Best Of Bets

Tag: Shishkin

  • Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    With Warwick and Uttoxeter, it really is a Super Saturday at Newbury today. We’ve got star quality with Shishkin in the Denman and the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle with trainers from both sides of the Irish Sea looking to land the big pot. Here’s four to look out for on the card in Berkshire today.

     

    Super Sam

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    2:05 – Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Sam Brown @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    With heavy ground setting the precedent for the day, it makes sense to back the mud-lovers. Despite Shishkin being odds-on, he got pulled on heavy ground when it was similar ground at Sandown back in December. Nicky Henderson has said he will not pull the horse due to the ground, but we’ve seen it happen before.

    Protektorat hasn’t won a race in over a year, Hitman can’t travel three miles and Does He Know won’t act on the ground. It makes sense to back Sam Brown after his Classic Chase demolition on soft ground at Warwick last month. A three-time winner on heavy ground has seen his odds slash in half and it makes sense to back him against a vulnerable Shishkin.

     

    Surprise result

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    2:40 – Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Boothill @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    With Editeur Du Gite confirmed to be pulled, four runners will go to post for a rather lacklustre renewal of the Game Spirit Chase. Edwardstone drops back to two miles after disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase, but the ground looks as though is against him as it will be for his other three opponents.

    There’s only one pound in favour for Edwardstone over Boothill and Amarillo Sky. Amarillo Sky hasn’t run since last year’s Champion Chase, and Boothill is by far the most successful horse in the field. Despite the ground being as testing as it is, Boothill could spring a surprise in the mud against a top two-mile chaser.

     

    French fancy

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    3:15 – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Ocastle Des Mottes @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When Willie Mullins brings one over, for a big handicap, heads do turn. The fact this is a French arrival, and a good one at that, turns even more heads. Despite after a break of over 230 days, Ocastle Des Mottes will be fully prepared for the challenge. Plus, his previous form on heavy ground in France will benefit him massively.

    Spirit D’Aunou will relish this ground. Two out of his last three wins have come on testing surfaces. And despite being raised 10lbs, and second in the weights, the ground will override those factors. Gary Moore has been focused on this race for him, the fact the ground has come up heavy is a massive plus. 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports) seems fair, but it could be backed in the morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times in the last ten years. Five out of the last ten years have been double figure prices. If you follow those simple trends, you’ll find Norman Fletcher. His last win came on heavy ground and was convincing. This is his first time in this company, and he comes in under the radar at a rather low weight. If he wins at 25/1 (General), we won’t be stuck eating porridge.

     

    Bumper bonus

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    4:25 – Beacons Bumper (NHF Race, Listed) – Union Avenue @ 4/1 (General)

    In a race I wouldn’t usually tip, there’s a few things I like about Union Avenue. Firstly, Jimmy Moffat is bringing this horse down from Cumbria, which must mean he thinks a lot about this horse. Secondly, the trainer is a soft ground merchant. Out of his 18 winners, with five on heavy going. Thirdly, Union Avenue finished behind a certain Captain Bellamy on his final point-to-point start, with the form franked when he won at Chepstow in October.

    The very best of luck

  • Four To Follow: A Poor Turnout

    Four To Follow: A Poor Turnout

    It’s the first domestic Grade One of the season, the Betfair Chase at Haydock, featuring a high-class, yet small, field. It’s a poor turnout for Ascot’s two Grade Two races, which includes the return of a certain Shishkin. The handicap highlight is an intriguing three-mile contest, so let’s get stuck in to this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Haydock

    Lord of the ‘Dock

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    2:20 – “Serial Winners” Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Lord Snootie @ 9/1 (Boylesports)

    Crambo is a very likeable type, but no favourite has won this race in 13 years. Therefore 11/4 offers no value at all.

    Lord Snootie is back in the UK after two runs in Ireland, one credible fifth at Punchestown. Trewlawne beat Lord Snootie at Uttoxeter on his previous British start, and has backed the form with a winning chase debut. The two-pound is lenient and, despite being lightly raced, the ground will be ideal with a three mile point-to-point win coming on similar ground.

    Goshhowposh is another that makes some appeal. A good handicap mark of 121 will suit, after four career runs. His run at Exeter saw him win, going away from the field and the step up in trip will suit. He has never finished outside the top four, and can manage a four pound rise to be up there at the finish. 11/1 (William Hill)

    Emitom seems to have found a new lease of life after to moving to Alan King. A win first time out for the new stable, and a second on seasonal reappearance, he’s got something in the tank for a nine-year-old.

    He was a winner of the Rendlesham Hurdle, back in 2020, over C&D, but fell off the ladder before moving stable. A mark of 127 won’t trouble him and a decent price of 12/1 (General) is one to take.

     

    Man Against Boys

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    3:00 – Betfair Chase (Grade One) – Bravemansgame @ 4/5 (William Hill, BetUK)

    It seems self-explanatory. If Bravemansgame didn’t feature, it would be a poor Grade One. It’s a poor turnout anyway, but Bravemansgame should outclass the field.

    Dan Skelton’s runners aren’t firing first time out, which casts doubt over Protektorat. Royale Pagaille will want it much softer than advertised. It will be interesting to see what Corach Rambler does in Grade One company, and he’s a likeable figure. Best bet for me would be a tricast of Bravemansgame, Corach Rambler and Royale Pagaille.

     

    Ascot

    Smashing Shish, Poor Pic

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    1:30 – 1965 Chase (Grade Two) – Shishkin @ 4/6 (General)

    1965 was the year that Ascot introduced jump racing to the track. What is a premier racing track/venue should have bulging field sizes. Today 39 runners (pre non-runners) will take part. It’s an incredibly poor turnout, but it’s made up by the return of Shishkin. When people thought he was avoiding a tough trip first time out, I think were wrong. This a perfect race to get his season started, and a déjà vu match with Pic D’orhy too.

     

    The Other Stage

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    2:05 – Coral Hurdle (Grade Two) – Theatre Glory @ 11/4 (BetUK)

    Nicky Henderson has been particularly bullish about this horse, and I can support him on that view. Goshen is always inconsistent and won a low-class renewal last season. Blueking D’Oroux was a decent winner at Cheltenham in October but was hardly tested. Strong Leader was hugely disappointing in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. And, Sceau Royal has his best races behind him. By process of elimination, Theatre Glory is the pick.

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2023: BestofBets’ festival favourites

    Cheltenham 2023: BestofBets’ festival favourites

    The Cheltenham Festival. One of the big betting weeks of the year across the British Isles and many miles farther afield.

    As the cream of the National Hunt scene assemble once more in Gloucestershire, 28 races across four days lie ahead.

    This year’s edition on paper, has more arguably more open races but there will of course always be the favourites.

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    That tag on many occasions – particularly at Cheltenham – has often led to thousands of betslips being shredded in ire.

    This is sports betting, after all.

    But of the races on the slate, just where is the big money for Cheltenham 2023?

    We’ve highlighted one from each day of the festival.

    Tuesday, 3:30, Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 4yo+, 2m½f)

    Where else can we begin than with Constitution Hill.

    Though not undefeated after a debut loss, everything to follow has been molded to gold for the British gelding.

    Not yet at the two-year point of his career, the 6yo has destroyed the competition in his last five contests by over 10 lengths.

    Romping to last year’s Supreme by 22 lengths, Constitution Hill and Nico De Boinville are unbeaten since December 2021.

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    Taking down Epatante twice in-a-row, the French mare is back for another crack, however, State Man appears the biggest threat.

    The overwhelming Champion Hurdle favourite, Constitution Hill could be pushed after Willie Mullins’ horse won the Irish equivalent last time out.

    Beating both Vauban and Honeysuckle at Leopardstown, State Man was a Cheltenham debut winner last year also in the County Hurdle.

    Mullins might yet believe he is in the fight but from a betting point of view, Constitution Hill is a sure thing.

    The biggest of favourites at 1/3, now available at evens with William Hill’s Epic Value offer.

    Wednesday, 4:10, Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, (Grade 2, 5yo+, 3m6f)

    Of the four days, picking Wednesday’s favourite banker is the hardest, but Delta Work appears the best shot.

    Having taken the baton from mighty stablemate Tiger Roll in last year’s epic face-off up the hill, the now 10yo spearheads Gordon Elliott’s charge.

    Third in the Grand National as a follow-up act last spring, a narrow win then came at Punchestown back in November.

    His last outing at Cheltenham however, was far from a shining example of his ability.

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    Nor was finishing sixth at Navan last time out to eventual winner and now Stayers’ Hurdle pick, Blazing Khal.

    Delta Work has a chance of revenge here however, in a race he knows how to outlast the field in.

    With the predicted softer going after this week’s deluge, it looks the sensible bet.

    The most interesting narrative on hand, Davy Russell – a two-time National winner with Tiger Roll in the same colours – jumps on board here.

    A contest that has suited his elder custodians in the past, Delta Work is still a decent 11/10 with William Hill.

    Thursday, 2:50, Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 5yo+, 2m4½f)

    How sweet it is to see Shishkin back in racing colours and seemingly at his best.

    Like last year before the Champion Chase, the son of Sholokhov will go off as favourite to take his festival tally to three wins.

    But will 2023 see redemption?

    A former winner of the Supreme and the Arkle, Shishkin feels like a Cheltenham veteran but has much to prove in the Ryanair Chase.

    Pulled up 12 months back, Shishkin failed to travel and was left rather sore.

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    Rather worse off in coming third in his first outing this season, the Tingle Creek, Shishkin sustained a kick before the race at Sandown.

    Forced to undergo wind surgery, he then roared back with a 16-length romp in the Ascot Chase only weeks ago.

    Leaving his many fans dreaming again, Blue Lord will be a tough opponent, but Shishkin looks a good bet for another Cheltenham win.

    A fairly heavy favourite at 4/5 with Betfred.

    Friday, 3:30, Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 5yo+, 3m2½f)

    And so to the big one. The main event of the week.

    Galopin Des Champs is the favourite in the markets by some way and surely Gold Cup winner-in-waiting.

    It feels like destiny is waiting to send the French 7yo home.

    Memories of his fall at the final fence on St. Patrick’s Day last year are still fresh in the mind for punters.

    Then looking for a fifth win on the bounce in the 2022 Turners’, mount Paul Townend led Rachael Blackmore up the hill by some 12 lengths.

    With victory almost assured, Galopin Des Champs then inexplicably stumbled and fell leaving Cheltenham stunned.

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    Almost apologetically, Bob Olinger then cantered to the winning post almost unchallenged.

    Lesser horses may have been mentally scarred by such a loss, so how did this gelding respond?

    Winning the Novice Gold Cup Chase at Fairyhouse, of course.

    Then this season, the Punchestown Chase; and more recently the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown.

    All is in place for one more Gold Cup to be added – and on St Patrick’s Day no less.

    With a winning margin by at least 8 lengths in every race since, cynics might say only a fall could deny him again.

    There is huge goodwill for Galopin Des Champs and at 15/8 with Hills’, there is also ample value.