Euro 2020 Value Bets, Specials and Dark Horses

So, we’ve already considered the candidates to win Euro 2020, but where else could you find real value across the markets?

If you’re after a dark horse for the tournament that could go far, Turkey picked up a number of impressive results in recent seasons and went unbeaten against France in qualifying for the tournament.

A team who have reached the semi-finals of both the Euros and the World Cup since 2002, The Crescent Stars could be a real surprise package, and are 11/4 to reach the quarter-finals, or 8/1 to make the last four again. Similarly, Denmark are embarking on a new era of real attacking verve in their play under new boss Kasper Hjulmand and a route to the semi-finals is entirely possible. 9/2 value can be found with MansionBet. For the other home nations besides England, Scotland and Wales both face tall tasks to reach the knockouts.

The Scots perhaps look best poised to advance however, with several Premier League talents in their ranks. For Scotland to reach the last 16 alone, £1 will treble your money with both UniBet and Betway at 2s. In Group C meanwhile – perhaps the most intriguing quartet – debutantes North Macedonia are expected by many to be tournament whipping boys.

Reaching a major tournament is a story itself, but the fairy-tale may not end there. With the Netherlands in uncertain form, the evergreen Goran Pandev could conceivably lead his side into last 16 over either Austria or Ukraine, and Betfair and Paddy Power’s price of 13/5 looks like tempting.

For the Golden Boot meanwhile, Harry Kane, for many, will take some beating to the top goal scorer prize after his win in Russia 2018. But, after holding a price of 5/1 earlier this week, Kane is now drifting out, at 13/2 with UniBet.

Are punters looking at England’s pre-tournament form and seeing their tough route to the final being cut short? Perhaps. Belgium’s hotshot Romelu Lukaku’s value has seen a similar tale in the past few days and the Inter striker who scored 24 goals in Serie A last season is now 13/2 with Bet365, noting also, that SkyBet’s odds have shortened from 15/2.

Casting our eye on the many special promotional offers bookies are making, SkyBet’s offering looks perhaps the best, as, if you place £10 on the tournament’s top scorer, every time they find the net, you will receive a £3 free bet with no expiry to use on any market.

Finally, for a Euro special that might take your fancy – or not in this case – England finally put to bed their penalty hoodoo during the last World Cup, but for the perhaps masochistic punter out there, the Three Lions are 4/1 with Betfred to be eliminated via spot-kicks.

Those with England allegiances, should however, all pray that does not happen.

How to find value markets and shortlist reliable betting ideas

Finding value requires combining form, fixtures and context rather than backing headline prices alone, and that means analysing group composition, likely rotations and recent head-to-head records. A measured approach that balances probability with market pricing helps spot edges where bookmakers may have over- or under-reacted.

Use multiple independent sources to track odds movements and market reactions, and focus on markets you understand such as team progression, scorer markets and plain match outcome bets. Cross-referencing prices across reputable UK bookmakers and noting where value shifts can produce a shortlist of sensible stakes to consider.

Dark horses to consider for tournament progression

Teams like Turkey and Denmark can present genuine value in progression markets when recent international form and home-grown tactical momentum are accounted for. Look at qualifiers, friendly results and injury lists to judge whether such teams’ market prices reflect their realistic chances.

Assess under-the-radar national teams on squad balance rather than reputations alone, and expect bookmakers to shorten or lengthen odds as team news emerges and public betting patterns develop. Betting selectively on a dark horse in a specific market, for example quarter-final berth rather than tournament winner, limits exposure while leveraging upside.

Assessing squad depth and knockout suitability

Squad depth determines how well a nation navigates fixture congestion and injuries, and teams with several Premier League or top-flight regulars often manage tactical changes well. A nation with a balanced mix of experienced defenders and clinical forwards may be more suited to knockout football than a side reliant on one star performer.

Player markets: Golden Boot contenders and price movement

Top scorer markets fluctuate with form, fixture difficulty and team tactics, so map potential scorers’ group stage opponents and likely penalty duties before staking. Prices for players such as Harry Kane or Romelu Lukaku will move with pre-tournament training reports, penalties awarded and expected minutes on the pitch.

Look beyond headline names to forwards in teams who will attack frequently and create chances, and compare specialist markets such as “anytime scorer” or “number of goals” to find sustainable value. If a striker takes penalties for a national side, that added opportunity can justify slightly shorter odds in the right context.

Comparing odds across reliable UK bookmakers

Odds comparison is essential to extract marginal value, and using price-comparison tools prevents missing small differences that compound over time. Always use licensed UK bookmakers and check for any specific market restrictions or maximum stakes that could affect potential returns.

Home nations and group stage advancement outlooks

Home nations often attract heavier public support which can compress and distort prices, creating opportunities in less popular markets and among other teams in the group. Scotland and Wales, for instance, may yield longer-term value in specific matchup markets than headline tournament winner prices.

Analyse group dynamics and potential knockout routes because easier round-of-16 opponents can increase a team’s realistic chance of deep progression. Markets like “reach last 16” or “reach quarter-finals” can offer wider value for teams on the cusp rather than backing them to lift the trophy.

What to consider before backing a dark horse

Check the manager’s tournament record, set-piece quality, and recent qualifying strength as indicators for knockout resilience, and remember that upset potential is higher in one-off matches where substitutions and tactics hold weight. Evaluate the draw and potential round-of-16 opponent to gauge the true upside of a dark horse bet.

Specials and bookmaker promotions to watch for

Specials such as top scorer boosts, enhanced multiples and money-back offers can improve value for well-researched bets, but always read the terms and conditions closely before participating. Promotional value should be judged on expected impact to stake management and whether the offer aligns with your betting plan.

Promotions that reward long-term involvement, such as free bets credited with no expiry when a player scores, can be useful if you already planned to back the selection. Avoid offers that encourage excessive wagering or larger stakes than your standard strategy permits.

Managing stakes and safe bankroll practices

Decide a staking plan before you place any bets and stick to risk management rules to avoid chasing losses or increasing stakes after wins, and consider flat stakes or percentage-based staking for tournament betting. Keep records of bets and returns to review strategy objectively and refine where you find consistent edges or mistakes.

How odds movements reflect public sentiment and team news

Odds shorten or lengthen as markets react to injuries, starting XI leaks and significant news, so monitor reputable news feeds and bookmaker updates during the build-up and tournament itself. Small, informed adjustments can be used to capitalise on market overreactions rather than reacting emotionally to headline shifts.

Where you spot large moves without clear news, consider waiting for confirmation or backing only a portion of the intended stake to hedge against volatility. Responsible betting requires discipline and avoiding temptation to stake above your agreed limits when prices move quickly.

Practical steps to place informed wagers responsibly

Only use licensed UK bookmakers and set deposit and loss limits on your accounts before staking, and never bet more than you can afford to lose as part of a balanced entertainment budget. If gambling ceases to be fun or feels like a solution to financial problems, seek help and consider self-exclusion tools available through operators.

For comparison of current offers, markets and bookmaker terms, you can explore our bookmaker comparison tools to make an informed choice if you choose to bet responsibly. All betting is for ages 18+ and should be undertaken with caution and within your means.

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Can a dark horse realistically reach the semi-finals?

Yes, a dark horse can progress deep if they combine strong form, tactical discipline and a favourable draw, but outcomes are never guaranteed. Always weigh squad depth and matchups before staking and remember betting is for ages 18+.

How should I approach Golden Boot betting pre-tournament?

Assess likely minutes, penalty duties and group difficulty, and consider backing players in multiple markets to spread risk. Keep stakes modest and use bookmaker comparisons to get the best available odds.

Are bookmaker promotions worth using for tournament bets?

Promotions can add value when terms are fair and they align with your betting plan, but never chase offers that require excessive playthroughs. Always read the T&Cs and use responsible staking limits.

What factors indicate a team is good value to reach quarter-finals?

Look at recent competitive results, defensive stability, set-piece threat and manageable knockout pathways as primary indicators of quarter-final potential. Avoid overvaluing short-term hype and rely on measured analysis.

How can I compare odds across UK bookmakers efficiently?

Use reputable odds comparison services and maintain accounts with several licensed bookmakers to lock in the best prices for your selections. Small odds differences compound over time, so consistency matters.

What staking method suits tournament betting best?

Flat stakes or percentage-based staking helps control variance across multiple matches and markets, which is especially useful in tournament play. Adjust stakes only when your analysis presents a clear, justified edge and stay within your budget.

Where can I find help if gambling becomes a problem?

If gambling stops being enjoyable, seek support through UK resources and use operator self-exclusion tools; talk to a professional if needed. Remember all gambling content is intended for ages 18+ and to be used responsibly.

Is backing a home nation more risky due to public bias?

Public bias can compress prices on home nations, sometimes removing value and creating opportunities in less popular markets instead. Evaluate objective metrics rather than sentiment and keep stakes proportional to your confidence.