Best Of Bets

Tag: Mostahdaf

  • Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    It’s action from the North, the South and across the Atlantic this weekend as the Breeders’ Cup takes place in Santa Anita. A little further North, back home, it’s Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby with Bravemansgame making his reappearance alongside Ahoy Senor. Ascot also has a good handicap card to get stuck into too. A intriguing weekend for Four To Follow.

     

    Wetherby

    The Girls are alright with me

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    1:50 – Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) – Kateira @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    Kateira is still new to hurdles but is no longer a novice and comes into a tricky race, after finishing runner-up in a Grade One last April. But she loves to race fresh, with figures after a 50+ break reading 5112. She’s constantly on the upgrade and will love the soft ground up at Wetherby. Expect more progression from this horse throughout the season.

    Stainsby Girl represents the value in the race for me. An established front-runner, it’s her first foray into level weights. And she comes in with one of the highest marks in the field at 138, she’s not one to be dismissed. She’s a mud-lover and could be hard to peg back if she’s given some racing room in front. 7/1 (General) is a nice price.

     

    Drashing through the mud

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    2:25 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Dashel Drasher @ 9/4 (Betfred)

    Another tricky contest, but I’m surprised the 10-year-old isn’t favourite for the race. He has a consistent reappearance record, never finishing outside the top three, and loves soft ground. Thyme Hill is the one to oppose and comes back to hurdling after a season over fences didn’t work out.

    Dashel Drasher was ultra consistent last season, with four seconds, including narrowly losing to Sire Du Berlais in the stayers. I expect him to be favourite at the off.

     

    Ascot

    Mucho macho man

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    3:45 – Sodexo Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Mucho Mas @ 6/1 (General)

    Mucho Mas a progressive chaser for Ben Pauling having competed at the levels below Premier chases last season. But he was entered for the Sandown Gold Cup but was scratched due to the ground. This may be a big ask, but the ground is a big plus for him. A four-pound rise looks lenient given the missed end of season targets and can run a big race. He’s certain to feature in similar events throughout the season, nonetheless.

    A former winner of the race also puts forward an intriguing case. Larry won the 2021 edition off a mark of 132. This year it’s only 135 on soft ground. He also loves Ascot at this time of year with two wins over C&D in the last two years. Ground won’t be a problem, and can break the Moore’s poor run of form at 11/1 (General).

     

    Breeders’ Cup

    Rodin’ the wave

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    Santa Anita 9:50 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade One) – Auguste Rodin @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    It’s the race that he has been preparing for all season. His avoidance of a tilt at the Arc and the Champion Stakes made sure that this would be his destination. Auguste Rodin is ready to be the star of Tinseltown. It was a gutsy, yet impressive, win in the Irish Champion which puts him at the head of the market.

    King Of Steel was the big impresser at Ascot, but just how much did that race take out of him for him to be running two weeks later?

    Mostahdaf has the US media talking on his final start, but his best form comes over 10 furlongs. Can making it a fairytale end to his career?

    I think the dual Derby and Irish Champion has the race to lose, and add to Ballydoyle’s excellent Breeders’ Cup success.

    War Like Goddess is a peach of a price at 14/1 (William Hill), after finishing third in the contest last year. She won a Grade One at Belmont in some style to prep herself for her tilt to go two better this year.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Ebor Festival 2023 | Majestic Paddington sets sights on Juddmonte

    Ebor Festival 2023 | Majestic Paddington sets sights on Juddmonte

    As flat season approaches September, just two major festivals remain on the calendar, beginning with the Ebor Festival on Wednesday.

    The Knavesmire hosts three elite Group 1 contests this week and BestofBets are putting each one under the spotlight.

    Beginning with the Juddmonte International Stakes, can the majestic Paddington extend his unbeaten streak to eight?

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    Big draw

    Arguably the biggest race of the Ebor meeting before being skittled down to just four runners, the British Champions Series battle takes place over 1m2½f.

    This year’s Juddmonte is the smallest field since 2009, after Desert Crown was forced to drop out following yet another injury issue

    Paddington remains the marquee marvel.

    Now one of the most popular horses around, 2023, for the 3yo of Aidan O’Brien, has been nothing short of a sensation.

    Still some six months off turning four, Paddington already has four Group 1 victories to his name.

    Indeed, his last four wins have all been in elite company.

    Capped by Royal Ascot glory in the St. James’s Palace Stakes, Coolmore victory at the Curragh back in May almost seems a footnote.

    Ryan Moore would be entitled to feel more than a little smug, but might the extra half mile throw a spanner in the works?

     

    Crowley on the charge?

    Not since his debut run at Ascot some 11 months ago has Paddington been beaten. Many have come; many have trailed in the dust.

    So the question remains: Just when will Paddington’s monopolistic run come to end?

    The Juddmonte sees three more contenders take a shot at the king; Mostahdaf seems most likely to challenge.

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    A 10/1 surprise winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes in his last outing, Shadwell will be eyeing another huge scalp.

    The son of Frankel has 2/3 wins this term, and the mount of Jim Crowley was fourth in the Dubai Classic back in March.

    However, taking down the favourite at Royal Ascot, Luxembourg, was one thing, toppling Paddington is quite another.

     

    Gosden grit

    With just two other names in the frame, what of Hollie Doyle’s chances on Nashwa?

    Only one win has come the way of John and Thady Gosden’s 4yo, but if the weather plays ball and the ground remains good, Nashwa could put up.

    Storming back to the winner’s circle in the Falmouth Stakes at the July Festival, York could provide favourable turf.

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    The sole remaining contender of the Juddmonte is The Foxes, who whilst on outsider, won the Dante earlier this term.

    He also was runner-up in both the Craven and a previous outing at Belmont Park last time out.

    Oisin Murphy will have his work cut out, but don’t draw a line through this plucky Foxes’ Ebor chances.

     

    The Juddmonte International Stakes takes place on Wednesday 23 August, 15:35