on late, but didn’t seem to carry on much after the winning post. The Foxes looked to tough it out over the trip and not go much further. White Birch looks to be the one to take out. He’s by Ulysees, which means he will stay. His half-brother stays 1m 3F, which suggests he’ll get the trip. He’ll have to overcome a tricky-ish draw in stall two, but he looks to be one to watch at an each-way price of 12/1.

    Personally, I think the principles are hyped up. Auguste Rodin finished 12th of 14 in the Guineas. That’s the worst result of a Derby trial for any horse. How can he be deemed favourite? Favourites also have a terrible record in the Derby, in recent years. Aidan O’Brien can work miracles, but after such a disappointing run, he can’t be trusted. Arrest ran well at Chester, and he has the Frankie factor, but the ground is massively against him. John Gosden said Arrest will need a lot of rain overnight. He won’t get it.

    Which means by default, Military Order gets the nod. His stamina will be tested on firm ground, but he is a full brother to Adayar, and that points him in the right direction to win. But I think the ground might catch him out. He’ll certainly have a crack at the top three, so he gets in the tricast.

    Tricast: Dubai Mile, White Birch, Military Order

    2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Prosperous Voyage @ 11/8

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    Prosperous Voyage may not have returned well, but everything seems to be in her favour here. She relishes firm ground, she’s a course winner and the top-rated horse. She will have blown the cobwebs away at Newmarket and should be back to her best at Epsom and Frankie will make amends for Derby disappointment.

    3:20 – Epsom DASH (Heritage Handicap) – Clarendon House @ 15/2

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    It’s a little bit of a lottery the Epsom Dash, and it’s the same this year. But it seems the stars have aligned for this horse. Stall two has proven to be a good draw over the years, he’ll be right up with the pace, and has won five times on firm ground. The stable are starting to turn a corner with a winner last Friday and a second during the week, and Danny Muscutt may be riding on a high from his Derby heroics. If not, he’ll want to win this race. The form from the York dash played out last week, with Mondammej just beaten narrowly by Chipstead. It could work wonders here.

    Each-way plays are the way to go for the Dash, and Lihou is one of them. Middle to high draws are the favoured places to be, Lihou is drawn in 18. Plus, he is at an advantage, winning at C&D earlier this season at the Riband meeting. That was on soft ground, but he can perform on firmer. He’s also, only 2lbs higher than that win in April, and is running fresh off a narrow second at Goodwood. A good play at 12/1.

    Another play is Look Out Louis who has things in his favour over the flying five. In September, he won in similar conditions over the five furlongs at Haydock, and is only one pound higher than that winning mark. He looks to have blown the cobwebs away since the Chester run, and can be back to his best on the Downs, from a decent draw in six, at 12/1.

    The very best of luck on Derby Day!

    (And, Come On United for the FA Cup!!)

    All prices are from Betfred, proud sponsors of the Epsom Derby