Best Of Bets

Tag: Aidan O’Brien

  • York Ebor Festival Day One: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s the best Festival of the Summer as the stars head up North to York for the Ebor Festival. Day One has plenty in store, with the highlight the Juddmonte International. A race won by a pantheon of greats down the years, and this year may see another star win the biggest prize on the Knavesmire. There’s plenty of handicaps to get stuck into as well, so let’s take a look at Day One’s selections.

    Everyone’s Favourite

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Juddmonte International Stakes (Group One) – Paddington@ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Paddington is all the rage this year, and I’m still convinced he hasn’t faced a stern test yet. But that’s about to change as he faces some tough rivals who hold quality cards. Mostahdaf has had another break after stepping down in trip to win the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground; Nashwa is back on preferred ground after disappointing in the Nassau; and The Foxes is back at the scene of his Dante win, and off the back of a loss over in America.

    It may look easy, but it’s anything but for Paddington. There may be a worry for the ground as he has never run on it, but the way Paddington is produced in a race suits firm ground runners at York, as they are very hard to catch when out in front (just ask Quickthorn).

    In behind, The Foxes makes most appeal. His Dante win was likeable, he was very tough to fend off a determined White Birch, and it was clear that Epsom didn’t suit him. He just couldn’t make up the ground in the Belmont Derby, but he’s back on home turf and can certainly run a big race. I’d have the two on a reverse forecast.

    Continue To Push

    Embed from Getty Images

    Next Best Bet: Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous @ 9/4 (General)

    It’s hard to have an each-way bet in the other two group races at York because of the small field sizes. But for the lack in size makes up in the quality. I’m surprised Gregory comes to this race after his win over further in the Queen’s Vase, which he carries a penalty for.

    I much rather prefer Continuous, who I thought would be Derby winner, but has steadily improved throughout the season. Whilst King Of Steel showed his class at Ascot, Continuous wasn’t disgraced in second and has had a good break since. He came close in the Dante, so the track will suit.

    Fast Through The Forest

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Sky Bet and Symphony Group (Heritage H’cap) – Jm Jungle @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    If there is one rule when betting on handicaps at York it’s this. Always back Northern trainers. Northern trainers target these handicaps from April. And it works. Only Tony Carroll and Dean Ivory have broken through the Northern barricade in the last ten runnings of the race.

    And Jm Jungle is a horse who has been consistent throughout the season. On what could be a very good week for John Quinn and Jason Hart, Jm Jungle’s form figures this season has read 3324211. He faces another 5lb rise after his last win, which he can handle fine as he did with his last win. Another plus is he’s near the far side rail, but a small negative is he’s not near pace. But Jm Jungle can continue his progression and scalp his biggest win here.

    Another tip at York is back Tim Easterby in sprints. And he has a class outfit in Manila Scouse, who is becoming a typical York sprinter. Despite never winning on firm ground, his breeding suggests he is ground versatile. After his success in the racing league she comes here in fine fettle and can continue an upward progression in a big York sprint handicap at 10/1 (General).

    Small stakes for Shalaa Asker who will relish the firm ground, and could run a big race at 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet and Symphony Group H’cap (Heritage) – Jm Jungle (H’cap Best) @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports), Manila Scouse 10/1 (General), Shalaa Asker @ 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    14:25 – Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Cogitate @ 10/3 (General)

    15:00 – Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous (Next Best) @ 9/4 (General)

    15:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group One) – Paddington (NAP) @ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    16:10 – Stayers’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Themaxwecan @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Charging Thunder @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

    16:45 – IRE Fillies’ H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Radio Goo Goo @ 10/1 (BetUK), Lady Hamana @ 14/1 (General)

    17:20 – Nursery H’cap – Zabriskie Point @ 15/2 (William Hill), Mayo Neighs @ 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    After the Goodwood rain comes the Curragh sun. Regular racing is back for a couple of weeks, and it’s that time of the season where the attention begins to turn to the youngsters, as the first 2-Y-O Group One, the Phoenix Stakes, takes place over in Ireland. There’s also juvenile action from Newmarket, and interesting renewal of the Rose of Lancaster in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Shar To Dash

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:25 – Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Shartash @ 9/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood Surprisingly this season, the British have dominated group sprint races at the Curragh.

    Commanche Falls and Art Power are the two who have lit up Ireland’s premier flat course. But Shartash isn’t without hope. The allowance is crucial for him and allows her to become one of the highest rated horses in the race, and the better ground may suit him better.

    He may be drawn in the centre of the track, but he’s surrounded by plenty of pace, which should give him a nice gallop to latch on to.

     

    Unanswered Questions

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:40 – Phoenix Stakes (Group One) – Unquestionable @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Both Bucanero Fuente and Unquestionable deserved to have another go at each other again. It was a fantastic race with only a head separating them in the Railway Stakes. Both sons of Wootton Bassett look inseparable, but I think Unquestionable can reverse the result from last time out.

    Firstly, Unquestionable is drawn nearer to the stand-side rail, and it’s quite hard from a horse in stall one to make the journey over to grab it. There’s a good pace angle from Givemethebeatboys on Unquestionable’s outside, and if he gets over to the rail there’s a pacemaker for Bucanero Fuente to latch on to.

    Finally, the Phoenix Stakes dictate that Aidan O’Brien is never far away from the winner’s enclosure, with 17 wins in the race, including with the recently retired Little Big Bear last year.

     

    Newmarket

    Scorch The Turf

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Carolina Reaper @ 4/1 (General)

    Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the last ten years. In fact his record since 2014 is 1211231, with no runners in ‘16 & ’17. That’s a strike rate of 71% in the race for nine years. Carolina Reaper is this year’s offering from the Johnston team and looks really attractive.

    She finally broke her maiden in style last time out over C&D, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. Form-wise, the second came and won next time out at Lingfield and the third goes in the second race on the same card today.

    The rail helped her on her maiden win, but today she is drawn towards the centre of the track. She does have pace to latch on to in the stall to her outside, and in form jockey with Jack Mitchell can see her over the line.

     

    Haydock

    Shady Customer

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Midnight Mile @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Fillies haven’t got a great record in this race. In fact, a filly hasn’t won this race since Braiswick in 1989, 34 years ago. Surely this year will buck the trend when the exciting Midnight Mile is introduced.

    She won stylishly at York last time out, and the ground will be perfect for her this time around. A hefty allowance will put her up as one of the highest rated, and Oisin Orr is one of the jockeys to keep an eye on with a 22% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

    Embed from Getty Images

    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

    Embed from Getty Images

    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Doing A Rain Dance

    Whilst Europe is baking, we’re stuck with typical British Summer rain. But that’s not all bad, as there are some cracking bets to be had on a subdued Saturday. Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh, whilst Newbury and Market Rasen are the focus in the UK. Here is this week’s four to follow.

     

    Newbury

    SHADWELL SHOW

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Ehraz @ 12/1 (General)

    Shadwell have had a great record in the race in recent times, winning four out of the last ten. Jim Crowley knows his way around a decent Shadwell sprinter, and has also won this race four times. Blinkers are on for the first time, which can be seen as a positive in a decent sized field like this. And a nice middle draw should also suit nicely. With the rain on its way, it ticks another box for Ehraz as his best record comes on ground worse than good to firm. For Lezoo backers, she doesn’t have a great record on ground worse than good-to-firm, which is a big concern for me.

     

    Market Rasen

    AN OLD FAVORUITE

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:15 – Summer Plate H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Francky Du Berlais @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    It’s great to see a bit of Summer jumps action at Market Rasen, and at Cartmel too, and it’s also great to see a familiar name in their premier race. Francky Du Berlais has won this race for the previous two years, and won a right ding-dong against La Domaniale last year. La Domaniale is up 12 pounds from last year’s nose-off, but has improved massively since then and is a fair mark. Whereas Francky hasn’t won since, and goes off a mark one pound higher than last year’s winning mark. But he loves the track, and seems to come into his own in the Summer months. It could be a legendary three-peat for a legendary horse.

    Keep an eye out for Killer Clown, who came third off the back of a wind operation for the Emma Lavelle team. He suits the profile of a Summer horse, preferring good ground throughout the Winter, and his mark of 138 will suit him, condiering he came second in the Greatwood Gold Cup off the same. A nice 12/1 shot (10Bet, BetUK)

     

    Curragh

    WILD WEATHER

    Embed from Getty Images

    14:35 – Scurry Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Hurricane Ivor @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    There are two good reason why I’ve gone with this horse. One is because of the name, keeping the theme of the weather. And the other is because of this horse’s record in the rain. It has won five races out of 13 on ground ranging between good-to-soft and heavy, which isn’t a bad strike rate for a sprinter. His previous two starts at the Curragh have reulted in a win and a third, before not taking to the ground in the Wokingham. The other thing is that he is off a workable mark of 99 and a nice inside draw in four. There are lot of positives to this horse, even with the weather.

    Another horse who likes the rain is Blairmayne. His last two starts have been on soft/heavy ground and have resulted in a win and a tight third. He sprung up the handicap from a mark of 82 to 89, but is back to a mark of 85 and Blairmayne can take full advantage. Wide draws, aren’t necessarily a bad thing at the Curragh either. 14/1 is a fair each-way shout (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

     

    DANCING IN THE RAIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:45 – IRISH OAKS (GROUP ONE) – SAVETHELASTDANCE @ EVENS (BetVictor)

    The simple fact is on her four starts, three of them have come on soft to heavy ground and she has won two of them. She won one of them at Chester by 22 lengths, she ran a great race despite finishing second to Soul Sister, who didn’t back up the form in the Grand Prix de Paris. She has everything in her favour, including three stablemates to guard her so she can waltz home and pick up Aidan O’Brien’s third classic of the season.

    Azazat could be worth a punt on the without market. She has also won on soft to heavy ground and wasn’t too far behind Savethelastdance at Leopardstown. She is by a Derby winner, so there is no worry about the trip and could have won the Munster Oaks if she wasn’t bumped at the finish by Rosscarberry. She’s tough and might get a place if she’s lucky. 14/1 (William Hill) is her best price outright.

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow: Super Saturday

     

    It’s one of the busiest, craziest and most hectic days of the racing calendar. It’s Super Saturday. Newmarket, York, Ascot, even Chester, have big races on offer.

    Including the July Cup, Bunbury Cup and the John Smith’s Cup, it’s a punters’ paradise. Let’s take you through the three big meetings, and find the Best Bets.

     

    Newmarket

    Truth Be Told

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – Great Truth @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    This is one of the top two-year-old races of the season, and Godolphin have a great record in recent years. Native Trail and Master Of The Seas came from this race, and we all know what Native Trail did as a three-year-old. He has staying pedigree on both sides of his family, which won’t be a problem staying seven furlongs at two.

    On his debut, he was a little green at Leicester, but he won with plenty in hand, and you can’t discount a 5-and-a-half-length win. On past trends, and breeding, Great Truth has sold me.

     

    Two Blessed

    Embed from Getty Images

    16:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Bless Him @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Bless Him is now a nine-year-old, and has bucked the trends for this race as winners usually are between four and six. But he can still hack it at the top level, with an encouraging fifth in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. And he is only two pounds higher than his winning mark in last year’s race.

    It’s worth noting that Jamie Spencer is not riding on Saturday, so Callum Shepherd gets the leg up.

    Star Of Orion has been quite a consistent horse this season, with two seconds at the start of the season. But Ralph Beckett seems to have laid him out for this race, electing not to go to Royal Ascot, and keeps his handicap mark at 92. Which is six pounds lower than last season’s mark.

    He’s versatile on all grounds, and is good value each-way player at 12/1 (General)

     

    Little Too Big

    Embed from Getty Images

    16:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 4/1 (General)

    When the odds came out for the race, I was shocked that Little Big Bear was at 4/1.

    He got beat at Ascot, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad horse. He’s a super sprinter! In fact he does have a good omen on his side, most recent winners have come from the Commonwealth Cup, but they didn’t win it.

    Only Muhuraar has done the double, which doesn’t put Shaquille in a good spot. Plus the allowance that Little Big Bear is getting, puts him as the best rated horse in the race. For me, I wouldn’t be surprised if punters take advantage of this, and he’s backed down.

     

    York

    Saturday Spirit

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Spirit Dancer @ 9/1 (General)

    This year’s edition of the John Smith’s Cup is probably one of the best.

    Each horse has strong claims, but I’ve gone for a regular at York. Spirit Dancer has been in the top four for the past five races, and his rating has only gone up five pounds in that period. He loves the firm ground, although the weather may set in at the weekend, as heavy showers are forecast. But he is versatile, as he can run well on good-to-soft ground.

    Northern trainers always do well at York, particularly Richard Fahey, and he will have had this race in mind since he came fourth in last year’s renewal.

    I also like the chances of Millebosc, who makes his reappearance on the track after 227 days. Horses who have been off the track have won the past three renewals of this race, and Haggas will have set out this horse for the race.

    He’s only had one run in the UK, a fifth on the Lingfield all-weather. His record shows that his only win came on debut, but he did come third in a Prix du Jockey Club, behind St. Mark’s Basilica, so his Group  form could come through. 12/1 (General) is a respectable price.

     

    Ascot

    The Mighty Mighty

    Embed from Getty Images

    14:20 – Summer Mile (Group Two) – Mighty Ulysees @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    Another horse who has been laid off the track is Mighty Ulysees. He came ever so close in last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes, but didn’t kick on in his final two starts. Now he’s back, and he is rated as one of the best in the field, which must be taken note. He’s drawn wide, which shouldn’t be a problem for Robert Havlin. He can land another big Saturday winner for the Gosdens, who are operating at a 29% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    We’re all on the come-down from Royal Ascot this week, but there is still top-class action to be had. There’s big handicap action up at Newcastle, with the Northumberland Plate the feature on Saturday, and two Group One’s over at The Curragh this weekend. Here are four Best Bets over the weekend.

    KEEP IT BRIEF

    Embed from Getty Images

    12:55 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Brad The Brief @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    Brad The Brief is making his seasonal reappearance for Hugo Palmer, a little later than predicted. The ground on the all-weather at Newcastle is Standard to slow, which does give an advantage to those horses that prefer it a bit softer on turf. Secondly, his record fresh isn’t bad, winning twice out of five, those two coming in similar contests. He hasn’t run on the UK all-weather since a two-year-old at Wolverhampton. Price represents good value, against a horse who has an excellent record on the All-weather, in Tiber Flow.

    PLATE IT UP

    Embed from Getty Images

    14:05 – NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE (Heritage H’cap) – ADJUVANT @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    The Northumberland Plate is one of those races where you can, more often than not, find the winner. In the past 10 runnings of the race, the biggest priced winners were 33/1 and 16/1. If you head towards the market, you should land on the winner. Which is why I’ve gone with Adjuvant. He’s been kept fresh since winning a class three handicap at Newmarket, and was raised four pounds for that win. He was a regular feature in big three-year-old handicaps last year, being placed in the Melrose his best result. Talented Billy Loughnane gets the leg up, and rode a double at Bath this week, and jockey form like that can’t be ignored. And last time he was at Newcastle, he rode a treble. Step up in trip won’t be a problem, and all-weather should suit, given he’s making his debut on the surface.

    Staying at the top of the shop, Omniscient for the legend that is Sir Mark Prescott can’t be ignored. Makes his reappearance, off the back of a win at the end of last season, on the all-weather. He may have had a steep rise in the handicap, but Prescott must feel that it is a fair mark for him. He’s at a 33%, which shows evidence of his shrewdness and knowledge, and has a good chance to add the Pitman’s Derby to an illustrious CV. Omniscient with each-way claims at 10/1 (General)

    AN O’BRIEN FAIRYTALE

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:25 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group One) – Never Ending Story @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    Looking at this race on paper, it doesn’t scream Group One. We’ve had a few races like this, this season, and the quality doesn’t fill me with much joy. Which is why I’m taking advantage of the massive allowances that two of these fillies get. Never Ending Story is one of these, and has raced in two Group One’s this season. Both were in France, and both times she lost to Blue Rose Cen. In the Prix de Diane, she ran a second and was more suited to the trip. She may be playing second-fiddle, but I think everyone’s on the wrong O’Brien horse.

    Sunday

    STATE THE OBVIOUS

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:40 – IRISH DERBY (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal E/W @ 40/1 (BetVictor)

    Auguste Rodin will win it. The market says so, and everyone else does. He performed to his absolute best at Epsom, and should be as on song as he was at Epsom three weeks ago. Sprewell and White Birch did run on well in behind, but I feel that Sprewell isn’t group one quality, and White Birch is second-best. But Proud And Regal at 40/1 is an each-way shout that I can’t be having. It was the wrong decision to make him step down in trip for the Irish Guineas, but hat form stood up at Royal Ascot which benefits him. He was third behind Sprewell on heavy ground over 10 furlongs, and you felt that a step up in trip would be better than stepping down. The ground will be to his liking, and he’s a Group One winner (in France), which everyone seems to have forgotten. He’s also bred for a Derby, by Galileo, and related to a few middle-distance horses.

    The very best of luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    After a Frankie Friday, it’s the big day on the Downs. Derby Day. It’s one of the most unpredictable yet. Arrest went into favouritism last night, but is he the one to win the big race? And who will win the the Dash? All those questions will be answered, as we take a look at four of the Best Bets on Derby Day.

    12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Kolasi @ 3/1

    Embed from Getty Images

    The aperitif to the Derby is the Diomed. And it doesn’t look the best of renewals, but Kolasi looks the best horse in the race. She is the only three-year-old, and is receiving a lot of weight from her rivals. Her form from four starts suggests that she’ll like the firm ground, and that she can handle undulation. There are plenty of unknowns and this is a step up in class. But the field, on paper at least, don’t look the best quality and are there for the taking.

    1:30 – BETFRED DERBY (GROUP ONE) – DUBAI MILE @ 18/1

    Embed from Getty Images

    The more I Iook at this horse, the more I think he’s overpriced. He’s a Group One winner as a two-year-old, beating Arrest by a head, and he’s versatile to the ground. On ratings, he’s only behind Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Charlie Johnston has been firing in the winners and has an excellent strike rate. Plus, Ahmad Al Shaikh, the owner, has had a decent record in the last three Derby’s, including Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal. His breeding suggests he’ll fall short of this trip, but Johnston horses always dig deep and can push further. The Dam’s sire was High Chapparal, so he does have some Epsom blood running though him. He has a decent draw in stall five, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I also like White Birch, for John Joseph Murphy. He lost by a neck to The Foxes at York and on the replay, he seems to be the one to take out of the race. Passenger looked to be staying on late, but didn’t seem to carry on much after the winning post. The Foxes looked to tough it out over the trip and not go much further. White Birch looks to be the one to take out. He’s by Ulysees, which means he will stay. His half-brother stays 1m 3F, which suggests he’ll get the trip. He’ll have to overcome a tricky-ish draw in stall two, but he looks to be one to watch at an each-way price of 12/1.

    Personally, I think the principles are hyped up. Auguste Rodin finished 12th of 14 in the Guineas. That’s the worst result of a Derby trial for any horse. How can he be deemed favourite? Favourites also have a terrible record in the Derby, in recent years. Aidan O’Brien can work miracles, but after such a disappointing run, he can’t be trusted. Arrest ran well at Chester, and he has the Frankie factor, but the ground is massively against him. John Gosden said Arrest will need a lot of rain overnight. He won’t get it.

    Which means by default, Military Order gets the nod. His stamina will be tested on firm ground, but he is a full brother to Adayar, and that points him in the right direction to win. But I think the ground might catch him out. He’ll certainly have a crack at the top three, so he gets in the tricast.

    Tricast: Dubai Mile, White Birch, Military Order

    2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Prosperous Voyage @ 11/8

    Embed from Getty Images

    Prosperous Voyage may not have returned well, but everything seems to be in her favour here. She relishes firm ground, she’s a course winner and the top-rated horse. She will have blown the cobwebs away at Newmarket and should be back to her best at Epsom and Frankie will make amends for Derby disappointment.

    3:20 – Epsom DASH (Heritage Handicap) – Clarendon House @ 15/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s a little bit of a lottery the Epsom Dash, and it’s the same this year. But it seems the stars have aligned for this horse. Stall two has proven to be a good draw over the years, he’ll be right up with the pace, and has won five times on firm ground. The stable are starting to turn a corner with a winner last Friday and a second during the week, and Danny Muscutt may be riding on a high from his Derby heroics. If not, he’ll want to win this race. The form from the York dash played out last week, with Mondammej just beaten narrowly by Chipstead. It could work wonders here.

    Each-way plays are the way to go for the Dash, and Lihou is one of them. Middle to high draws are the favoured places to be, Lihou is drawn in 18. Plus, he is at an advantage, winning at C&D earlier this season at the Riband meeting. That was on soft ground, but he can perform on firmer. He’s also, only 2lbs higher than that win in April, and is running fresh off a narrow second at Goodwood. A good play at 12/1.

    Another play is Look Out Louis who has things in his favour over the flying five. In September, he won in similar conditions over the five furlongs at Haydock, and is only one pound higher than that winning mark. He looks to have blown the cobwebs away since the Chester run, and can be back to his best on the Downs, from a decent draw in six, at 12/1.

    The very best of luck on Derby Day!

    (And, Come On United for the FA Cup!!)

    All prices are from Betfred, proud sponsors of the Epsom Derby

  • Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    It’s the biggest two days of the flat season as the racing public descend on the Surrey Downs of Epsom. Day One sees two group ones, including the Betfred Oaks which could end up being the form race for the year. Here’s four of the Best Bets from Friday’s meeting.

    2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap – Fantastic Fox @ 6/1

    Embed from Getty Images

    Everything looks in his favour today. He should have his ground, he’s stepping down in trip back to his favoured mile, and he has a great jockey aboard to overcome a wide draw. His mark is five pounds lower than it was when he came third in last year’s race, and it’s a pound lower than his previous winning mark too. The only slight negative is that he is a Roger Varian horse, but the tide does look to be turning after he had a decent showing at Brighton on Tuesday. Fantastic Fox hasn’t won since he was a three-year-old, but he is due one, and this looks like the perfect race to break his duck.

    Austrian Theory is a good each-way price at 17/2, after his third at Chester last week. Charlie Johnston has a runner in the Derby and this could kick start a good week on the Downs for the Middleham trainer. Austrian Theory has had three runs already, but is stepping up to his best, after a good third at Chester, which could be a good prep for Epsom to handle the twists and turns. He’s on a good mark and the ground should be near perfect for him to challenge the top three.

    3:10 – DahlBury Coronation Cup (Group One) – Emily Upjohn @ 5/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    Emily Upjohn, should, be favourite. Both Westover and she handled Epsom really well, but Emily Upjohn was the one to take out of last year’s Oaks. She didn’t follow up in the King George at Ascot, but finished on a high last term. With a slight allowance it puts her on terms with Westover and Frankie is going to be fired up at his last Derby meeting. It’s a small field so an inside draw won’t matter too much, and she’s backable at the price she is.

    Little word on the outsider Tunnes, the German raider. His rating puts him on terms with Hurricane Lane, who has had a sketchy start to the season. Reading his form, he is a Group One German winner by 10 lengths. The ground may be a little firm, but surely his hat has to be thrown into the mix. Remember what happened with Torquator Tasso in the 2021 Arc?

    3:45 – Betfred Handicap – Marhba The Champ @ 9/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    William Buick takes the ride on the Kevin Ryan colt, and passes up the ride on Godolphin’s Honiton. He managed to fend off Marie’s Diamond at York, and has only been raised a lenient 2lbs. He holds a decent draw, and Ryan has put a tongue strap on him for the first timeHis performance at York was one of the best handicap performances of the week, and he can replicate it here too.

    Masekela has been thrown into this handicap, and seems to have been looked over. Fourth in last year’s Derby, handled the track well and his handicap rating has dropped below 100 for the first time. The ground will be in his favour and it’s a pairing we have seen before, Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. He will have to overcome a slight disadvantage with the draw, but it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. An each-way price of 11/1 isn’t bad either.

    4:30 – BETFRED OAKS (GROUP ONE) – RUNNING LION @ 11/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    Let’s start with the top two in the market. Savethelastdance was ultra-impressive at Chester, but what did she beat? None of the horses were bothered in catching her and she cantered to win by 22 lengths, in bottomless ground. It was the same ground for her maiden win at Leopardstown. She also lacks the experience for me. I don’t think three runs in a horses’ lifetime can prepare you enough for the challenge of Epsom.

    Soul Sister also falls into that category of lack of experience, although her win at York was better than Savethelastdances’ at Chester. She beat an experienced filly in Novakai and ran on well after the finish line. It’s also a question of how quickly can the horse be turned around, as York was only two weeks’ ago. The other thing is the breeding. She’s by Frankel, who as a sire, has only managed won Epsom Oaks winner out of the vast progeny he has had.

    This led me to Running Lion. Roaring Lion has a select but quality progeny, and has had a successful May in terms of winners. Running Lion won really well at Newmarket when we last saw her, but there is a question of stepping up in trip. But her pedigree shows that she is related to Cozone, who stayed two miles, and was out of Bella Nouf, which is Running Lion’s sire. This tells me there is staying power within the family, and she can prove it today. She has plenty of experience under her belt, and hasn’t been over-raced either. This has feels like a target for her and she can triumph over her stablemate, and the short-priced favourite.

    The very best of luck on Oaks Day!

    All prices are from Betfred, official sponsor of the Epsom Oaks and Derby