The Long Walk Hurdle headlines the action from Ascot today, and the surrounding card is very nice.
Very quickly, the P/L sits on 12.85pts for the month at an ROI of 49%, so the overall column is 54.9pts in profit at an ROI of 10%.
Anyway, let’s dive in.
1:50 Ascot – Fil Dor @ 13/2 with Betfair – 1pt Win
The graduation chase at Ascot on Saturday is a great race that includes three Irish horses, and I think Fil Dor could take this.
He’s race-fit, something Jungle Boogie and James Du Berlais lack, and I’ve always thought he would need a trip in time.
When running in juvenile races, he showed plenty of stamina, notably when staying-on behind Vauban in the 2022 Triumph Hurdle, but connections have waited to step him probably up in trip.
They milled about at two miles over fences for a while, and when he did step up in trip, he ran over hurdles in the 2023 Coral Cup.
Last season went better for him as he finished second to both Dinoblue and El Fabiolo over two miles, though the second half of the campaign petered out slightly.
Conditions should work and I’m happy to chance him at the prices.
2:25 Ascot – Blueking d’Oroux @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
Blueking d’Oroux produced a nice run on seasonal reappearance last month and, much like my selection in the last race, I’m hopeful he’ll come on for the run.
He finished around some nice horses in the Ascot Hurdle last month and he did well considering the race occurred on good ground over 2m3f.
Lucky Place, fourth in the Coral Cup, won the contest with the talented Golden Ace back in fourth when getting 10lbs from Blueking d’Oroux.
Although he won on seasonal reappearance last campaign, he produced a much better performance when beating Strong Leader over 2m3f on his next start which is obviously strong form.
He’s now five, so he could still improve, and I think he can turn into a lovely stayer this season.
He seems like a solid each-way prospect.
2:25 Ascot – Kateira @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW
However, I also want Kateira on my side as she can progress enough to win this.
Her Jango Baie form from Aintree is very good, and that specific form line got a little boost yesterday as Personal Ambition, the horse who beat him in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle last season, should have won the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot yesterday if not for his final fence mistake.
As a novice hurdler, she finished second in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle to Irish Point, and she was ahead of Hermes Allen, Letsbeclearaboutit, You Wear It Well, Springwell Bay, and Crambo that day.
The slightly better ground will suit her and I’m hoping the nature of Ascot will allow her to get three miles here.
3:00 Ascot – Flegmatik @ 11/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
Based on yesterday, it looked like a sound surface at Ascot, and that should play into the hands of Flegmatik off a good mark.
His last winking mark was 137, but Tristan Durrell claimed 3lbs that day, so today’s rating of 134 has him well-handicapped.
He beat a nice horse during his last win as Chianti Classico, the subsequent Ultima winner, finished second to him at Kempton in January on good to soft ground.
He also ran well off 140 twice last season in the Coral Trophy and another Kempton handicap, so three miles around Ascot will work.
Dan Skelton may have bigger targets for him in the new year, but he’s well-weighted to go nicely here and the conditions suit him.
3:35 Ascot – Kabral Du Mathan @ 4/1 with William Hill\ – 1pt Win
At an ante-post stage, Kabral Du Mathan looked a nice price, but his price has become tight now.
Still, much like when you’re pot-committed in poker, I’m calling to see what he produces.
He’s wildly unexposed for Paul Nicholls as he’s won all three of his starts, two of which for his current connections.
In a time when Nicholls’ horses have come on for their runs, the four-year-old looked smart when winning off 123 on handicap debut at Kempton last month.
Hopefully, he comes on for that even further, because if he does, he could well turn into a Graded animal in no time at all.
With a generous rating of 131 now, many horses have to give this classy horse weight and the better ground conditions should work.
