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Tag: prix de l’arc de triomphe

  • Four To Follow – Arc de Triomphe Tips

    Four To Follow – Arc de Triomphe Tips

    It’s Europe’s premier race, full of legends and history. Who will write their name into the annals of the great Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. There’s also some great competitive Group One’s in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere, Prix de l’Opera and Prix la Foret.

     

    Redemption Masterpiece

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    1:30 – Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere (GROUP ONE) – Henri Matisse @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    It may have been a shock in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, but Henri Matisse had his excuses. He leaned to both the left and right and ran around, confirmed post-race. Now he has first time blinkers on, which is a big positive. He achieved Group Two success in the Futurity back in August and has always looked like one of the premier Aidan O’Brien colts. Ryan Moore has already achieved a treble at Longchamp, with O’Brien with four big wins, and Henri Matisse can continue the trend.

     

    Olympic Champion

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    3:20 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 5/1 (General)

    I’ve racked my brains over this Group One, and I’m still unsure at time of writing. However, I believe I’ve come down on three with big chances.

    One of them is Los Angeles. He’s been very consistent over a mile and a half, but wasn’t ready for the Irish Champion Stakes. This looks to have been in the list of targets after his win in the Irish Derby. He also has form with Illinois, who won yesterday at Longchamp, after he only lost by a neck in the Great Voltigeur. He can be very competitive for the in-form yard.

    Aventure has also been consistent back in France. She only finished a length down in the Prix de Diane back in June before achieving Group Two success in the Prix de Pomone. Finishing three-quarters of a length down last time out in the Prix Vermeille, she can bid to follow in the footsteps of the great mares who have won this race. 20/1 (William Hill, Boylesports).

    Continuous has been severely underestimated in my opinion. We saw an O’Brien second string win the feature yesterday, and Continuous won’t go in to be a pacemaker. The former St Leger winner hasn’t had the best of seasons, with his only victory coming over 10 furlongs. But he was a good fifth in last year’s renewal and will love both the ground and trip and has proven to outstay some in this field. 28/1 (William Hill).

     

    The Wrong Choice?

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    4:05 – Prix de l’Opera (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 11/2 (General)

    I think that Ryan Moore may have made the wrong choice in this race. Ylang Ylang hasn’t placed at all this season and best performances have come over a mile. Content is more proven at the middle distance after finishing second in the Irish Oaks, then winning the Yorkshire Oaks. The soft ground and step down in trip puts her over the edge of her favoured stablemate for me.

    At a price Hanalia looks attractive for Johnny Murtagh. She was outclassed in her only Group One start, the Irish Oaks, but was a good winner on Irish Champions Weekend in the Blandford Stakes. She can handle the trip, but ground could be a question. However she is unexposed in that department and has credentials to run a place. 14/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Un Pour France

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    4:40 – Prix La Foret (GROUP ONE) – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 (General)

    Ramatuelle has had a long layoff and a slight step down in trip today, may be the difference. She was narrowly beaten in the 1000 Guineas, which the form has been electric all season (and Tamfana finally got her win yesterday). In her native France she’ll be used to the quirks with the ground, and the French can walk away from Arc weekend with their heads held high.

    The very best of luck!

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Day one of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe began well yesterday as the best bet of the day, VANDEEK, obliged in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, further improving his reputation and my love for him.

    Today, the feature event takes place at 3:05 and I have a fancy to share as well as two other horses to consider.

    It’s set to be a brilliant day today and I can’t wait for the action to begin.

     

    3:05 Longchamp: Westover @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As is the nature of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, no one would be knocked off their feet if any of the 15 runners passed the famous winning post in front.

    Remember, it’s only been two years since Torquator Tasso won the prestigious 1m4f contest at odds of 72/1, so anything can truly happen.

    I’m hoping that won’t happen this year as Westover is my number one Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe horse.

    The four-year-old colt by Frankel has performed brilliantly all season in four separate Group 1 races; his worst run of the year occurred when second to Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup at Epsom which says a lot.

    Ralph Beckett’s stable star began the season with a massive run in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Meydan behind the world-class Equinox; three horses who finished behind Westover in the Sheema Classic – Zagrey, Russian Emperor, and Mostahdaf – have all won Group 1 races since with the latter succeeding in the Prince Of Wales’s and Juddmonte International.

    Following his fine effort at Epsom in June, he swept aside Zagrey in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before his valiant effort when second to Hukum in the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes on his most recent outing.

    The reason why I’m with Westover rather than Hukum is due to the difference in the draw – stall one for Westover against stall 14 for Hukum – and there seems to be an aroma around Owen Burrows’ Sea The Stars entire that he doesn’t want rattling fast ground.

    With this in mind, Westover will have no problems with the official going of good, good to firm in places, and at 7/1, he is my bet in the season-defining race.

     

    3:50 Longchamp: Lumiere Rock @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Opera is a tricky puzzle to work out as many questions require answers ahead of the 10-furlong fillies and mares contest.

    Will Blue Rose Cen bounce back on the ground? Can we forgive Al Husn for York? Why has Tony Carroll not got a runner in the race?

    Each of those questions is as pertinent as one another, though the horse who seems to hold most of the answers is Joseph O’Brien’s Lumiere Rock at 6/1.

    The chestnut filly by Saxon Warrior is no stranger to competitive, high-class races thanks to her five consecutive attempts in Group-level contests since the start of May.

    The three-year-old, purchased for just 55,000gns at the 2021 Tattersalls October Yearlings Sale, got her head in front for the first time this season in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes last time out.

    Again, one could question where Jackie Oh, who reappears today, might have finished if her path to the line was clear, yet let’s take nothing away from the eventual winner who looked like the winner for the majority of the contest.

    Furthermore, her second in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot reads favourably thanks to two subsequent Group 1 victories for the winner, Warm Heart; Bluestocking (3rd) ran well on her next two starts in Group 1 company and even the eighth, Lmay, finished third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster recently.

    She is likely to appreciate the better ground and with the cheekpieces remaining on for today’s task, Lumiere Rock should be a lively contender in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

     

    5:00 Longchamp: Kelina @ 16/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    My persistence to take on Kinross at every station this season has experienced its ups and downs, though my bank account is beginning to get worried after his two victories at York and Goodwood recently.

    Despite his obvious claims, the 16/1 floating about for Kelina in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret is too big to leave alone as an each-way proposition.

    The three-year-old filly by Frankel receives a handy four pounds from her older rivals and has progressed nicely for trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias this season.

    Her 2023 kicked off with a nice second in a one-mile event at Longchamp on soft ground in April before a valiant effort to finish fourth in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches behind Blue Rose Cen, a future Group 1 Prix de Diane winner.

    After that, she dropped down in class for the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham where she easily dismissed Sauterne, one of the market principles for the Prix de l’Opera, on her only start on good ground.

    This race is key as looking at her knee action for both her French 1000 Guineas fourth and this success, she seemingly likes to glide into her races rather than using a big stride like Blue Rose Cen has, suggesting today’s good ground should be preferable.

    Although she disappointed at Deauville in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild, that occurred on soft ground so excuses can be made and her effort in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin last time out was respectable.

    Back on faster ground and dropping in trip to seven furlongs, Kelina looks like a fair each-way bet at 16/1.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The Best is Yet to Come

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The Best is Yet to Come

    Every year, there’s a buzz around the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe that is tough to describe.

    Boil the race down and it’s a 1m4f European Group 1, the same type of race we see at the big racing festivals throughout the Flat season.

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    But the Arc is so much more than that; there’s history, nearly £4.5 million in prize money, and an international interest that attracts horses from the UK, Ireland, Germany, France, and even Japan.

    This year’s race looks wide open, and I’ll discuss my fancy in a bonus BestofBets.com column tomorrow, but as for today, there are three horses that I want to be with on Saturday from both Newmarket and Longchamp.

    With good ground expected at both tracks, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Newmarket: Sacred Angel @ 9/2 General – 2pt Win

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    My interest in this year’s Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes took a hit yesterday when the news came out about Relief Rally’s lack of involvement due to a dirty scope.

    As much as the news was sad, my second look at the fillies-only six-furlong contest saw me land on Sacred Angel for Charlie Johnston and James Doyle.

    The Dark Angel filly has raced four times for the Middleham-based yard, winning two of them in commanding fashion from a prominent position.

    The first of these victories came on the Newmarket July Course when a dominant winner of a six-furlong maiden on good to firm ground; she beat Ornellaia (3rd) that day, a horse who won at Glorious Goodwood, finished second in a Group 2 in Deauville, and third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes since.

    Despite the manner of her win, she rocked up to the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes in July as a 16/1-shot and blew the field apart under Jason Hart.

    On collateral form, she put four-and-a-quarter lengths between herself and Symbology who went on to finish a length-and-a-quarter behind Relief Rally in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes next time out.

    Following that victory, connections sent her against the colts in the Group 1 Morny on her first start in softer conditions; despite the slow surface, she showed great character to finish fourth behind Vandeek, Ramatuelle, and River Tiber, potentially some of the most exciting juveniles in the division.

    Today, she has a low draw to overcome which could hinder her chances, but her ability is apparent and 5/1 is a fair price for Sacred Angel in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.

     

    3:00 Newmarket: Vandeek @ 13/8 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    If I’m a fan of Sacred Angel in the proceeding race then I can’t let Vandeek go off unmentioned in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes.

    The Simon & Ed Crisford-trained two-year-old is three from three this year, a run that includes the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time out.

    Of the two, his performance in the Group 1 contest impressed me the most as the ground was officially described as very soft, yet Andrea Atzeni still rode a calm race from the rear of the pack and bided his time.

    This paid off as the beautiful mover cruised into the contest behind the well-backed Ramatuelle and just did enough in time to get up on the line.

    That run completed a hat-trick of wins in softer conditions, though a look through his pedigree suggests that better ground could see him improve further.

    By Havana Grey, a sire who has seen the majority of his offspring race successfully on good or better ground, his Mukhadram half-brother, Mine’s A Double, won three times in a row on good to firm ground, so that offers hope to the idea that he can handle a quicker surface.

    In what is a competitive race that could see the likes of Task Force and Lake Forest outperform their odds, Vandeek is a worthy favourite and should be respected.

     

    4:08 Longchamp: Embesto @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    It really is a shame that Roaring Lion is no longer around to continue what should have been a long and fruitful stallion career because this year has been a standout year for his progeny.

    Running Lion, Saint George, and Valiant King have all performed to great ability over the summer without landing a Group-level race, something that Embesto has achieved.

    The Roger Varian-trained three-year-old dead-heated with Mighty Ulysses last time out in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes when showing plenty of promise; Mighty Ulysses is a hardy colt for John & Thady Gosden who finished a close fifth in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes behind Coroebus in 2022 and even beat Alflaila, a horse who would go on to win four races in a row, by just over a length in the Listed Pomfret Stakes.

    Furthermore, Regal Reality crossed the line in third that day and has since finished a staying-on second to Mutasaabeq in the Group 2 Joel Stakes yesterday.

    On that form, he requires respect and he is one of the few in this field that prefers better ground unlike some of the market principles ahead of him.

    Admittedly, Isaac Shelby could show us all what he promised in defeat to the likes of Kinross and Paddington this season, but on the chance that he doesn’t appreciate the ground, the each-way angle of Embesto intrigues me at 6/1.

  • Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    It’s a great weekend for sports fans. The Ryder Cup is in full swing, another great weekend of Premier League football and the Rugby World Cup continues. Plus, it’s Arc weekend. For two days Europe’s elite head to ParisLongchamp for Europe’s biggest prize named after one of the city’s most famous landmark. Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? And there’s the small matter of the Cambridgeshire too.

    Saturday – Newmarket

    A Pot of Fortuna

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    2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally is a really unfortunate non-runner, as she has been the standout this season. But the race opens up and, despite the market headed by a talented French filly, I think one at a price can nab this. Porta Fortuna has been placed twice in her two Group One races and steps back to a more suitable six furlongs. She’ll appreciate the firmness at Newmarket today and jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on her once again.

    Another filly that will appreciate the quickness of the ground is Symbology. She’s ran green a few times, and didn’t help her cause at Salisbury last time out. She wasn’t too far away in the Lowther, which is the form you have to consider for this race, and Clive Cox does have a decent crop of two-year-olds in his stable. Not without hope at 22/1 (William Hill)

     

    Take Them To Task

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    3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group One) – Task Force @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    As of last night, Task Force has been backed in to single figures. And with good reason. Already a Listed winner by winning the Ripon 2-Y-O Trophy, he is bred to act on the ground.

    He may be by Frankel, but his Dam, Special Duty, won the Cheveley Park Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground. If that’s not an omen for this seventh foal of hers, I don’t know what is. Seven Questions is the next best horse to come out of the race and he can really act to beat the two big guns today.

    Jasour is another I really fancy. He’s proven on firm ground, with two wins including a Group Two on the quick stuff. He disappointed in the Prix Morny and led all the way, which showed he was green on the day. He has won races before from the rear of the field, which may be the way to ride him on the Rowley Mile. Double-figure price at 10/1 (William Hill)

     

    Identify This Winner

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire Heritage H’cap – Dual Identity @ 11/1 (General)

    When it comes to a 35-runner handicap, there shouldn’t be a 7/2 favourite. Ever. So I’ve immediately discounted Greek Order from my thinking for this race. And it didn’t take me long to find my main pick. Dual Identity had a great third in last year’s race and has only risen four pounds up the weights since then. A fantastic performance at Sandown aimed him squarely for this race, and looks in ideal nick to go better this time around.

    Majestic won last year’s event, and in some fashion too. Young Aiden Brooks has been overtaken by Benoit de la Sayette for this year’s crack, and won’t be too far away this time round. He will carry more weight this year, but a mark of 89 is suitable, particularly since he has been in the 90’s all this season.

    His best performance came at Epsom when second to Cadillac on firm ground, so has that in his favour this year too. He could become the first horse since Prince De Galles in 1970 to win the race back to back, 14/1 (Betfred, William Hill) says he doesn’t.

    And three-year-olds begin to come into their own in handicaps at this time of year, so it would be remiss to not back one here, despite the last youngster to win was Lord North in 2019. Terwada for Ed Walker looks interesting after a rather a good season in the form book. His first big runner handicap at York was a baptism of fire, finishing in the top half of the field.

    He’ll have to rely on a nine length win in a maiden to win here, but he’s only five pounds higher than his previous winning mark for a horse continuously improving. 18/1 (General) is a price worth having.

     

    Sunday – ParisLongchamp

    Rewrite the History Huk-s

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    3:05 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group One) – Hukum @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The last horse that was above the age of six was Motrico in 1932. The last horse to win from stall 14 was Golden Horn’s miracle win in 2014. The stats are firmly against him. But I think stats have their place. I rely on stats all the time, but when you fall in love with a horse like Hukum you can’t escape it.

    A winner over further, a tough a ready winner when he won the King George in July, he looks set for the race. He’s been kept fresh and this was the clear aim, in what could be his last race in his career. He might not go down as one of the greats, but if he wins he’ll certainly be popular.

    The very best of luck!