Lack of Goals
England face Finland on Sunday in the UEFA Nations League, looking to bounce back after their surprise home defeat to Greece on Thursday evening.
In Group B2 there have been a been a lack of goals across all games so I’m tipping England to win and under 4.5 goals in the match at 1.62.
All the matches that England and Finland have been involved in have ended with less than 4.5 goals so with the likelihood of the visitors winning against a Finland side with a lot less quality. the odds are definitely worth betting on.
In the last 10 games the Three Lions have featured in, there have been an average 2.1 goals in the match. The last time there were more than 4.5 goals in the game was in a 7-0 win against North Macedonia in June 2023. Similarly, Finland also hasn’t been involved in a game which has ended with more than 4.5 goals in the last four games, this last happened in a 4-2 defeat to Portugal.
Back to Winning Ways for England?
Despite England’s defeat to Greece, they’re still 4th in the FIFA world rankings behind Argentina, France and Spain. Finland currently sit in 64th place. On paper, England should win. The Three Lions are a team who tend to grind out wins whilst under pressure from the media, evidently from their journey to the Euros Final following their lacklustre group displays ending with one win. They then of course, went on to beat Slovakia, Switzerland and the Netherlands before losing to Spain in the Final.
Nations League Form
England still sit in a good position in Group B2. Lee Carsley’s men are also three points ahead of Republic of Ireland, who next play Greece. Finland are rock bottom with zero points after three games, having scored one goal and conceding seven. The two teams faced each other back on Matchday 2 – where this tip would have come home – in a 2-0 win for England via a Harry Kane double.
Finland haven’t won in their last five games. Their last win came in a 2-1 friendly win over Estonia at home. They narrowly lost Ireland on Thursday night after a late Robbie Brady winner. This weakens their chances of staying in League B.
Under-fire Carsley has already ruled out Harry Kane’s involvement in Helsinki, after missing the defeat to the Greeks. Additionally, Bukayo Saka was taken off due to an injury at Wembley, making it unlikely that he will be included in the squad. Despite this, surely England don’t suffer more embarrassment and can gain three points.
