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Tag: BetfredDerby

  • Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    The endless weeks of build-up have drawn to a close as it is the week of the Epsom Derby.

    The two-day event around the undulations of the Surrey-based track is just a few days away and we at Bestofbets.com can’t wait.

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    For me, the last few weeks of the Ante-post Analysis series have seen some good success; THE FOXES winning the Dante and CAIRO placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas are the main highlights.

    And as for last week’s The Top Three column, well, we will be discussing that on Friday.

    I won’t get too ahead of myself as you have to take the peaks and troughs with a good degree of level-headedness in this game, so I’m sure I’ll come crashing back down to Earth sooner than I would like.

    Hopefully, it is not this week as I have a few early fancies for the Epsom Derby weekend.

     

    Keen on the Queen

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    The Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday looks to be a cracking contest at the time of writing with 10 entered for the £100,000 race.

    Although another one of my cliff horses, Prosperous Voyage, is at the head of the market, my head has been turned by a different four-year-old filly.

    QUEEN AMINATU shaped like a filly going placed last time out on the all-weather as she stayed on behind an on-song Sacred over seven furlongs at Lingfield.

    That form, in my eyes, is worth a good deal in a race like this as she was three-wide around the bend having finished third to Sandrine, a Group 2 winner, and Sacred, a horse who has all the attributes of a Group 1 filly when she is 100%.

    Furthermore, on her only start at a mile, she blitzed her competition at Lingfield, a race that included Oscula, a three-time Group 3 winner.

    Although most of her form is on the all-weather, her second on good ground over a mile at Haydock last season gives me hope that she will handle conditions on Saturday.

    If she can continue her progression, it will take a good one to beat her and the 8/1 available with BetVictor is a good price.

     

    One better than Silver

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    It’s almost like I’m living in a world of deja-vu as my next fancy was put up here two weeks ago before being declared a non-runner.

    Alas, having heard that this has always been the target, I’m willing to go back in on SILVER SWORD at 12/1.

    His case is obvious on one piece of form alone as his fifth to Military Order three starts ago reads extremely well, something that could see another boost if Godolphin’s Derby hope obliges earlier on the card.

    Following that run, a good second to Empress Wu and a facile victory at Southwell has only bolstered his claims.

    Now returning to 1m2f, something that should suit on pedigree as his dam (Aurora Grey) won three times over two miles, he could make light work of his official rating of 82.

    It is a competitive field and he does need one horse to come out to run, but hopefully that occurs and he can light up the Downs.

     

    Bring down the House

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    And finally, in a showering of repetition, my final ante-post play of Derby Weekend is a horse whom I put up at York two weeks ago.

    He finished fifth on seasonal reappearance at the Dante meeting, something I hope puts him spot on for the Dash on Saturday.

    That’s right, I’m sticking with CLARENDON HOUSE at 7/1 with William Hill.

    Despite running a career-best according to RPRs, the five-year-old was dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his last run.

    For a horse who travelled like the winner for three furlongs, received three reminders from Daniel Muscutt, and just emptied on his first start for 240 days, the run at York was very pleasing.

    On pure numbers, his second at Beverley two starts ago when eight pounds wrong at the weights with Acklam Express (3rd) was great and the second to Raasel last season, a horse who would go on to improve 15 pounds, when giving five pounds away shines brightly.

    Now rated 100, just one pound higher than his last winning mark, the test of Epsom should suit, and he is my fancy for the Dash on Epsom Derby weekend.

  • 16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    Well, last week’s ante-post analysis turned out to be a profitable one, something that is always brilliant.

    THE FOXES delivered in the Dante Stakes at 13/2 to put readers in clover with CLARENDON HOUSE just missing out of the places and SILVER SWORD a late non-runner from the London Gold Cup.

    And despite a frustrating week for The Top Three article (more on that this Friday), we are heading full steam ahead into a regular week of good racing on the weekend with the Irish Guineas meeting at the Curragh taking centre stage.

    So, let’s dive into my early ante-post interests.

    O’Brien masterclass… again? 

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    It’s been six years since Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish 2000 Guineas, a stat that comes as a surprise considering the firepower the master of Ballydoyle usually has at his disposal.

    And it’s not like it has been through a lack of trying as the master trainer has sent 18 horses to the one-mile Curragh contest since Churchill’s win in 2017, with the most (6) coming in 2020 and the least (1) occurring last season.

    That stat does make you wonder why O’Brien is sending fewer horses to the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. It could be a change of tactics employed by Ballydoyle to only send ones with winning chances and the drop in regularity of pacemakers in these Group 1 contests over the last few seasons, or the effects of Galileo’s progeny production winding down before he passed away in 2021 could be accountable for this.

    However, it seems like we could see a couple more runners for O’Brien in this year’s renewal with Paddington, Age Of Kings, and Cairo all still in the race at the time of writing (Wednesday), but it is the latter who has caught my eye.

    By Quality Road, a four-time Grade 1 winner in the US at one-mile plus, out of a Galileo mare called Cuff, who won a Listed contest at six furlongs and is a full sister to Mars, Gustav Klimt, and Friendly, Cairo looks to have a pedigree that is promising and should suit the one-mile test well having already won at that trip twice.

    If you can forgive the three-year-old’s last run in the UAE Derby over nine-and-a-half furlongs, his two-length win at Dundalk was one with plenty of promise to build on his impressive victory at the end of last season in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes.

    The interesting thing about his Dundalk win is that Ryan Moore came over for the ride in early March and has only ever ridden at the track 16 times, winning on 10 of those occasions, so that would potentially suggest that he comes over for the useful horses.

    With all of this brought together, the 12/1 with William Hill is one that looks like a good price to me and I will be backing CAIRO for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    Able to Silence favourite backers 

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    Although the 2000 Guineas is a tough problem to work out, the Fillies’ equivalent could be cut and dry.

    Tahiyra was second in the Newmarket Guineas to a very good Mawj, pulled a long way clear of the rest, and could theoretically come on for the run.

    So this is simple, right? Well, there could be a bit more under the surface to discover.

    Firstly, she won’t be getting her soft ground conditions that she has received on her last two starts. This isn’t too much of a worry because she won on good to yielding on debut and her pedigree would say that good ground should be fine.

    Secondly, I have a small concern about why she didn’t pass Mawj last time out. She looked for all the world like she would glide by without any hindrance, however, she slightly hung her head into the winner and looked a small bit reluctant to move past.

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    And thirdly, that Guineas was run in attritional conditions and would have been a very, very hard race for a horse who was making their first start for eight months. Having received just a 21-day break, the bounce factor is a possibility.

    Can I see Tahiyra winning? Absolutely. Will I be backing her at 4/7? No, and I have an angle to take her on with.

    I’m going with a similar form line to the odds-on favourite as the ETERNAL SILENCE, third in the Moyglare Stakes behind Dermot Weld’s filly, is an exciting bet at 16/1 with William Hill.

    If you analyse her last run at the Curragh, Shane Foley was keen to drop her to the rear of the pack to try and settle this daughter of War Front into the race.

    That does occur and when she gets a clear route to the finish, Foley kicks for home and finishes best of the rest behind Tahiyra and Meditate, staying on over the seven-furlong trip.

    The step back up to a mile for the Irish 1000 Guineas, a distance she was third over two starts ago, should suit and on pedigree, she should be a better three-year-old as her dam, Princess Highway, won the 2012 Ribblesdale as a three-year-old.

    I’m hoping to see some improvement, which is required, but she looks to have the scope to do so.

    As mentioned on the recent Only Fools Love Horses video, her at 16/1 and Meditate at 7/1 will be the two plays for me, with the case for the latter being a return to front-running tactics and better ground could see her reverse the Newmarket and Curragh form with Tahiyra.

    So, the 4/7 favourite is one I am taking on. Am I making a rod for my own back? Most probably. Do I have an issue with that? No, who doesn’t love taking a bit of an exciting risk?

  • Four To Follow Derby Trials & Victoria Cup

    Four To Follow Derby Trials & Victoria Cup

    Four To Follow takes us all around the country this week, as we get more Derby and Oaks trials from Lingfield. Big field handicap action comes from Ascot, and a trip up North for a Premier Handicap Hurdle. Here are my four selections for Saturday’s racing.

    ASCOT – 2:40, Victoria Cup (Premier Handicap) – Safe Voyage @ 14/1 (William Hill)

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    The Victoria Cup is one of many seven-furlong handicaps throughout the season, and somehow always favours those drawn high. Safe Voyage is one of those, and despite being a 10-year-old he seems to be running alright. He ran in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last week and came a respectable third. It shows he hasn’t lost any pace and can mix in with the best. The ground is soft after torrential rain, and should remain that way through Saturday, so ground isn’t a problem. He checks all the boxes, despite being an old boy.

    Spycatcher is another I quite like. Like Safe Voyage he ran last week at Thirsk, and ran to form. He stays at the same mark, with the same jockey on board and fits the profile of many of the previous winners of the race. He has had one run at Ascot, but was way above his level in Group Three company. This is more to his level and can overcome a low draw to be in the mix at the finish line. A decent each-way pick at 16/1 (Boylesports)

    One at a price I really like is Darkness for David O’Meara. Never count out O’Meara in any Ascot handicap, particularly later on in the season. He’s never managed to win this race, but Darkness is one who looks like he needs the soft ground. Given that he’s fully into his season, there isn’t a question about fitness, and his last run at Newmarket wasn’t bad at all, losing by two lengths into fourth. I’ll have a small wager at 33/1 (BetVictor)

    LINGFIELD – 3:00, Lingfield Oaks Trial – Eternal Hope @ 7/2 (William Hill)

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    Lingfield’s card on Saturday is now switched to the all-weather, which means it’s a little more of a level playing field. One who could benefit is the Godolphin runner Eternal Hope. She’s by Teofilo, who hasn’t yet sired an Oaks or Derby winner, but has sired many Group One winners. The damsire for this horse is Dubawi, so there is some staying form in the bloodline. She’s had two runs on the all-weather, and the form from her last run at Chelmsford was backed up by the second. However, on paper, this doesn’t look the strongest Oaks trial we’ve had.

    HAYDOCK – 3:15, Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Onemorefortheroad @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

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    Onemorefortheroad is finally below a mark of 130. What’s more, he’s at a winning mark of 127. And, despite a deluge of rain at Chester, the rain hasn’t hit Haydock and is set to go off good to soft which means that he’s got his ground. He’s had a slight layoff, and this race feels like it’s been targeted by Neil King. Jack Quinlan is back on board, and should deliver for the lightly raced Onemorefortheroad.

    Hurricane Ali takes the eye further down the market. He hasn’t been seen since November 2022, and reappears fresh and with plenty of form to perform on. He finished behind Filey Bay, who franked the form, as did El Borracho on the flat at Thirsk. Hurricane Ali is at the start of his season and isn’t too bad at this time of the year either. He’s on a good mark with 5lbs been taken off by Alan Doyle. Watch out for him at 25/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    LINGFIELD – 3:35, Lingfield Derby Trial – Military Order @ 11/10 (General)

    Once again, it doesn’t look the strongest trial on paper. But, Military Order is a deserved favourite after winning brilliantly on reappearance at Newbury. The breeding is unquestionable, by Frankel and a brother to Derby winner Adayar. There doesn’t look to be any challenge, and the real test for Military Order will be on the Downs in June.

    The very best of luck!

  • 33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    Welcome to a new weekly column of mine where I talk about my three best bets for the weekend’s action.

    Alongside my ante-post analysis piece that is released on Wednesdays looking at any potential early angles into marquee races, this regular content will be released on Fridays with all the confirmed weather and declarations information available to me to make my final judgments.

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    I’ve given myself a ‘points’ staking plan to keep track of how I have done and how confident each play will be, all of which will be recorded and put at the bottom of every article. No pressure then!

    So with the admin out of the way, let’s get into the action.

     

    ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 12/1 – 3:15 Haydock – 0.5pt EW

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    It may be the Flat season right now, but the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock has taken a small amount of my interest as I will be having a 0.5pt EW play on ONEMOREFORTHEROAD for Neil King and Jack Quinlan.

    Although his last win came in December 2021 in the Intermediate Hurdle, the eight-year-old has only raced seven times since and his third to Anna Bunina in the 2022 Scottish Champion Hurdle reads well considering John McConnell’s mare has improved 16lbs since.

    Although his last two efforts on Good ground have been poor, he has been dropped six pounds for them and he did most of his winning on Good ground in the early parts of his career.

    With a rating of 127, which is nine pounds below that third at Ayr in 2022 and his last winning mark, King’s charge in the highlight handicap hurdle is my main fancy in the contest.

     

    TOIMY SON 33/1 – 2:40 Ascot – 1pt EW

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    My second biggest play of the weekend comes in the ever-tricky Victoria Cup and I’m giving the rank-outsider of the field, TOIMY SON, a chance at 33/1 with William Hill.

    I backed this four-year-old Twilight Son colt last time out in the Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile and he looked to be too keen which ultimately downplayed his chances of winning the race.

    I was quite confident of a big run last month, unfortunately, the market was not in agreement with me as he drifted out on the exchanges and was sent off at an SP of 40/1.

    So, why am I giving him a chance this week in the Victoria Cup?

    Firstly, there is only a small window of opportunity to run this horse as he needs soft ground, something he will get at Ascot this week, but as the summer rolls into full view, that chance of rain and slower conditions will diminish.

    Secondly, he is back down in trip to seven furlongs, the distance he was last seen winning at in Longchamp last May and hopefully, he won’t be so keen over a shorter trip.

    And finally, French jockey Cristian Demuro is jocked up on the bay for his only ride of the day which is a big jockey booking from David Menusier as he was the pilot that guided Toimy Son to success in that Longchamp race last year, a race where he beat Txope who went on to win the German 1000 Guineas on her next start.

    Taking this all in and harking back to his runners-up effort behind Mangoustine, a future French 1000 Guineas winner, as a two-year-old, I think he can run a big race off a workable mark of 102 in the Victoria Cup.

     

    ANGEL BLEU 15/8 – 3:50 Haydock – 3pt Win

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    This position was taken by Sea Of Roses for the Lingfield Oaks Trial but the switch to all-weather has meant she was not declared, however, ANGEL BLEU is a more than worthy substitute.

    If you can ignore his last run in France, I think he should be odds-on and not just a shade below 2/1.

    Firstly, the ground at Haydock is set to be the best in the country as the official going description is Good to Soft with no rain in sight.

    Despite his win at Saint-Cloud in October 2021 on Very Soft ground, I think his best form comes on better surfaces as his four-length fifth to Baaeed in last year’s Sussex Stakes and third to Perfect Power in last year’s Greenham Stakes would suggest.

    His pedigree would back this statement up being by Dark Angel (the 2007 Middle Park winner on Good ground) out of a Galileo mare.

    Now a four-year-old and still at somewhere near his best as shown by his unlucky runners-up effort to Berkshire Shadow at Wolverhampton two starts ago, Ralph Beckett’s contender is best at the weight by six pounds to his nearest market rival, Al Mubhir, and with a sounder surface under his feet than his run last time out, I think he will be tough to beat at 15/8.