Best Of Bets

Day: 26 May 2023

  • Tattersalls Irish Guineas Festival 2023: BestofBets at The Curragh

    Tattersalls Irish Guineas Festival 2023: BestofBets at The Curragh

    As flat season kicks into top gear, Betfred Derby Weekend is almost upon us.

    Before that however, all eyes on are on The Curragh this weekend for Irish Guineas Festival.

    With Saturday’s race the headline act, Sunday then sees two elite Group 1 contests with both the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Irish 1000 Guineas.

    Once again we’ve taken a broad look at the runners and riders in County Kildare and picked a favourite and a longer-value outsider to consider.

     

    Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (Saturday, 15:40, 1m)

     

    Favourite: Taking on both the runner-up and third-placed finisher of the 2000 Guineas in Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman is no mean feat.

    However, we are backing Aidan O’Brien stock in Paddington to take the winning post.

    A trainer with no less than 11 winners in this race, the 53-year-old from County Wexford last won with Ryan Moore aboard Guineas double-winner Churchill in 2017.

    Paddington comes into this with three wins on the trot after coming fifth on debut at Ascot last September.

    Not only that, but the son of Siyouni loves The Curragh – not marmalade sandwiches, allegedly – with a 100% record in County Kildare and on Irish turf more widely.

    Having drifted out to 9/2 with BoyleSports, Paddington could still be a smart bet.

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    Outsider: Charyn looks an interesting punt to do well at a price.

    Having come eighth at 66/1 in the 2000 Guineas, the Irish colt faded over the final furlongs after a prominent showing.

    Yet, a runner-up at Newbury last month, Charyn has shown the pace for the field even if the final yards prove an issue.

    We feel Newmarket could be a valuable learning curve for Roger Varian‘s ride however, and with two career wins to date, might be e/w value at 20/1 with William Hill.

     

    Tattersalls Gold Cup (Sunday, 14:45, 1m2½f)

     

    Favourite: After Adayar pulled out to focus on Royal Ascot, his defeated foe from the Gordon Richards Stakes, Anmaat, looks to have a clear ride here. Or does he?

    Bay Bridge could just upset the applecart.

    Taken down a peg with a loss to State of Rest in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes 11 months back, the 5yo beat Adayar in the Champion Stakes at the back end of last term’s flat season.

    This, like many names this weekend will be an Irish debut for the colt who was formerly rated in the top five horses in the world – alongside the likes of Baaeed and Nature Strip.

    Having previously gone unbeaten in five between 2021 and last year’s surprise loss at Royal Ascot, Bay Bridge looks ready for Sir Michael Stoute – a winner previously with Opera House and Notnowcato.

    Keen to stake his claim for a unprecedented Berkshire double in less than a month’s time, at around 3/1, is a price that could be profitable.

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    Outsider: For a longer shot however, we turn again to A P O’Brien and the in-form Point Lonsdale.

    Fresh from a win in the Huxley at Chester earlier this month, Ryan Moore looks poised once more.

    Ridden to victory by Wayne Lordan here last month, the horse beaten only once in four trips to The Curragh – by Native Trail no less – has to be a strong consideration.

    Given his start to the campaign and having shown his ability to cut through a field at the same trip, Point Lonsdale could be a heavyweight punt at weighty 12/1 (consult bookies nearer race time.)

     

    Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (Sunday, 15:50, 1m)

     

    Favourite:  As the ladies take their turn at The Curragh on Sunday, Tahiyra looks the cream of the crop.

    Set to renew rivalries with Meditate from the Moyglare last Autumn on this very track, the filly may have been the beaten favourite to Mawj on the Rowley Mile, but is gunning for a second home classic win.

    An impressive debut winner at Galway, her Aga Khan owner will be keen for a return to winning ways.

    That looks a good thing at as short as 8/15 with Betfred. Possibly the NAP of the weekend.

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    Outsider: For our third and final dash at a big priced hopeful, Breege gets the nod.

    As the British rookie makes her Irish debut after a French pilgrimage at Longchamp in the Prix Marcel Boussac last time out in October, could the youngster make a impact on season debut?

    Third to Lezoo in the Keeneland Stakes last July, Breege has shown calibre but will a step-up in trip prove taxing?

    In any event, having finished third at worst in all four UK turf rides, could the Brit raider steal in for another place at 33/1 with 888Sport?

    Hmm.

  • 14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    It’s Irish Guineas weekend and I’m looking forward to the next few days, not just for the action at the Curragh, but some great races from Haydock and York have perked my interest.

    But first, let’s take a look back at last week’s The Top Three article.

    Hands up, I got My Prospero wrong. The return to a mile wasn’t his gig, unfortunately, and the way he stayed on to the line having looked a lost cause at the two-furlong pole suggested to me that he will be tough to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    https://twitter.com/simonmilham/status/1659962615441833985

    And as for Loyal Touch, my sole representative in the London Gold Cup after Silver Sword was declared a non-runner, he finished just three lengths off the winner, who looks like a very good horse, in ninth; we didn’t get paid out on the day, but I’ll be keen to keep with him on his next start.

    The two losses put us at a small loss heading into week three on the P&L, but it is early stages and we are down 0.375 to a one-pound level stake.

    Anyway, let’s dive into Irish Guineas weekend with four horses to shout about.

    3:15 Haydock (today) – GET AHEAD at 15/8 with BetUK – 3pt win

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    Kicking off Irish Guineas weekend, I’m with a horse who I have mentioned for Bestofbets.com before and I’m retaining the faith, as well as slightly cheating by putting up a horse for Friday rather than Saturday, but she is my best bet of the weekend so it’s only right to be on this list.

    GET AHEAD was the NAP for me at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes and having been put up at double-figure odds before shortening to 7/1, the four-year-old went off at 10/1 due to the late rain that dampened her chances.

    Still, only being beaten four lengths by Vadream is not a bad result.

    Fast forward to today and she is set to make a step up in trip to six furlongs and run on the good to firm ground of Haydock, something that is music to my ears.

    I won’t go over her case again in the same detail as I did before, though you can click here to read the explanation from last time out, but it looks like conditions seem to be in her favour today and that step up in trip should suit well on pedigree (she is a half-sister to the Guineas winner Chaldean).

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    She has also shaped like a horse who wouldn’t mind the test of six furlongs son at 7/4, Get Ahead is the best bet of the weekend for me.

    2:40 York (Saturday) – ZARZYNI at 14/1 with BetVictor – 0.5pt EW

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    If Get Ahead makes us proud today, this could have a link to the chances of ZARZYNI in the valuable five-furlong handicap at York tomorrow as Silky Wilkie, the four-year who was ahead of Get Ahead at Newmarket, beat Zarzyni on his last start. That is collateral form, admittedly, but it still counts for something.

    Unfortunately for myself, and others who have had enough of me talking about horse racing, this David & Nicola Barron-trained six-year-old is a cliff horse of mine, however, I think today could be the day to catch him.

    Examining his last run on good to soft, a going description he maybe isn’t the most effective on, he had a horrid run through from the rear of the field and once it opened up, Silky Wilkie was too far gone and Ben Curtis was able to guide him home to finish a staying-on fifth.

    The handicapper kindly dropped him one pound for the run and he rocks up to York on Saturday with an official rating of 96, three pounds below his last winning mark.

    Therefore, with a run under his belt and race fitness hopefully at 100%, the 14/1 for Zarzyni is attractive and is worth the each-way bet at York.

    3:00 Haydock (Saturday) – Little Big Bear at 7/4 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Little Big Bear is the joint-shortest-priced horse I will be backing this weekend and again, he is another whom I have mentioned in a Bestofbets.com article, however, that time it was for the Guineas and tomorrow, he returns to a former-winning distance of six furlongs.

    The run at Newmarket was too bad to be true; he was keen from the start, had to deal with soft ground (which is still a small unknown), was trying a mile for the first time, and he was struck into, something that resulted in him being lame after the race. Pick and choose which excuse you want to use for the Guineas because he does have them, and they are real excuses.

    I’ve seen a few people wonder if the son of No Nay Never has trained on from his superstar two-year-old season, and I see no reason to suggest why he wouldn’t have.

    His dam, Adventure Seeker, only raced as a three-year-old, as did his half-brother American Graffiti, and she won a Listed event in France on her penultimate start.

    Of course, his sire was unbeaten as a juvenile before losing on his first start at three, but he still won the Group 3 Woodford in Keeneland before finishing second in a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, a run that was his career-best performance on RPRs.

    Aidan O’Brien’s European champion two-year-old has already beaten Bradsell, who reappears tomorrow in the Sandy Lane, and there aren’t many others in the contest that would worry me, so I’m hoping that ‘The Bear’ can put in a performance to savour at Haydock tomorrow for the Irish on their Guineas weekend.

    3:30 Haydock (Saturday) – Dramatised at 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Remember when we all thought Dramatised was a world-beater after her Royal Ascot win in the Queen Mary?

    Although the form may not be the strongest now, the head-to-head record between Dramatised and The Platinum Queen reads 2-0 in favour of the Karl Burke runner having also beaten tomorrow’s favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Both times, The Platinum Queen was running off the same weight as the Showcasing filly and both times she was well beaten, so with the now Roger Varian-trained three-year-old set to give five pounds away, I think there is plenty of reason to take her on with Dramatised and hope that the scoreline lengthens by the time Saturday is finished.

    Of course, there are 12 other runners for Dramatised to try and beat, but similarly, they are having to give weight away to a horse that is officially the joint-third highest-rated horse in the contest and I think the angle that she is coming into the race fresh and on the quick ground should suit very well.

    If you can get 5/1 anywhere, the each-way play doesn’t look too bad at all, but I will be siding with the 9/2 available with Betvictor for Dramatised in the Group 2 Temple Stakes as a win bet.

    P&L: -0.375 (after two weeks)