Best Of Bets

Tag: royal ascot bets

  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us following a great opening day to the royal meeting on Tuesday, one that saw the column finish in profit.

    After the first three selections, we looked slightly up against the ropes, but Israr (the best bet) winning the Listed Wolferton Stakes and Lmay finishing second at 25/1 in the Copper Horse Handicap turned the day around.

    Let’s hope for a bit more success today.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Illinois @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Similar to fancying Israr yesterday, I think Illinois could have too much for his rivals in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase Stakes.

    The three-year-old by Galileo is regally bred as he is a half to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and King George winner Danedream (who handled quicker surfaces) and is a full brother to the Group 1-placed Venice Beach who also won on good ground.

    Therefore, despite his prior form on heavy and soft ground, a sounder surface at Ascot should suit.

    The Coolmore homebred won on debut and has failed to repeat that feat since, but he was a staying-on second to Ambiente Friendly (the Epsom Derby runner-up) in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the third, Meydaan, has won the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes since.

    Before that, he ran a sound race on dire ground in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown having finished third in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start as a two-year-old.

    The form of that race looks good as the winner (Los Angeles) won the Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial Stakes on his next start, the fourth (Ramadan) was fifth in the French Guineas, and the fifth (Bracken’s Laugh) finished second in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester.

    The step up in trip should work and, ultimately, he looks like the best horse in this field.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Running Lion @ 10/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    With my frequently-used ‘forgiving hat’ on, I’m making a case for Running Lion returning back to her best in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

    The four-year-old had a muddling season last year as she looked like a world-beater in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes but then failed to recreate that form in four subsequent runs.

    That day, she beat Sumo Sam (a subsequent two-time Group 2 winner) by four-and-a-half lengths on ground officially described as soft, though the time of the race suggests it was slightly better than that.

    Connections tried her over 1m2f on her next two starts, the best effort of which came at Salisbury when second to State Occasion, and then stepped her up to 1m4f for her final two runs of the year.

    At Newmarket in the Group 3 Dubai Stakes, she hung a bit to her left (as she did on her seasonal return in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes this year) and could only manage third, and in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, she probably found the extended trip on soft ground too much for her.

    Her tendency to hang to her left is interesting as her most notable case of it came at the start of this year.

    Considering she seemed fine when she winning around a right-handed bend at Kempton last year, there’s an argument to suggest that today’s assignment on the Ascot round course might help keep her mind on the job.

    If she does, bits of her form looks better than most of her rivals in this field and her pedigree leans towards better ground, something she gets today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Streets Of Gold @ 18/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pts EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Royal Hunt Cup is a tricky handicap to get a hold of in most years, though I’d happy to take a small chance on Streets Of Gold.

    The four-year-old has contested three handicaps in his career, winning one of them and finishing a good sixth on his latest start in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs.

    He travelled with a wet sail that day under three-pound claimer Georgia Dobie and the handicapper has dropped him one pound for his effort, a welcome sight.

    Based on his pedigree, it’s fairly remarkable that he’s adapted himself so well to these shorter distances as he comes from the family of Treasure Beach (the 2011 Irish Derby winner), Elidor (a 1m6f Listed winner), and Count Octave (runner-up in the 2018 Group 2 Lonsdale Cup to Stradivarius).

    So, his pedigree suggests that a step up in trip could work out for him, and the form of his third in last year’s Group 3 Jersey Stakes is solid.

    With Charlie Bishop back in the saddle, he can outrun his odds in the Royal Hunt Cup.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Rowayeh @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Kensington Palace Stakes takes place on the straight course for the first time in its history and all of the last three renewals have gone to a four-year-old, serving as a small nod of confidence to Rowayeh.

    The Dubawi filly progressed nicely as a three-year-old as she finished third in her opening race of the season to Silver Lady, a future Group 2 Cape Verdi winner in Meydan.

    After that, she won at Beverley and then won on handicap debut at Sandown, a race that has worked out well as the second (Mystic Pearl) won a Listed race on her next start and finished third in this race last year.

    Following that, her form continued to improve as she finished third at Goodwood to Choisya (now rated 100) in a Class 3 handicap, another race that looks good in the form book as the second (Novus) has improved 21 pounds to a rating of 107 and the fourth (Royal Dress) has improved 16 pounds to a mark of 102.

    One can argue that her final start of the season came at the end of a congested campaign, and there are plenty of positives to take from her seasonal reappearance against the boys at Newmarket when you consider that she needed the run.

    Although she has form on good to soft ground, she is by Dubawi and out of a War Front mare whose relations all preferred soft ground.

    Furthermore, her dam (Alaflaak) is a War Front half to the dam of Baaeed, Hukum, and Naqeeb which is a nice pedigree point.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Pont Neuf @ 10/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The only two-year-old bet I had yesterday didn’t work out too well, but I haven’t lost faith in all juveniles yet as I’m a fan of Eve Johnson Houghton’s Pont Neuf in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes.

    Firstly, it’s worth highlighting Matt Chapman’s interview with Johnson Houghton from Windsor on Monday as her confidence behind this gelding by Cotai Glory was high.

    It’s understandable why, as he is two from two and his success at Salisbury last month was huge.

    On ground that probably wasn’t to his liking, the 24,000gns purchase dug deep and passed rivals to win by three-quarters of a length.

    The second, Kassaya, was in receipt of nine pounds from the winner and is a Nathaniel half-sister to last year’s 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean and the third, Megalithic, franked the form subsequently with a sound effort in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom.

    Also, if you’re inclined to read into collateral form, Megalithic was second to Teej A in the Woodcote Stakes and Teej A beat yesterday’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar at Chester in May.

    With a good ground-orientated pedigree, he should relish a return to a sounder surface and the way he moved through his Salisbury win suggests a stiff five at Ascot could play to his strengths.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot Day 1 is upon us and the excitement levels are extremely high.

    In the lead-up to the royal meeting, the ground was causing a few issues as many forecasts had predicted nearly 20mm of rainfall ahead of the Queen Anne Stakes.

    However, that didn’t materialise and the course has artificially added 5mm onto the straight and round courses.

    So, with quick ground accounted into the studying, here are my plays for Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    2:30 Ascot – Dolayli @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    This year’s Queen Anne has many big names to consider.

    Facteur Cheval, Charyn, Big Rock, Royal Scotsman, and Audience all set a good standard, but the one that appeals to me the most is Dolayli who has a different profile from most in the race.

    Of the five-year-old’s last six races, four have occurred on the all-weather, the most recent of which happened in March when he beat Junko by five lengths.

    Admittedly, Junko was having his first run for 89 days, but he won the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and Group 1 Grosser Preis von Bayern in the space of a month prior to that reappearance which is a solid standard of form.

    Furthermore, Junko won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly at the start of this month to further frank the form.

    In Dolayli’s two runs subsequently, he finished third in the Group 2 Prix du Muguet and then improved to finish fourth in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.

    As for the strength of that piece of form, the winner (Mqse De Sevigne) was third in last season’s Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and won two other Group 1 contests before that, the second (Horizon Dore) chased home King Of Steel in the 2023 Group 1 Champion Stakes, and the third (Haya Zark) had just won the Group 1 Prix Ganay.

    Furthermore, the fifth (Blue Rose Cen) won three Group 1s last season and the sixth (Marhaba Ya Sanafi) won the Group 3 Prix Bertrand du Breuil recently.

    Finally, just to add to his case, his pedigree is ludicrous on paper.

    His dam (Dolniya) won the 2015 Group 1 Sheema Classic and he is by the super-sire Siyouni.

    A strongly-run straight mile should suit and he’ll appreciate the faster ground.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Cowardofthecounty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    I’m not one to bet in two-year-old races too often, but Cowardofthecounty produced a performance so striking on debut that is hard to ignore.

    His win at the end of April came on soft to heavy ground, but he put two-and-a-half lengths between himself and Whistlejacket (Aidan O’Brien’s full brother to Little Big Bear) who franked the form on his next start as he won the Listed First Flier Stakes.

    Will he like the fast ground? Well, he is by Kodi Bear who produces a fair amount of fast ground horses, his half-brother Cassy O won three times on good to firm, and his grand-dam produced Junia Tepzia, the 2009 Listed Premio Coolmore winner on good ground.

    That pedigree analysis offers a good bit of confidence behind him liking the ground and following his win at the Curragh, Kevin Blake (race planner to Joseph O’Brien) was full of praise on the Betfair Weighed-In podcast.

    Hopefully, he justifies his market position with a nice performance in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes.

     

    3:40 Ascot – Diligent Harry @ 16/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the newly-named Group 1 King Charles III Stakes, Diligent Harry looks too big of a price to leave alone.

    Trainer Clive Cox has never shied away from speaking his mind in regards to what he thinks about this six-year-old by Due Diligence, and he’s also backed that up with his recent race planning.

    Connections aimed him at the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Meydan in search of some better ground and he delivered for them to finish third in a hot race.

    The winner, California Spangle, was banging heads with Golden Sixty over in Hong Kong at eight furlongs last year, so his level of form is strong, and beating the likes of Slight Success (Lucky Sweynesse form), Casa Creed, and Danyah is admirable.

    As for his UK performances, he beat Annaf over six furlongs at Lingfield last year, form that looks good as the second won the Group 2 1351 Turf Sprint in Riyadh in February.

    He also beat Witch Hunter (subsequent Group 1 Lockinge Stakes third) over six furlongs at Newcastle and the form of last year’s Group 3 Hackwood Stakes looks strong thanks to Cold Case and Shartash.

    Following a good reappearance in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes last month, Cox is “desperately keen” to run this horse over five furlongs at Ascot and there is a lot to like about his profile.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Israr @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    I’m happy to go out on a limb and say that the Wolferton Stakes is between two horses in my head, though those two horses are well-found in the market.

    Torito is one of them as he was an eye-catcher at Newmarket when third in a nice handicap on his first start for 11 months, but I think Israr could have too much for him at this level.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is a solid Group 2 performer who is dropping into Listed company for the first time since his second to Quickthorn, a subsequent six-length Group 1 Goodwood Cup winner, in last year’s Grand Cup Stakes.

    After that, he pumped Adayar in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and four months later, he chased home Spirit Dancer in the Group 2 Bahrain International Stakes.

    On his most recent start, he gave Passenger (the once Prince Of Wales’s Stakes ante-post favourite) a great race to finish second in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes. He was also backed into the SP favourite that day, which is notable.

    As for his Ascot record, he was second to Al Qareem in the 2023 Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes and also finished third in the 2022 King George V Stakes, so that stat shows he’s fine with the track.

    If he runs up to his bets form, it’ll take a good horse to beat him.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Naqeeb @ 14/1 with William Hill (5 places) & Lmay @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pts EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the finale, I’m taking on the head of the market with two regally bred four-year-olds as Naqeeb and Lmay appeal to me.

    Starting with the former, the Baaeed half-brother has yet to reach the heights of his famous sibling, but pieces of form make him interesting.

    The gelding is rocking first-time cheekpieces, something that is bound to benefit him as he has shown tendencies to hang in his races and William Haggas’ strike rate with first-time cheekpieces is favourable (see tweet below).

    Connections entered Naqeeb into the Gold Cup at this very meeting hoping he would turn into a Group 1 horse, but he bombed out in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup on his latest start, so they have lowered their sights to the Copper Horse Handicap instead.

    However, one can partially see why they thought he may end up in the marquee race of the royal meeting as he finished second to Middle Earth (a Group 3 winner with Melbourne Cup aspirations) on his third career start before bolting up at Kempton in a novice event.

    That form looks good and he is unexposed in handicap company having won on his only delve into this sphere, so Naqeeb is a bet here.

    As for Lmay, the 650,000gns yearling purchase is by Frankel and comes from that lucrative Juddmonte family of Logician, Okeechobee, and Suffused.

    This is her handicap debut as she contested Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 races last season, notably when a close third in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    Her form with Sumo Sam, One Evening, Tregony, Warm Heart, and Bluestocking is very solid for a horse rated 96 and she’s bound to come on for her run at York in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.