Best Of Bets

Tag: Nico De Boinville

  • Four To Follow: An Unexpected Twist? – November Meeting Day 2

    Four To Follow: An Unexpected Twist? – November Meeting Day 2

    What a way to get started to the November meeting Cheltenham. An unexpected winner in Minella Missile (tipped up here) and Triple Trade making some money for the column. However, Saturday is the big day. The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes centre stage, plus a multitude of handicaps to get stuck into. This week’s Four To Follow is…

     

    Not A Big Risk

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    1:45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Good Risk At All @ 15/8 (BetVictor)

    Sam Thomas is one of the emerging target trainers, meaning he targets certain races well. And with Good Risk At All he has placed him in good company. Some may argue that he got lucky at Carlisle when Giovinco fell. But I beg to differ. He was more stronger going to the line, with plenty in hand. I can’t trust Mister Coffey, not with his last win coming in 2019.

    Alaphilippe is one to consider for the place, or w/o, market. His record at Cheltenham is not half bad, despite his runs being on the new course. But a tighter track may suit going over stiffer fences, and 13/2 (William Hill) is something I can’t leave alone.

     

    You’re Invited!

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    2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup – Unexpected Party @ 11/2 (Unibet, Boylesports, BetUK)

    As soon as Dan Skelton announced he had this race in mind for Unexpected Party after his victory at Chepstow last month, I had to have him. I had a rare antepost bet with Unexpected Party as soon he beat Knappers Hill, who was a class act last week at Wincanton. His record on similar surfaces is perfect and has competed on the Old Course coming second. I hope the form and conditions play into his favour.

    A second selection is Easy As That. As soon as I saw what price he was during the week, I thought to back it. Now I look at his price, I regret it. But I will still back him at an each-way price. His reappearance record is astonishing; 1124211. With four wins and two places, who am I to argue against a Venetia Williams horse first time out at 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    And I have to give a mention to Il Ridoto. He is a regular over this C&D, or is since last season, and it’s his bread and butter. With Harry Cobden jocked aboard Stage Star, the exciting Freddie Gingell gets the call up for Chris Giles’ horse. With seven pounds taken off him, he falls to under a pound of his last winning mark which was here on Trials Day. 10/1 (Unibet) is a really attractive price.

     

    Spring In Autumn

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    3:30 – Intermediate H’cap Hurdle – Springwell Bay @ 2/1 (General)

    There’s a question why Springwell Bay has been dropped three pounds for finishing mid division in a Grade One. He’s back to a winning mark as a novice, on ground which he relishes, with a trainer who is in decent form. Jonjo O’Neill will want to leave with a winner at this meeting and this is possibly his best chance.

    Londonofficecallin looks like he has gotten off lightly by the British handicapper. Rated the lowest weighted in the field, yet raised 16lbds, he has been on the upgrade all Summer for Emmet McNamara. Despite being three pounds out of the handicap, he’s still bottom weight and has place value at 11/2 (General)

     

    How Easy?

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    4:05 -Mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) – Easy Peasy @ 11/2 (General)

    I can’t believe that Willie’s in the bumper is favourite for this race. If we are going on what happened at the October meeting, this Mullins flat horse has just been sent over for some sort of practise and won’t be seen at the Festival. Easy Peasy has won both of her starts by a combined margin of five-and-a-half-lengths and can adapt to more tacky conditions to give de Boinville and Henderson a back-to-back Lucky Last.

    Although, we’ll be on the karaoke if Disco Daisy wins the bumper. She’s got good value, especially when three horses she has beat have been placed in future runs. With Minella Missile using Chepstow to her advantage, could we see Emma Lavelle training a similar type for the future? 10/1 (William Hill, 888Sport) is a price I can get involved in.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Grand National Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Irish Grand National Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    For the opening week of my ante-post column for BestofBets.com, I’m happy with how things turned out with the Irish Grand National just around the corner.

    Saga wasn’t declared – but if anyone followed me on my Twitter (@ASymondsJourno) they would have found the Lincoln winner with Migration -, Sleeping Lion ran okay but couldn’t get past fifth, and Fast Response, put up at 12/1, went off the 4/1 joint-favourite and finished second to Vadream.

    All in all, a fair weekend.

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    With this in mind, while many will be on Easter egg hunts all weekend, I have been on the hunt for a few ante-post winners and I have a few horses leading the line.

    However, I did take a deep look into all of the action over on the latest Only Fools Love Horses video, which was sponsored by BestofBets.com.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    All hail the King

    HORSE: King Of Bavaria

    RACE: tote World Pool Scottish Sprint Cup (Saturday, 3:00)

    PRICE: 12/1

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    This is a very nice race and I’ve had to wait until Wednesday to pull the trigger as he was entered for the all-weather finals at Newcastle, however, connections have not declared him, and it looks like they are set to run him on the turf up at Musselburgh instead.

    With 6-10mm of rain predicted across Wednesday and Thursday, the already Good to Soft ground could end up being soft by the time racing starts.

    With that in mind, KING OF BAVARIA looks to be unexposed off a mark of 97 for Michael Appleby.

    The former Aidan O’Brien gelding was a $300,000 yearling and sold to Craig & Laura Buckingham for one-sixth of that price four months ago.

    For the master of Ballydoyle, he won his first two starts on the track on soft ground and ran a good race in defeat when looking a bit green in the Listed Committed Stakes at Navan behind New York City, Cadamosto, and Straight Answer, all horses who are rated between 105 and 110.

    Following an average autumn in handicaps over in Ireland and one appearance in the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes, he moved over to the UK this winter.

    Two conservative runs at Southwell and Lingfield preceded a nice run over six furlongs last time out at Newcastle off Saturday’s handicap mark and a return to five furlongs on turf should see him at his best.

    For reference, he won a Naas handicap on heavy ground on his second start off a two-pound lower mark and he looked impressive then, so for this former 105-rated gelding, I hope he can be competitive on Saturday.

     

    Grand price in the National

    HORSE: Champagne Platinum

    RACE: Boylesports Irish Grand National

    PRICE: 33/1

    There are two horses heading my fancies for the Irish National, both at varying ends of the handicap.

    The main selection is CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM for Enda Bolger in the famous green and gold silks of JP McManus.

    Having finished a staying-on eighth last year off a three-pound lower mark, this nine-year-old ran a super race behind a trio of Gigginstown horses in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown in February.

    The ground is set to be very testing at the Irish track on Monday and this gelding has good form in softer conditions having finished second to Death Duty last year off a one-pound higher mark after beating Ain’t That A Shame, the now 146-rated horse, in a beginners’ chase the start before.

    All of the reasons mentioned above would point to a big run, it’s a competitive race, but I’m willing to side with the gallant grey for the €500,000 contest.

    However, flying the flag for the British in the race, 25/1 about ROYALE PAGAILLE is extremely interesting to me.

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    What are the defining factors that this Venetia Williams-trainer nine-year-old needs? A marathon trip. Check. Bottomless ground. Check. A handicap. Check.

    Believe it or not, Royale Pagaille’s official mark of 160 is his lowest handicap rating for two years and having bolted up in the 2022 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase on soft ground off 163, he looks to be well-in.

    A 16-length victory in the 2021 renewal of the formerly mentioned Peter Marsh off just a four-pound lower rating on heavy ground also reads extremely well and he holds a 100% record in handicaps, a stat that not many horses can reel off.

    I wouldn’t put anyone off backing both horses each way at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively, and the more I look at it, the more I’m getting excited about the latter.

  • Galopin De ‘Champion’ in Gold Cup

    Galopin De ‘Champion’ in Gold Cup

    A new age of staying chasers has been cast on horse racing as Galopin Des Champs put in a superb display of equine brilliance to land the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday.

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    Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old locked horns with King George-winner Bravemansgame up the famous Cheltenham hill in the blue-ribboned event, but it was the younger competitor who came out on top in a classic renewal of the £625,000 event.

    Having infamously fallen at the final fence in last year’s Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase when clear favourite, something that was described as a “fright” by jockey Paul Townend, Galopin Des Champs built on his Irish Gold Cup victory from last month on the biggest stage of them all, running to a ‘Racing Post Rating’ of 184 and being given Timeform rating of 181.

    “We elected him as our Gold Cup horse where as Al Boum Photo sort of happened,” explained Mullins. “With this fellow we thought he was good enough and that puts you under pressure until the actual day when it has happened and now it has happened.”

    “I didn’t realise what pressure I was under. I’m absolutely delighted for Audrey and Greg Turley and for Paul (Townend), who was under huge pressure to, but he gave him a peach of a ride. He had the confidence to drop him in and come through.

    “I just said to him I think you are on the best horse and the fastest horse so as long as he doesn’t get running with you. He said he will tuck him in somewhere and put him to sleep and he did.

    “It just worked out and he give him a brilliant cool ride. We thought that (it was going to be a true test) as everyone was questioning his stamina.”

    It wasn’t all plain sailing for the clear odds-against favourite on the day, however, as he was out of rhythm in the early stages of the race and he dragged his hind legs through a few fences.

    Legendary jockey AP McCoy described the ride Paul Townend gave the Galopin Des Champs as “brilliant a ride as I have ever seen” on ITV Racing and the winning rider had similar comments to share regarding the difficulty of the race.

    “It was messy for me – I couldn’t get a clean passage early, and he started jumping in the air a little bit, but when I got a bit of room, in fairness to him he came back into a rhythm with me and was very, very brave,” the Irish champion jockey said.

    “I think he got me out of a fair hole, to be honest – I was a lot further back than I wanted to be, but it was just the ride I had to give him.

    “He missed one of the fences coming down the hill, and I thought that was going to put me on the back foot a bit again, but no, straight back on the bridle for me. I don’t think the horse understands how good he is, to be honest.

    “I was happy that when I grabbed hold of him and he picked up for me again, got straight at the last and galloped all the way up the hill and through the line. There’s no doubting his stamina now, anyway.

    “He’s matured, he’s grown up, he’s a bit older, a bit wiser [than last year], and I suppose he surprised me how well he settled the first day [his seasonal debut] at Punchestown, and then going to Leopardstown, I was half-afraid to light him up to see what would happen, but I did away from the stands that day and he came back underneath me after a big jump, so he’s just the full package now.”

    Friday’s success adds to the victories in 2019 and 2020 with Al Boum Photo for the ‘Master of Closutton’ and he feels there could be some more improvement to come from the hugely exciting Galopin Des Champs, as he said: “I think so (on seeing more improvement) as he is only seven and horses do improve until they are eight or nine – I’d like to think there is a little bit of improvement there.”

    As for the second, Bravemansgame, he truly lived up to his name as he was a willing partner in what will be known as a classic duel between two masterful horses.

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    Despite finishing second, trainer Paul Nicholls was extremely pleased with the effort, as he said: “What can you say, I’m just super proud of him and everything went right. He jumped well and he travelled well and I could just see Galopin stalking him a little bit. We wouldn’t do any different.

    “I hate coming second, you know me, but I can’t be anything but proud of the horse. He ran a blinding race and we’ll give it another go next year.

    “We’ll see about Aintree – he had a hard race – and the only places he’ll run are Punchestown and Aintree, but we’ll play it by ear and see how he is. If he didn’t run again this season it wouldn’t be the end of the world, but he’s only run once since Christmas so we could go to Aintree.

    “He’s a young horse, so three or four runs a year is plenty and if we don’t run again we’ll go Charlie Hall, King George and again here next year.”

  • Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Handicaps

    Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Handicaps

    It’s the final day of the greatest show in the world and the Cheltenham Gold Cup takes centre stage in a week that has seen incredible performances, heartfelt stories, and joyous crowd affection.

    And if you still need some help with those pesky handicaps on the final day of the Festival, Ash Symonds of Bestofbets is here to help.

    FRIDAY – County Handicap Hurdle

    The County Hurdle is a race I struggle to work out sometimes – last year I couldn’t see the obvious staring me right in the face and even before that I missed the train Dan Skelton of winners.

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    Skelton has a nice hand with Pembroke this year, certainly a horse that fits the progressive style, and has course form.

    However, I’d be willing to take a different British horse with a similar profile, and that would be GIN COCO at 10/1. This is a horse I have liked since last season having finished second at the Punchestown Festival in April 2022.

    Since then, an easy novice hurdle win in October started his season well, but it’s his Greatwood Hurdle second that really took me back.

    Personally, I didn’t like his trip through the Greatwood – he was a bit too far back, was rushed along (using up plenty of energy) down the Cheltenham hill, and had to come wide around I LIKE TO MOVE IT, a horse who has since won the Kingwell Hurdle and improved 15 pounds, when trying to make his winning run.

    I think when ridden a touch more prominently on the new course, which should suit a tonne better, he could be very dangerous.

    I’ll also give a shout to another British runner in the field and that’s MILKWOOD for Neil Mulholland.

    This is simply because he is handicapped to be very competitive based on his old form.

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    Let me read you off a list: he was third in the 2021 renewal of this race off 140, won the Scottish Champion Hurdle off 142, was second in a Galway Hurdle off 147 to the very good Saldier, and was second in the most recent Welsh Champion Hurdle off 148.

    Following a fairly average run in the Elite Hurdle in November and a decent performance over the wrong trip in February off the back of a 102-day break, the handicapper has given Milkwood a chance off 141 in this year’s County Hurdle, a race that doesn’t look to have a standout performer.

    He is a fiercely good traveler into his races and Mulholland is a brilliant target trainer, so if he continues to run in this rich vein of form, he could be right there at 33/1.

    And to complete the trio of County Hurdle horses, it could be a first Festival success for trainer Richard Spender as at 20/1, WONDERWALL could cause a small upset.

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    His bumper form with Knappers Hill from December 202 reads very well and he was seven seventh in the 2021 Champion Bumper behind Sir Gerhard.

    Fast forward to January 2022 and he beat City Chief while showing plenty of speed at Doncaster and was running a very good race behind Elle Est Belle a month later at Huntington before falling.

    Following a respectable effort behind Sebastopol and Stage Star, the now Turners Novices Chase winner, at Newbury over fences, he returns back to two miles and hurdles off a mark of 134.

    He could be very dangerous if on song at a course he shouldn’t have any issues with.

     

    FRIDAY – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

    The Martin Pipe. The race that caused a mass sing-song before flag fall 12 months ago, and the final piece of the puzzle for Ireland to complete their clean sweep on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival last year.

    The horse who has been at the top of my list for a while is IMAGINE for Gordon Elliott, a trainer who loves to have a winner in this race.

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    The five-year-old Montmartre gelding has been running into nice horses all season: Hunters Yarn and Inothewayurthinkin are the main two. The former is a Supreme hope for Willie Mullins and Imagine actually reversed the form with the latter on his most recent start.

    Coming into this race off a British mark of 139, Elliott highlighted this horse as one of his main handicap fancies of the week at the recent Cheltenham Festival Handicap Weights Lunch, so at 6/1, he has all the capabilities to go close.

    His stable and owner mate FIRM FOOTINGS could be the one overpriced at 20/1 in the field.

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    Having run into Deep Cave and Grangeclare West this season, the British handicapper has left him on a mark of 134 which could be very lenient.

    He won over the wrong distance last time out and a return to 2m4f should suit well with the mustard Shane Fitzgerald on board to do the steering.

  • Back-to-back Champion Chases for Willie Mullins

    Back-to-back Champion Chases for Willie Mullins

    The Willie Mullins show rolled into Cheltenham Racecourse on Wednesday as the Irish champion trainer landed a 7/1 Grade 1 double.

    The best of all came in the feature event of the day as Energumene became the 11th horse to win back-to-back Queen Mother Champion Chases under an ecstatic Paul Townend.

    A bet of £400,000 was placed on the nine-year-old with Star Sports Bookmaker at odds of 7/5, winning the punter £580,000 once the Tony Bloom-owned gelding crossed the winning line.

    Post-race, Mullins shared that he was confident coming into the contest, as he said: “Paul came home from the Clarence House and said they won’t beat us again. The horse’s work and jumping and everything has been brilliant and we were just keeping our fingers crossed for a clear round.

    “I was way more confident coming into this year’s race as we hadn’t got Shishkin to take on and we thought if there was any improvement from the Clarence House that with hopefully with a clear round he would win.”

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    Similar excitement was shared by Townend, who said: “That was easy, to be honest. I got in a lovely rhythm on him, after the first two fences he was taking them on, he was quick at them, and it was simple – it was just a matter of keeping him in a rhythm after that.

    “He allowed me to ride him more forward [than in the Clarence House Chase] because he took on his fences better today. Looser ground probably helped as well and played a factor in it, but he was just more forward. He felt a different horse today.”

    However, Energumene’s success over two miles in the Champion Chase was not the first time the ‘master of Closutton’ had been talking to journalists, as he had been tipping his hat to the fans two hours earlier following Impaire Et Passe’s success in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.

    With a quizzical look on his face, the most-winning Cheltenham Festival trainer in history is already looking towards the future, as he said: “I’m looking at him as a chaser; you have to ask yourself now, do you stay hurdling? What would you do?

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    “The change of pace down to the last and up the hill – wow. I think that was the horse’s fourth run in his life, so there’s a huge improvement there.

    “You have to look at everything, including the Champion Hurdle. Yesterday I was telling Michael Buckley, we’ll have to go shopping again to find one to beat you [Constitution Hill], but maybe we haven’t yet!

    “He’s in the same sort of mold with his speed, jumping and the way he came up the hill, so maybe we have one.”

    Impaire Et Passe went off as the 5/2 second favourite and it looked like it was going to be two from two for the well-backed horses at the start of the day, however, The Real Whacker bravely fended off the challenge of the favourite Gerri Colombe to win the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.

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    It was a fantastic result at the home of jump racing and the crowd loved the game performance, none more so than joint-owner David Mann, who said: “My heart is pounding and my stomach is all over the place. I can’t believe we have had this winner. It is the best day of my life.

    “To come here in November and have a winner was so unreal, to come here New Year’s Day and do it was great. Everybody knows I suppose the king of the crop is the big festival meeting which is today.

    “Sam Twiston-Davies gave him such a great ride and we are so proud of the team, especially Paddy Neville who came over from Ireland two years ago.

    “He is one of my best friends that I grew up with in the same village in Ireland. Paddy has done so much and brought this horse on.”

    Fast forwarding to the final race of the day, it was a tale of two Johns in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper as 18-year-old John Gleeson produced a brilliant ride onboard A Dream To Share for 85-year-old John Kiely.

    Having burst onto the scene at the Dublin Racing Festival following two victories in summer bumpers, the Brucetown Farms Ltd-bred five-year-old powered up the famous Cheltenham hill to please the remaining crowd at Prestbury Park.

    “It’s like a dream and I can’t believe it and even being at the Festival is just unreal,” smiled Gleeson. “It’s very special as we’re a small team at home, but we try our best to get to the next stage and to win.

    “I can’t believe it – I’ve been going to John’s with dad for as long as I can remember really, he’s 10 minutes up the road from us and I ride out this horse every day before going to school. He’s very special.”

  • Festival Focus: Cheltenham Day Two Handicaps

    Festival Focus: Cheltenham Day Two Handicaps

    The second day of the Cheltenham Festival is for the two-mile chasers as the Champion Chase takes centre stage at 15:30.

    Wednesday also sees the Grand Annual immediately follow over the same course and distance, a race that is the second handicap of the day thanks to the ultra-competitive Coral Cup earlier in the card.

    Therefore, BestOfBets has taken a look through both races to try and find a few interesting fancies.

    WEDNESDAY – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 

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    Difficult. Very difficult. 

    The first horse that stands out is BEACON EDGE for Noel Meade in the famous Giggingstown House Stud silks at 12/1 with William Hill. 

    Since his Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase victory nine starts ago, the nine-year-old has had a tough time of things in Graded company having failed to finish in the places in five of his last six starts. 

    However, since returning to hurdles, he ran a great race behind Blazing Khal, the now Stayers’ Hurdle favourite, in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle last time out, and the British handicapper has only brandished him with an extra two pounds for the run.  

    For a horse who was a close third to Honeysuckle in the 2020 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle in November 2020, he can be competitive off a mark of 147 on his first handicap attempt. 

    Of the rest, I am again sticking with the Irish here as both TAX FOR MAX and THE VERY MAN look to be very interesting.

    The former ran a good race behind Gaelic Warrior in the Liffey Handicap Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival but found a few horses too quick for him and this step up to 2m5f should suit very well.  

    As for the latter, he is relatively unexposed at this distance, having finished third to Darver Star, a 149-rated hurdler, in September 2022 when carrying 10 pounds less than the winner. 

    He was slightly disappointing in the Martin Pipe last season, however, he ran a great race in the ‘Up The Yard Challenge Race’ last time out at Punchestown, a race that isn’t in the formbook of this horse on the Racing Post, beating the nifty Scaramanga when giving away six pounds on the flat – Scaramanga is officially rated 147 by the British handicapper, so with The Very Man running off 139, he looks to be well handicapped, especially with seven-pound claimer Conor Smithers booked for the ride.

     

    WEDNESDAY – Grand Annual Handicap Chase 

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    We are three races into the handicap analysis and I am yet to fancy a British horse (apart from the mention of Cloudy Glen in the Ultima).  

    Does this change now?  

    YES! 

    Two horses are on my radar for the Grand Annual, and the first is trained by the very in-form David Pipe team who are running at a 26% strike rate at the time of writing. 

    I’m taking a big swing and hoping he returns back to form, but SIZING POTTSIE is a massive price at 25/1 with William Hill.

    Let’s get the negatives out of the way first: he has been soundly beaten on his last two starts in Graded company in both the Desert Orchid Chase and Clarence House Chase. In his most recent spin, he was held up right at the back alongside Edwardstone, tactics that have rarely seen him win in the past and this was a similar case in the Desert Orchid too. 

    Before that, he bolted up on stable debut in a novice hurdle at Ayr when well-fancied and he was only beaten by five lengths in the Listed Newton Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock in November – the winner of that race was Tahmuras, a Grade 1 winner in the Tolworth Hurdle and a general 10/1 shot for the Supreme.

    Harking back to his days with Jessica Harrington in Ireland, he was rated 155 at his peak when beating the likes of Master McShee, Entoucas (second in the 2021 Grand Annual), and Cut The Mustard, as well as holding solid form behind Melon, Energumene, and Captain Guinness (in a maiden hurdle). 

    The handicapper has given him a right chance off 140 having dropped him 15lbs from just three chase races. He may not be at his best anymore, but for this nine-year-old, I’m happy to take the chance off this rating.

    It wouldn’t be a handicap chase at Cheltenham without mentioning a Gordon Elliott runner and I think he could have a nice one in CALL ME LYREEN at 20/1 with William Hill.

    There was talk that this seven-year-old could have been heading to the Plate Handicap Chase instead, but it seems like connections have decided to come here.

    His form behind Visionarian from July has worked out very well and he was running two very good races behind much higher-rated horses in Kilarney and Listowel earlier this season before a terrible mistake hualted his progress.

    Off a workable 145 rating, he could be a potential Graded horse in a handicap if his race behind Kemboy and Easy Game, a contest he fell in when travelling ver well, is anything to go by.

  • Cheltenham Festival: Champion Hurdle Day handicap preview

    Cheltenham Festival: Champion Hurdle Day handicap preview

    The Cheltenham Festival. A place where dreams are made of and hopes are shattered on the floor. Seven races per day, four times over, all around the hallowed turf of Prestbury Park.

    Plenty of time is spent trying to work out the Championship races on each day, but throughout all the cards, the handicaps offer a brilliant stage for betting angles and each-way edges.

    To try and help guide you through each day of the Cheltenham Festival, Best Of Bets lists some of the key players in the handicaps on day one of horse racing’s Olympics.

    TUESDAY – Ultima Handicap Chase

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    Starting with the opening handicap race of the week, the Ultima, there are a few on my shortlist for the 3m1f contest.

    Firstly, I thought CLOUDY GLEN for Venetia Williams could outrun his odds at 20/1 with William Hill. This 10-year-old was second in the 2021 Kim Muir off a mark of 140, only five pounds below his current rating, in a race won by the very impressive Mount Ida. Two starts after that, he won the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (old Hennessy) off the same mark in a tight finish with Fiddlerontheroof with the pair pulling 28 lengths clear of Brahma Bull in third.

    After that, he was disappointing in his next two starts before having a year-long lay-off and then he ran a great race to finish in the places at Haydock in the Grand National Trial last month. I think he can run a massive race off 145.

    However, the horse I’ll be hanging my hat on is THE GOFFER at 12/1 with William Hill for the Gordon Elliott stable.

    He’s only a six-year-old and has plenty of improvement about him. What’s interesting about him is that he won at the Dublin Racing Festival off a mark of 138 in early February, a rating that could have got him into the Kim Muir with a cracking chance even with the Irish tax applied to him by the British handicapper.

    However, connections decided to send him to the race on the last day, a contest he won, and now he’s rated 11lbs higher off a mark of 149. Now, that may be steep, but he collected victory over potentially the wrong trip and he was very good throughout. I think he is the classy horse of the race and potentially the one to beat.

    TUESDAY – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

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    Sticking with the Irish, I am chancing Charles’ Byrnes’ BYKER in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

    Coming into Sunday, I was all over Common Practice for Joseph O’Brien, however, he was the only horse not to be declared for the race, so I’ve had to switch it up a bit.

    Up four pounds from his official Irish mark, the four-year-old Le Havre gelding ran a great race to finish third on his last start behind Sir Allen at Naas in Febuary when giving away seven pounds.

    Now in handicap company, he is rated three pounds below the formerly mentioned Andrew Slattery-trained runner for just a two length defeat.

    He looks to move through his races very well and at 7/1 with William Hill, he looks like the most likely winner in my eyes.

  • Cheltenham 2023: The Cheltenham 5: Shishkin

    Cheltenham 2023: The Cheltenham 5: Shishkin

    As the days tick down of the final week before Cheltenham, we continue our festival feature with this year’s Cheltenham quintet.

    Picture the scene: Ascot 2022. After winning in the Clarence House over Energumene, all was well with Shishkin.

    Installed as 5/6f for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and seeking an 11th-straight victory, nothing could stop Nico De Boinville and the Irish gelding.

    However, Cheltenham 2022 saw it all fall flat after being pulled up when failing to make the trip.

    But now having roared back with an emphatic win a Ascot last month, is Shishkin primed for glorious redemption in the Ryanair Chase?

    Shishkin odyssey

    At the end of March, Shishkin will have been a thoroughbred racing horse for five years.

    In that time, Nicky Henderson has ran out his gelding a total of 17 times.

    During that period, just twice has the horse failed to finish a race and in only two further races has victory not been achieved.

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    It was in January 2020, where the tale of greatness began.

    Winning the British Racing Novices’ Hurdle, the then 6yo romped to an 11-length victory.

    The Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham soon followed and after stringing three more wins together, Shishkin returned to Gloucestershire in 2021.

    A hot favourite for the Arkle, his winning margin over Eldorado Allen was a length further than the year before. Shishkin was the real deal. Victory on Grand National weekend then capped a stunning season.

    Champion Hurdle woe; surgery

    Then, inexplicably, the story began to unravel.

    Unbeaten since a Newbury fall at the end of 2019, Shishkin laboured on softer turf in last year’s Champion Chase.  For want of a better phrase, everything was ‘off’.

    Struggling with the jumps and keeping pace, Shishkin was pulled up after the eighth flight.

    Somewhat sore from his no-show, trainer Nicky Henderson held back for his return until December only for his 9yo to sustain an injury.

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    Taking a kick in the preamble before the Tingle Creek at Sandown, Shishkin came third behind both Edwardstone and Greanateen.

    Adding salt to the wounds, it was then determined wind surgery would be required.

    After such certainty, suddenly everything was in up in the air. Going under the knife on January 5 however, Shishkin was raring to go.

    Which is why at Ascot only a few weeks ago it was joyous to see the returning conqueror slay the field.

    Coasting to a 16-length win over Pic D’Orhy, Shishkin was back.

    Unfinished business

    Which brings us full circle. The Shishkin camp are keen to erase last year’s woes.

    With the Ryanair now in the crosshairs, Blue Lord and the improving Allaho are set to be the main rivals.

    Expected to go off once again a well-backed favourite, it won’t escape punters, pundits and indeed his trainer and owners alike though, that the pressure is back on.

    His backers might be anxiously glancing at the current forecast and drop in temperatures but it does feel like Shishkin has unfinished business to resolve.

    Victory on the Thursday of Cheltenham week this year would be oh so sweet for a horse on a mission.

  • Cheltenham 2023: The Cheltenham 5: Constitution Hill

    Cheltenham 2023: The Cheltenham 5: Constitution Hill

    Of every horse paraded around Cheltenham at this year’s festival there can surely be no bigger certainty. At least, on paper.

    Constitution Hill doesn’t just do wins; they come with elan, grace, elegance and above all sheer thunder.

    Having romped to the Supreme Novices’ crown last year on his Cheltenham bow, Nico De Boinville has since not seen his mount win by less than 12 lengths.

    Even those two occasions saw veritable canters to victory at Sandown last January and also at Newcastle at the start of the calendar year.

    Looking to seal the Champion Hurdle this year, can anyone touch Constitution Hill at Cheltenham?

    A sporting Constitution

    When we talk about Constitution Hill, this horse lives up to his name.

    But such the meteoric rise to stardom, his career has not yet reached its two-year anniversary.

    Nevertheless, trainer Nicky Henderson has groomed one of the finest thoroughbreds around, even if a maiden outing saw his only career defeat to date.

    Pipped by a head to Anyharminasking at Tipperary in April 2021, this rest as they say is history.

    Almost to underline the scorn of losing his first race, the distance this British gelding has won by from that point has been startling.

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    Preparing for Cheltenham with successive destructive takedowns of last year’s runner-up Epatante, Constitution had marked territory for this very week in March.

    Yet, it was the size of winning margin 12 months ago that still stands as the most staggering of performances.

    A year on from that 22-length blitz of Jonbon, can any horse even hope to hold a candle when faced with the might of Constitution Hill and the Cheltenham roar?

    State Man lurks

    The one figure who threatens to play spoiler is State Man.

    Simply put, there is no true way to compare just how Willie Mullins’ 6yo could match up to the might of his foe.

    However, after taking down Honeysuckle and Vauban this term, the pedigree is there, not to mention State Man being a Cheltenham winner last year in the County Hurdle.

    Then, there is also the small matter of a six-win streak coming into this contest.

    The general consensus is, if State Man can remain with Constitution Hill turning for home and heading up the hill, Paul Townend will fancy his chances of going nose to nose with Nico.

    But getting to that point is going to be a tough task. 1/4 odds say as much.

    If stable reports are to be believed, Constitution Hill is coming into the best form of the season just in time for Cheltenham week.

    For all that stand before him, that is a fearsome thought.