Best Of Bets

Tag: Epsom Oaks

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    It’s the most anticipated classics of the season, as he we head to the Downs. Epsom hosts the 245th Derby on Saturday, but today it’s the turn of the fillies. The Epsom Oaks should provide some clues for the showpiece event, but is still a high quality renewal. Plus a great undercard to tag along too, including the Coronation Cup.

     

    A Mega Story

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    2:00 – Betfred Woodcote Stakes – Megalithic @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Two things need to match in order for a horse to have a chance. Good form and good breeding. Ideally, a sprinter’s family as this is over six furlongs. Megalithic cost 220,000 guineas and is from a predominantly seven furlong family. He has black type too, which is an added bonus. Only one horse has tested the form of the Salisbury novice, and the fifth placed horse went out and won. It signals quality, so Megalithic could go well here.

    End Of Story also makes appeal. He won his first race on testing ground, so will be more than glad that the ground has eased from his debut at Thirsk. His debut produced three winners and is by the smart sprinter Bungle Inthejungle and has bred Group One winner Winter Power. The signs look good for Kevin Ryan’s two-year-old. 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Forever A Softie

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    2:35 – Trustatrader Handicap – Al Mubhir @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Whenever soft is in the title, Al Mubhir is usually near. His usual stomping ground is the King Richard III Cup at Leicester, but goes near whenever the ground is soft. He’s been dropped a pound after disappointing performance at York. The ground was good that day, so will appreciate ease in the ground today.

    Fantastic Fox performed well when finishing third in the 2022 edition, but not so well in 2023. He can handle the track on that evidence. With a claimer on board, he comes down to a previous winning mark of 92. He has gone well on soft ground before, plus firm ground, so preference shouldn’t be a worry. Decent shout at 10/1 (William Hill).

    Bopedro has been incredibly well done by the handicapper after a third place finish at York. He’s been dropped a pound after a decent performance, which makes him even more appealing. He won an Irish Cambridgeshire on similar ground and has won off the same mark before. Epsom’s an unknown, but should go well off the mark. 11/1 (William Hill).

     

    Old Favourites

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    3:10 – Coronation Cup (GROUP ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 11/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    This is Emily Upjohn’s first race of the British season and was a little disappointing. But the big thing that she has in her locker is she won the race last year and loves Epsom, as her first race of the season. She has won on the ground before and the small field will suit her. She’s already top rated, but the mares allowance puts her four lengths ahead of her nearest rival Luxembourg.

    Hamish has been dealt a harsh blow by the markets. It’s clearly his trip, he won’t be pulled out because of the ground and regularly outclasses Group Three rivals. Despite his success at that level, he’s never won a Group One, but came second in an Irish St Leger. He is destined for Group One’s and has been a long time coming. 15/2 (William Hill).

     

    Diamonds In The Rough

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    4:30 – Betfred Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Rubies Are Red @ 7/1 (William Hill, Betfred)

    In order to find these diamonds, I’ve had to search and eliminate as best as I can. Despite Ryan Moore taking the ride on Ylang Ylang. Despite people saying she’s crying out for further, she’s not bred to go a mile-and-half. Ezeliya is, but the form doesn’t back her up. Forest Fairy is bred for the distance, but lacks experience.

    Rubies Are Red, however, has everything in her favour. Brilliant breeding, out of Red Evie who bred Arc winner Found, Oaks third Divinely and Best In The World, who in turn bred Oaks winner Snowfall. Another half furlong and Rubies Are Red would have caught the lagging You Got To Me and will more than relish the mile-and-a-quarter trip. Despite not breaking her maiden she looks tailor-made for Epsom.

    Another small diamond is Secret Satire. York has a knack for providing Epsom winners, and last year’s winner did cause an upset in the Musidora. Despite being bred by a sprinter, her mother offers her the attempt to go further. Coming on from York she should settle better and look more professional here at Epsom. 12/1 (General).

    But one shining light in all of this is Noel Meade’s Caught U Looking. Fourth in the Salsabil, she would have preferred a little more give in the ground like Epsom should have. She’s by Derby winner Harzand, which is a massive positive. She has lots of mile-and-a-quarter running through her bloodline and will be a threat. Stall One may have other ideas. Still worth a go at 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Dance Sequence Can Step To Oaks glory

    Epsom Derby Festival | Dance Sequence Can Step To Oaks glory

    As Friday signals the start of Epsom Derby Weekend, with a decimated field in the Coronation Cup, The Oaks can spring a surprise in the shape of Dance Sequence.

    The third of five unofficial classics this term, this race last year was won by Frankie Dettori and Soul Sister, not seen since last July’s Prix de Paris.

    Nevertheless, the previous year’s victors have set up a run for Royal Ascot, likely in the Ribblesdale Stakes.

    And, in the case of Godolphin, 29 years on from their last Oaks victory, Charlie Appleby and Will Buick could finally be on to a good thing.

     

    False dawn?

    Coming into the new flat season, Dance Sequence looked poised for a fruitful campaign.

    However, after falling short in the Nell Gwyn last month, something of a no-show followed at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas.

    His admirers have since fallen by the wayside, but the Oaks presents the perfect opportunity to show her undoubted pedigree.

     

    Stealing in

    The daughter of former Irish 2000 Guineas winner, Dubawi, much is still expected of Dance Sequence.

    This weekend, she will likely go off at around the 18/1 mark with Betfred, but that will do little to discourage the Newmarket stable.

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    Indeed, as we have already seen this term, Notable Speech nipped in to win the 2000 Guineas at a lofty 14/1 for the famous blue silks.

     

    Taking down AP

    Dance Sequence’s biggest competition looks to be the ominous presence of Ylang Ylang.

    As Aidan O’Brien looks for a 11th Oaks title, the King of Ballydoyle has won this race seven times since 2012.

    Like Dance Sequence, the filly has her own questions to answer after finishing fifth behind the revelation that was Elmalka.

    And like Godolphin’s hope here, comes from rich racing blood in the shape of Frankel.

    Yes the posers are there for Ylang Ylang, but with the softer ground, the filly looks better set to impress.

    The going for the 1000 Guineas was good and her last two wins have been on soft turf.

    And boy, did this girl finish strong last October in the Fillies’ Mile.

     

    Outsiders

    Dance Sequence is currently one of the bigger outsiders for the Oaks, but two other runners at similar prices have decent chances.

    Not least Secret Satire, who proved a liking for faster ground as a sensational 22/1 winner of the Musidora at the Dante Festival.

    She could have issues with the turf on Friday, but then again posers were answered emphatically last time out.

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    Secret Satire is on the table at 11/1 with Unibet.

    Meanwhile, Trainer Ralph Beckett will quietly like the chances of his own Forest Fairy, who is unbeaten in two races.

    One of the few runners who have gone the trip – albeit on the AW – can she double up after the Cheshire Oaks earlier this month at 15/2 with 888sport?

     

    The 2024 Betfred Oaks takes place on Friday 31 May, race time 4:30pm.

  • Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    What a difference a day makes! Royal Ascot Day Two saw Mostahdaf light up the turf and beat the NAP Luxembourg, but not after giving him a mention. And the E/W Bet, Rogue Millennium stepped down in trip and delivered in the Duke of Cambridge. Thursday is Gold Cup Day, but the card isn’t overly attractive. But I’ve managed to dig through to hopefully find some winners on Day Three.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ELDAR TO GRAB THE GOLD

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    NAP: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Named after the famous MMA fighter, Eldar Eldarov has done nothing but impress. Last season he delivered an eye-catching run at the Royal meeting, in the Queen’s Vase which set him up for the St Leger. This season, he’s started rather well. A narrow second at York on firm ground was good prep for this marathon contest. He’s the highest rated horse, which is no surprise. The Gold Cup doesn’t look as sexy as we have had in previous years, and it’s Eldar’s for the taking.

    Keep an eye on Subjectivist, the 2021 winner. He ran a good prep race in the Dubai Gold Cup, which had been his previous prep for the 2021 edition. He’s back from a break of two years, shaped well over in Dubai and can improve from that today. Double figure price at 10/1 (10Bet, BetUK)

    ROYAL RARE-BET

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    E/W BET: Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – Caernarfon @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    I can’t wrap my head around how a top-rated horse, who finished third in the Epsom Oaks, is a double-figure price. She seems so versatile on all sorts of ground with wins on Good, soft, and placed on firm. She drops down two classes from Group One to Group Three, which might be more her level and a slight step back in trip won’t trouble her much. Jack Channon deserves something for training this horse, and hopefully he can get her over the line today.

    DAVID VS ASCOT

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    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Davideo @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    The handicaps today aren’t the best quality fields and I can’t seem to see any horse screaming out at me to make a case. Apart from Davideo. Surprisingly, recent winners haven’t come from the famous London Gold Cup, and tend to be found coming out of maidens. He has form finishing behind Mostabshir at Kempton, but hosed up at Newmarket on reappearance this season. He’s been given a fair mark of 92 and wide draw on the round course isn’t necessarily a bad thing

    Land Legend just caught my eye in this race. Chesspiece didn’t’ win his race yesterday and didn’t back up the form, but after turning to turf his form looks to have improved. A win and a second isn’t to be sniffed at, and a two-pound rise is lenient and puts him at a decent mark for the race. Each-way claims at 16/1 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Elite Status @ 11/8 (General)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – DAVIDEO @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Land Legend @ 16/1 e/w (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Al Asifah @ 8/13 (Betfred, BetUK)

    16:20 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV (NAP) @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    17:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Fort Vega @ 16/1 (General), Ramazan @ 25/1 (General) – Both e/w

    17:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – CAERNARFON @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    18:10 – Buckingham Palace H’cap – Northern Express @ 16/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    It’s the biggest two days of the flat season as the racing public descend on the Surrey Downs of Epsom. Day One sees two group ones, including the Betfred Oaks which could end up being the form race for the year. Here’s four of the Best Bets from Friday’s meeting.

    2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap – Fantastic Fox @ 6/1

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    Everything looks in his favour today. He should have his ground, he’s stepping down in trip back to his favoured mile, and he has a great jockey aboard to overcome a wide draw. His mark is five pounds lower than it was when he came third in last year’s race, and it’s a pound lower than his previous winning mark too. The only slight negative is that he is a Roger Varian horse, but the tide does look to be turning after he had a decent showing at Brighton on Tuesday. Fantastic Fox hasn’t won since he was a three-year-old, but he is due one, and this looks like the perfect race to break his duck.

    Austrian Theory is a good each-way price at 17/2, after his third at Chester last week. Charlie Johnston has a runner in the Derby and this could kick start a good week on the Downs for the Middleham trainer. Austrian Theory has had three runs already, but is stepping up to his best, after a good third at Chester, which could be a good prep for Epsom to handle the twists and turns. He’s on a good mark and the ground should be near perfect for him to challenge the top three.

    3:10 – DahlBury Coronation Cup (Group One) – Emily Upjohn @ 5/2

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    Emily Upjohn, should, be favourite. Both Westover and she handled Epsom really well, but Emily Upjohn was the one to take out of last year’s Oaks. She didn’t follow up in the King George at Ascot, but finished on a high last term. With a slight allowance it puts her on terms with Westover and Frankie is going to be fired up at his last Derby meeting. It’s a small field so an inside draw won’t matter too much, and she’s backable at the price she is.

    Little word on the outsider Tunnes, the German raider. His rating puts him on terms with Hurricane Lane, who has had a sketchy start to the season. Reading his form, he is a Group One German winner by 10 lengths. The ground may be a little firm, but surely his hat has to be thrown into the mix. Remember what happened with Torquator Tasso in the 2021 Arc?

    3:45 – Betfred Handicap – Marhba The Champ @ 9/2

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    William Buick takes the ride on the Kevin Ryan colt, and passes up the ride on Godolphin’s Honiton. He managed to fend off Marie’s Diamond at York, and has only been raised a lenient 2lbs. He holds a decent draw, and Ryan has put a tongue strap on him for the first timeHis performance at York was one of the best handicap performances of the week, and he can replicate it here too.

    Masekela has been thrown into this handicap, and seems to have been looked over. Fourth in last year’s Derby, handled the track well and his handicap rating has dropped below 100 for the first time. The ground will be in his favour and it’s a pairing we have seen before, Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. He will have to overcome a slight disadvantage with the draw, but it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. An each-way price of 11/1 isn’t bad either.

    4:30 – BETFRED OAKS (GROUP ONE) – RUNNING LION @ 11/2

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    Let’s start with the top two in the market. Savethelastdance was ultra-impressive at Chester, but what did she beat? None of the horses were bothered in catching her and she cantered to win by 22 lengths, in bottomless ground. It was the same ground for her maiden win at Leopardstown. She also lacks the experience for me. I don’t think three runs in a horses’ lifetime can prepare you enough for the challenge of Epsom.

    Soul Sister also falls into that category of lack of experience, although her win at York was better than Savethelastdances’ at Chester. She beat an experienced filly in Novakai and ran on well after the finish line. It’s also a question of how quickly can the horse be turned around, as York was only two weeks’ ago. The other thing is the breeding. She’s by Frankel, who as a sire, has only managed won Epsom Oaks winner out of the vast progeny he has had.

    This led me to Running Lion. Roaring Lion has a select but quality progeny, and has had a successful May in terms of winners. Running Lion won really well at Newmarket when we last saw her, but there is a question of stepping up in trip. But her pedigree shows that she is related to Cozone, who stayed two miles, and was out of Bella Nouf, which is Running Lion’s sire. This tells me there is staying power within the family, and she can prove it today. She has plenty of experience under her belt, and hasn’t been over-raced either. This has feels like a target for her and she can triumph over her stablemate, and the short-priced favourite.

    The very best of luck on Oaks Day!

    All prices are from Betfred, official sponsor of the Epsom Oaks and Derby

  • Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    The endless weeks of build-up have drawn to a close as it is the week of the Epsom Derby.

    The two-day event around the undulations of the Surrey-based track is just a few days away and we at Bestofbets.com can’t wait.

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    For me, the last few weeks of the Ante-post Analysis series have seen some good success; THE FOXES winning the Dante and CAIRO placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas are the main highlights.

    And as for last week’s The Top Three column, well, we will be discussing that on Friday.

    I won’t get too ahead of myself as you have to take the peaks and troughs with a good degree of level-headedness in this game, so I’m sure I’ll come crashing back down to Earth sooner than I would like.

    Hopefully, it is not this week as I have a few early fancies for the Epsom Derby weekend.

     

    Keen on the Queen

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    The Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday looks to be a cracking contest at the time of writing with 10 entered for the £100,000 race.

    Although another one of my cliff horses, Prosperous Voyage, is at the head of the market, my head has been turned by a different four-year-old filly.

    QUEEN AMINATU shaped like a filly going placed last time out on the all-weather as she stayed on behind an on-song Sacred over seven furlongs at Lingfield.

    That form, in my eyes, is worth a good deal in a race like this as she was three-wide around the bend having finished third to Sandrine, a Group 2 winner, and Sacred, a horse who has all the attributes of a Group 1 filly when she is 100%.

    Furthermore, on her only start at a mile, she blitzed her competition at Lingfield, a race that included Oscula, a three-time Group 3 winner.

    Although most of her form is on the all-weather, her second on good ground over a mile at Haydock last season gives me hope that she will handle conditions on Saturday.

    If she can continue her progression, it will take a good one to beat her and the 8/1 available with BetVictor is a good price.

     

    One better than Silver

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    It’s almost like I’m living in a world of deja-vu as my next fancy was put up here two weeks ago before being declared a non-runner.

    Alas, having heard that this has always been the target, I’m willing to go back in on SILVER SWORD at 12/1.

    His case is obvious on one piece of form alone as his fifth to Military Order three starts ago reads extremely well, something that could see another boost if Godolphin’s Derby hope obliges earlier on the card.

    Following that run, a good second to Empress Wu and a facile victory at Southwell has only bolstered his claims.

    Now returning to 1m2f, something that should suit on pedigree as his dam (Aurora Grey) won three times over two miles, he could make light work of his official rating of 82.

    It is a competitive field and he does need one horse to come out to run, but hopefully that occurs and he can light up the Downs.

     

    Bring down the House

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    And finally, in a showering of repetition, my final ante-post play of Derby Weekend is a horse whom I put up at York two weeks ago.

    He finished fifth on seasonal reappearance at the Dante meeting, something I hope puts him spot on for the Dash on Saturday.

    That’s right, I’m sticking with CLARENDON HOUSE at 7/1 with William Hill.

    Despite running a career-best according to RPRs, the five-year-old was dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his last run.

    For a horse who travelled like the winner for three furlongs, received three reminders from Daniel Muscutt, and just emptied on his first start for 240 days, the run at York was very pleasing.

    On pure numbers, his second at Beverley two starts ago when eight pounds wrong at the weights with Acklam Express (3rd) was great and the second to Raasel last season, a horse who would go on to improve 15 pounds, when giving five pounds away shines brightly.

    Now rated 100, just one pound higher than his last winning mark, the test of Epsom should suit, and he is my fancy for the Dash on Epsom Derby weekend.