Best Of Bets

Tag: Tahiyra

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Another week, another Group One. This time it’s the Sun Chariot Stakes over on the Rowley Mile, whilst the two-year-olds are in action in the Tattersalls October Sales Race. There’s also the Two-Year-Old Trophy up North at Redcar, and the handicap action comes from Ascot with the Challenge Cup. It’s those races we focus on for this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Newmarket

    Running in the dark

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    2:05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes – Midnite Runner @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    An interesting fact about this fairly new sales race is the Northern trainers have a good record in the race. David Barron, Julie Camacho and Les Eyre have all won this race in the past nine renewals. And it’s another Northern trainer that looks to have some potential to cause an upset to the odds-on favourite. Despite racing green in the early stages, Midnite Runner rallied well in the final quarter mile to win my one-and-a-half lengths. The form hasn’t been thoroughly tested, so Michael Dods looks to have a horse with potential here.

    Further down the market, Drama makes some appeal for James Ferguson and Saffie Osborne. He didn’t perform in the Somerville Auction Stakes on the July course, but you could excuse that to firm ground. His only win came on similar ground, in a novice stakes at Windsor. With Saffie continuing her great form for the season, Drama may be one to consider at 16/1 (Betfred)

    Another for the shortlist is Lieutenant Rascal. Bred by U S Navy Flag, he is the speedy type. But on evidence on his last two runs, he would like the slight step up in trip to six furlongs. He’s had a busy season, even finishing towards the rear in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. His last two performances are the evidence to go on, and can end a barren run for trainer George Scott. 22/1 (Betfred).

     

    On the quiet

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    3:15 – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group One) – Meditate @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    People have been easy to dismiss this horse. She’s always fallen to her superior rival Tahiyra and underperformed in the Prix Jean Prat. But, with no Tahyira and what looks like a weakish Group One on paper, she can certainly hit the frame. In recent renewals, the favourite has been overturned and that makes me prefer Meditate over Inspiral.

     

    Ascot

    Sweet and Smoky

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    3:35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Hickory @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Hickory comes into this in good form. A consistent performer over seven furlongs, he started to enter the conversation with two placed efforts over C&D. Trainer James Fanshawe has aimed him for this handicap, and got in on the bottom weight, which is a big bonus. He wasn’t too far behind Baradar, who reopposes him here, and neither Quinault last time out, who also features. The ground will be to his liking, and is drawn to the far side, which can help him.

    Three-year-olds start to come alive at this time in the season and a youngster who has a chance is Glenfinnian. He’s won over C&D in a classified stakes race and didn’t perform on the ground last time out. He comes in on a nice low weight, and a handy stand-side draw. Andrew Balding has tasted success recently over C&D with Alsakib, and has another live chance here at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Redcar

    Action stations

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    2:45 – William Hill Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) – Action Point @ 17/2 (General)

    Dragon Leader is the overwhelming favourite. And whilst favourites do have a good record, he can be opposed. And Action Point looks to be that rival. He drops in Grade from a French Group Three to a Listed contest, which was the last class of race he won at. The ground will be perfect for him, as he ran creditably on similar ground at Chantilly last time out, but far too firm at York. This should be an interesting race, as Dragon Leader won’t have the ground to his usual rattling preference.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    As we approach the end of the season (and the start of the jumps!), the stars are all reappearing for one final hurrah! First up is Irish Champions weekend, and we head to Leopardstown for a tasty looking Irish Champion Stakes. There’s also the small matter of the Sprint Cup at Haydock as well. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Long Time, No Tah-see

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    2:45 – Coolmore ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (Group One) – Tahiyra @ Evs (General)

    Tahiyra is an undoubtable talent, but she’s only ran three times this season. Which makes her return to the track all the more tantalising. However, the Matron Stakes has the habit to throw up some real surprises. No favourite has won since Legatissimo in 2015, and has been the only favourite to win in the last 10 years. But Tahiyra is clear on ratings, versatile on ground with a slight bias to firmness, and has every right to be favourite, even after a period off the track.

    To follow her in, Just Beautiful looked as though she could become a talking horse when winning the Lanwades Stud Stakes all the way back in May. But she’s been off the track for some time, and is making a crucial step up to Group One level. Her previous form says she’ll get the ground, and has a couple of decent formlines. Interesting at 9/1 (William Hill)

     

    Not Just The Boys

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    3:20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 11/2 (General)

    This looks, on paper, one of the races of the season. Two three-year-olds who have captured the racing world, plus plenty of Group One experience in the mix as well. But it’s Nashwa I’m drawn to after her performance in the International Stakes. Many people disregarded her, but she finished in between, arguably, the two best horses in the race. She was Only beaten by a length that day, and comes to Leopardstown with conditions on her side, plus John Gosden’s record in the race in recent years puts her in the frame and make the race her own.

    Spare a thought for Luxembourg who seems to be totally disregarded, despite having a good career, three Group One’s including the race last year. He wasn’t up to standard, but you could argue he drops to a preferred trip here. And just because Ryan Moore is on the other horse, doesn’t necessarily means he’s on the right one. Each-way claims at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Too E-Aasy

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    4:30 – Paddy Power Stakes (Group Three) – Al Aasy @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    It beggars belief how Al Aasy is second favourite. His performances, whilst at Listed level, have been eye-catching and he steps up in trip for the first time since his reappearance in the Fred Archer. But he has narrowly been denied at the top level, and it’s that previous Group One experience that may just put him over the line against Adelaide River, who hasn’t won this season, or since his debut. Whilst Adelaide River has disappointed, Al Aasy has made smooth progress and can follow up here at Leopardstown.

     

    Haydock

    Slam Dunk Finish

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    3:35 – Sprint Cup (Group One) – Shaquille @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Shaquille has very much picked up the gauntlet as the top sprinter of the season. From one Northern horse (Highfield Princess) to another, Shaquille has impressed with the turn of foot unlike any other sprinter at the top level. He may dwell at the start, but his jet engine propels him to the front to pick of those who are no match for him. And on paper, it looks another open and shut case.

    Or does it? Sacred was incredibly unlucky at Royal Ascot when denied by 80/1 shot Khaadem, and has been out for revenge since. Whilst previous form suggests his best distance is over seven, on quicker ground it’s much better over six. It was evident when disappointing in the City of York Stakes last time out, and the quick turnaround plus drop in trip may give him a chance to spoil Shaq’s shindig. Next best in the field at 17/2 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day Two

     

    A disappointing Day One for Four To Follow, but we aim to make it up in the next two days, as TWO Group Ones’ rattle towards us. Here are my tips for Day Two at the July Festival.

     

    Newmarket

    Seen It, Did It

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    13:50 – bet365 Heritage Handicap – Seendid @ 15/2 (BetVictor, 10Bet)

    William Haggas and Tom Marquand are having a, somewhat, quiet season. But I feel they’ve laid this horse out perfectly for its big test. Seendid is by Dubawi and is out of a middle-distance mare, so has plenty of stamina. He also has crucial course and distance experience, after breaking his maiden on the July course at the back-end of June. He made all that day, but given that there are a few more horses to contest with, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marquand drops him in behind the leader and lead the rest home in the straight. He’s good value too at the top of the market.

    And don’t knock off Knockbrex for Charlie Johnston. His father Mark has an incredible record in the race, winning the race four times on the spin between 2013and 2016. He then won it in 2020 with Zabeel Champion. I’m sure Charlie will have heeded some advice from his father, and Knockbrex will not be without hope. Winning from the front can be done on the July course, ask Seendid. If he learns to settle, he’ll be a good each-way shout, especially with some past form behind Royal Ascot winner Gregory, at 10/1 (General)

     

    Dream of a Win

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    15:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Live Your Dream @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Live Your Dream has almost been a revelation since returning to the track. Placed twice, including a second at the Royal meeting, you feel he’ll be too much class for the field in this race. On pure ratings, he’s the only horse rated at 104 which is top weight. But class horses can defy the top weight, and he has been improving all the time. Today should be his day to shine.

    One at a better price is Ravens Ark. He’s a quite a consistent stayer, with two seconds to his name already this season. He seems to be versatile on all grounds, and a mark of 81 is only a pound higher than his previous winning one. It’s a bit of a disappointing ‘heritage handicap’, but Ravens Ark represents some value at 11/1 (General)

     

    Remarkable July

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    15:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Remarquee @ 4/1 (General)

    I’ve always viewed this race as a bit of a faux pas Group One. It hasn’t been won by the greats in recent times, and I can’t imagine we’ll see a great come out of this race either. But Remarquee does stand out to me. She was only a length behind Tahiyra at Ascot, which is a big result considering how the race panned out. She gets a nine pound allowance, which will be massively beneficial to her. Via Sistina is a good horse, but the ground will come into question. And it’ll be interesting to see Nashwa stepping down in trip for her reappearance, and I think the Gosdens will be looking to the Nassau, and this is just a prep race. That makes Remarquee the stand out for me.

     

    York

    Swinging In Summer

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    15:40 – Summer Stakes (Group Three) – Swingalong @ 15/8 (General)

    Swingalong is back at the scene of her last win, in the Lowther. York over six furlongs was a great match for Swingalong, and Karl Burke will know that. She is a high-class filly, and could easily turn into a top rated sprinter, given she also finished third in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot. And with 14 winners so far in July for Burke, this race could not come at a better time for an in-form stable. I’m surprised she’s odds against, frankly.

    The very best of luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Day Four was an up and down day at Royal Ascot. Tahiyra, tipped up by me three times, won in a messy race. And King of Steel proved his run in the Derby wasn’t a fluke. Today is the final day of what has been an incredible meeting, let’s finish on a high. Here are my Day Five picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ROYAL REPEAT

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    NAP: Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Rohaan always seems to come alive at the Royal meeting. Two Wokingham’s, two wins. But now he’s too high for the handicap, but those two were just as good as Group One performances, and shouldn’t’ have trouble here. People may say that he is punching above his weight with the likes of the Aussie Artorius, and the Hong Kong raider Wellington, but I think he holds his own, especially when he’s at Ascot. His record is 4 wins out of six at the Berkshire track, and he finished fourth in a Group One last year. And, dare I say, the draw might suit him.

    Watch out for Kinross, who had a stellar season last year with many trips over the seven furlongs. He dropped back to six in the Champions Sprint Stakes here and wowed with an eye-catching performance. He’s been overtaken in the market by the two international raiders, and Highfield Princess, but he shouldn’t be discounted, particularly now with Frankie on form. Fourth-best in the market at 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill).

    PYLE IN TOP GEAR

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    E/W BET: Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – Pyledriver @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    I can’t accept that Pyledriver is at that price, at course he loves, on ground he loves. He hasn’t been seen since winning the King George last year due to injuries and various setbacks, but William Muir and Chris Grassick love this horse, and won’t have run him unless he was 100% fit. He’s has lost to Hukum before, but he bounced back in the King George last year. He has some sketchy form when coming back of a break, but recently he’s been winning, and there’s no reason to say he can’t here.

    HAGGAS IN THE HANDICAP

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    Handicap Best: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Khanjar @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

    Looking at the pace map, it’s all over the shop, so draw may not matter. There is some pace coming out of stalls 25-28, and Khanjar can lock on to it from 24. Haggas has only sent out three runners, and ended up with a winner in Desert Hero. And the combination of Haggas, Crowley and Shadwell in a handicap should strike fear into their rivals. Plus his form makes for good reading; ran a good race at Hamilton (stiff track) and finished a length behind the winner. The cheek-pieces are on to sharpen him up, which is always a good sign. Plus a bit of C&D can’t go amiss.

    Looking further down the market First Folio for James Ferguson makes appeal at 25/1 (General). He has won a heritage handicap, the Macmillan Sprint at York in 2021 and finished sixth in last year’s Wokingham. He’s been given the same handicap rating as he did, but Taylor Fisher takes 5lbs off him and might give him a chance to finish a bit closer than he did last time.

    Another big price fancy is Kape Moss, who could provide a first Royal winner for Billy Loughnane. He rides for his father David, and claims a crucial 3lbs. Kape Moss may not have top class handicap form, but her last two races have been in listed company, and couldn’t just get to the winner at Haydock last time out. She’s well handicapped, and with a talented rider on board, she could spring a surprise at 28/1 (General).

    Selections:

    14:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) – La Guarida @ 7/1 (Boylesports)

    15:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – Olivia Maralda @ 6/1 (10Bet, Betfred, Boylesports, BetGoodwin)

    15:40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN (NAP) @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK), Kinross e/w @ 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    16:20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – PYLEDRIVER (E/W) @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    17:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – KHANJAR (H’CAP) @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill), First Folio e/w @ 25/1 (General), Kape Moss e/w @ 28/1 (General)

    17:35 – Golden Gates H’cap – Lion Of War @ 6/1 (General)

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    18:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – Stratum @ 5/2 (Unibet, Betfred, BetVictor), Falcon Eight e/w @ 15/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

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    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

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    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

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    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • The Royal Ascot Treble: Tahiyra

    The Royal Ascot Treble: Tahiyra

     

    With Tuesday out of the spotlight, for the third leg of our Royal Ascot Treble the lights fall on Friday’s Coronation Stakes.

    Twenty-four hours on from Ladies’ Day, the fillies strut their stuff over 1m with nine runners on the slate.

    Having missed out in the 1000 Guineas to Mawj, is revenge on the cards at the Royal Meeting for Tahiyra?

     

    Winning pedigree

    Like many of the youngsters on show this week, it has been a whirlwind past year for Tahiyra.

    Having put down an early marker with a five-length win on debut at Galway, winning the Moyglare in just her second outing – a Group 1 no less – highlighted the filly’s burgeoning class.

    Taking a two-for-two record across the Irish Sea, the 1000 Guineas was always a big task, but the step-up in trip almost proved a non-issue. Almost.

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    Bouncing back on home soil in the Irish 1000 Guineas, defeat to Mawj would still have been raw, but there is the sense that the Coronation Stakes come at the perfect time.

    Indeed, as the sister of St. James’s Palace Stakes contender Paddington, Tahiyra could make Siyouni a very happy parent.

     

    Will Mawj prevail?

    Having spent the winter in Dubai, Mawj looks a more complete package; her win at Newmarket proved so.

    It’s now three on the spin in the colours of Godolphin, after a Meydan double to begin the year.

    But when faced with a familiar foe once more – one who could become quite the rival in the coming months and years – will Saeed Bin Suroor be celebrating again?

    Whilst on paper it looks a straight shootout, Sounds of Heaven could yet throw a spanner in the works.

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    A horse in-form, victory here at a likely double-figure price will be number three on the bounce.

    Winning at York last time out at an SP of 14/1 booked Sounds of Heaven a spot here and if Tahiyra has strong lineage, so too does this filly.

    The daughter of Kingman who won all but one of his career races – including a Greenham, a St. James’s Palace and Sussex Stakes – might now see his own offspring grab the limelight.

    Make no mistake, Sounds of Heaven could challenge.

  • Four Bets To Follow Dont Be Dower

    Four Bets To Follow Dont Be Dower

    After a chaotic Saturday, comes a calmer Sunday. We have more time to hone in on the Curragh and dissect the Best Bets from Ireland, on Irish 1000 Guineas Day.

    2:45 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Luxembourg @ 3/1 (William Hill)

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    This may be a small field, but it is bursting with quality. I was with Vadeni all of last season, and I’d love to see how he has matured now he’s four. I was with Bay Bridge when he caused the biggest upset of all last season, when beating Baaeed, but it was a disappointing reappearance in the Prix Ganay. Luxembourg won the Irish Champion Stakes last season, and was pitted as an underdog against Vadeni. But he was mighty impressive, and couldn’t follow up in his final start in the Arc. He didn’t impress first time out this season, but I suspect he was woolly and not up to full fitness. I’ve no doubt today he will be, and has the beating of the top two in the market.

    3:15 – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group Two) – Insinuendo @ 3/1 (William Hill)

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    This is Insinuendo’s level. She loves the Curragh as well, and has mountains of form to go on. She was disappointing, only managing fourth last time out, but she has the bounce back in her. She drops back from a mile and two, to just a mile which suits her perfectly, plus the drying ground shouldn’t be too bad, so long as there is a bit of cut for her to go on.

    Keep an eye out for Star Girls Aalmal. She might not look group two level, but she did finish fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year, and runs well on drying ground. Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which can be a positive and she’s every right to run a big race at 12/1 (William Hill)

    3:50 – Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Tahiyra @ 8/15 (General)

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    Tahiyra is a cut above the rest for me. Dermot Weld said after her run in the English 1000 Guineas that the ground ‘slightly nullified’ her, which is her excuse. If that is what we have to blame, there should be no excuses for her getting her win today. Of course, people will look to Meditate as the value, but Meditate was beaten 11-and-a-half lengths by Tahiyra. Meditate is a good horse in her own right, but when Tahiyra is around, she can’t seem to get the better of her. Even at odds on, I have to take Tahiyra.

    If you are looking for trends, then here is one. Out of the last ten running’s, six of the winners ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial. There’s only one horse this year who ran in that race. Dower House. She may not look the best pick on paper after failing to win a listed contest last time out. But, she is a sister to Churchill and Clemmie. She has the pedigree of a 1000 Guineas winner, but maybe not the profile. She might be in here as a pace setter for Meditate, but stranger things have happened… 50/1 (William Hill)

    My tricast would be; Tahiyra; Meditate; Dower House

    4:25 – Gallinule Stakes (Group Three) – Drumroll @ 6/5 (William Hill)

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    Ryan Moore. Aidan O’Brien. Saxon Warrior. Favourite. Need I say more? If Paddington wins the 2000 Guineas of the Saturday it would make Drumroll odds-on. Possibly Derby horse? Maybe not, but watch out for the entries for the Irish Derby.

    The very best of luck.

    (Odds are correct of 18:30 on Friday 26/05)

  • Tattersalls Irish Guineas Festival 2023: BestofBets at The Curragh

    Tattersalls Irish Guineas Festival 2023: BestofBets at The Curragh

    As flat season kicks into top gear, Betfred Derby Weekend is almost upon us.

    Before that however, all eyes on are on The Curragh this weekend for Irish Guineas Festival.

    With Saturday’s race the headline act, Sunday then sees two elite Group 1 contests with both the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Irish 1000 Guineas.

    Once again we’ve taken a broad look at the runners and riders in County Kildare and picked a favourite and a longer-value outsider to consider.

     

    Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (Saturday, 15:40, 1m)

     

    Favourite: Taking on both the runner-up and third-placed finisher of the 2000 Guineas in Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman is no mean feat.

    However, we are backing Aidan O’Brien stock in Paddington to take the winning post.

    A trainer with no less than 11 winners in this race, the 53-year-old from County Wexford last won with Ryan Moore aboard Guineas double-winner Churchill in 2017.

    Paddington comes into this with three wins on the trot after coming fifth on debut at Ascot last September.

    Not only that, but the son of Siyouni loves The Curragh – not marmalade sandwiches, allegedly – with a 100% record in County Kildare and on Irish turf more widely.

    Having drifted out to 9/2 with BoyleSports, Paddington could still be a smart bet.

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    Outsider: Charyn looks an interesting punt to do well at a price.

    Having come eighth at 66/1 in the 2000 Guineas, the Irish colt faded over the final furlongs after a prominent showing.

    Yet, a runner-up at Newbury last month, Charyn has shown the pace for the field even if the final yards prove an issue.

    We feel Newmarket could be a valuable learning curve for Roger Varian‘s ride however, and with two career wins to date, might be e/w value at 20/1 with William Hill.

     

    Tattersalls Gold Cup (Sunday, 14:45, 1m2½f)

     

    Favourite: After Adayar pulled out to focus on Royal Ascot, his defeated foe from the Gordon Richards Stakes, Anmaat, looks to have a clear ride here. Or does he?

    Bay Bridge could just upset the applecart.

    Taken down a peg with a loss to State of Rest in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes 11 months back, the 5yo beat Adayar in the Champion Stakes at the back end of last term’s flat season.

    This, like many names this weekend will be an Irish debut for the colt who was formerly rated in the top five horses in the world – alongside the likes of Baaeed and Nature Strip.

    Having previously gone unbeaten in five between 2021 and last year’s surprise loss at Royal Ascot, Bay Bridge looks ready for Sir Michael Stoute – a winner previously with Opera House and Notnowcato.

    Keen to stake his claim for a unprecedented Berkshire double in less than a month’s time, at around 3/1, is a price that could be profitable.

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    Outsider: For a longer shot however, we turn again to A P O’Brien and the in-form Point Lonsdale.

    Fresh from a win in the Huxley at Chester earlier this month, Ryan Moore looks poised once more.

    Ridden to victory by Wayne Lordan here last month, the horse beaten only once in four trips to The Curragh – by Native Trail no less – has to be a strong consideration.

    Given his start to the campaign and having shown his ability to cut through a field at the same trip, Point Lonsdale could be a heavyweight punt at weighty 12/1 (consult bookies nearer race time.)

     

    Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (Sunday, 15:50, 1m)

     

    Favourite:  As the ladies take their turn at The Curragh on Sunday, Tahiyra looks the cream of the crop.

    Set to renew rivalries with Meditate from the Moyglare last Autumn on this very track, the filly may have been the beaten favourite to Mawj on the Rowley Mile, but is gunning for a second home classic win.

    An impressive debut winner at Galway, her Aga Khan owner will be keen for a return to winning ways.

    That looks a good thing at as short as 8/15 with Betfred. Possibly the NAP of the weekend.

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    Outsider: For our third and final dash at a big priced hopeful, Breege gets the nod.

    As the British rookie makes her Irish debut after a French pilgrimage at Longchamp in the Prix Marcel Boussac last time out in October, could the youngster make a impact on season debut?

    Third to Lezoo in the Keeneland Stakes last July, Breege has shown calibre but will a step-up in trip prove taxing?

    In any event, having finished third at worst in all four UK turf rides, could the Brit raider steal in for another place at 33/1 with 888Sport?

    Hmm.