Four To Follow: Don’t Be Dower

After a chaotic Saturday, comes a calmer Sunday. We have more time to hone in on the Curragh and dissect the Best Bets from Ireland, on Irish 1000 Guineas Day.

2:45 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Luxembourg @ 3/1 (William Hill)

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This may be a small field, but it is bursting with quality. I was with Vadeni all of last season, and I’d love to see how he has matured now he’s four. I was with Bay Bridge when he caused the biggest upset of all last season, when beating Baaeed, but it was a disappointing reappearance in the Prix Ganay. Luxembourg won the Irish Champion Stakes last season, and was pitted as an underdog against Vadeni. But he was mighty impressive, and couldn’t follow up in his final start in the Arc. He didn’t impress first time out this season, but I suspect he was woolly and not up to full fitness. I’ve no doubt today he will be, and has the beating of the top two in the market.

3:15 – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group Two) – Insinuendo @ 3/1 (William Hill)

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This is Insinuendo’s level. She loves the Curragh as well, and has mountains of form to go on. She was disappointing, only managing fourth last time out, but she has the bounce back in her. She drops back from a mile and two, to just a mile which suits her perfectly, plus the drying ground shouldn’t be too bad, so long as there is a bit of cut for her to go on.

Keep an eye out for Star Girls Aalmal. She might not look group two level, but she did finish fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year, and runs well on drying ground. Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which can be a positive and she’s every right to run a big race at 12/1 (William Hill)

3:50 – Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Tahiyra @ 8/15 (General)

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Tahiyra is a cut above the rest for me. Dermot Weld said after her run in the English 1000 Guineas that the ground ‘slightly nullified’ her, which is her excuse. If that is what we have to blame, there should be no excuses for her getting her win today. Of course, people will look to Meditate as the value, but Meditate was beaten 11-and-a-half lengths by Tahiyra. Meditate is a good horse in her own right, but when Tahiyra is around, she can’t seem to get the better of her. Even at odds on, I have to take Tahiyra.

If you are looking for trends, then here is one. Out of the last ten running’s, six of the winners ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial. There’s only one horse this year who ran in that race. Dower House. She may not look the best pick on paper after failing to win a listed contest last time out. But, she is a sister to Churchill and Clemmie. She has the pedigree of a 1000 Guineas winner, but maybe not the profile. She might be in here as a pace setter for Meditate, but stranger things have happened… 50/1 (William Hill)

My tricast would be; Tahiyra; Meditate; Dower House

4:25 – Gallinule Stakes (Group Three) – Drumroll @ 6/5 (William Hill)

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Ryan Moore. Aidan O’Brien. Saxon Warrior. Favourite. Need I say more? If Paddington wins the 2000 Guineas of the Saturday it would make Drumroll odds-on. Possibly Derby horse? Maybe not, but watch out for the entries for the Irish Derby.

The very best of luck.

(Odds are correct of 18:30 on Friday 26/05)

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