Best Of Bets

Tag: john gosden

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day One

    What a Saturday for Four To Follow.

    Three winners, at big prices, it couldn’t have gone much better. It sets up a fantastic week for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival, a midsummer’s treat.

    Here are four to look out for from both sides of the Irish Sea.

     

    Goodwood

    Hot Hot Hot

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    3:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – Iberian @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Vintage Stakes is always throwing up some useful two-year-olds.

    Highland Reel, Expert Eye and Pinatubo have all won this race in recent years. But the best thing is not one outfit has dominated the race, which makes the betting heat wide open.

    I’ve chosen Iberian because I liked what I saw when he won on debut, travelling smartly to the two pole when everyone around him was being hurried, and looked very professional.

    Charlie Hills isn’t going well at the moment, but he seems to have a knack with his two-year-olds, who have delivered a £27.50 profit to a £1 stake. The horse itself is out of Lope De Vega, so shouldn’t have a problem getting the seven furlong trip.

     

    Keen On Ross

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    4:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 5/4 (General)

    I love Kinross. I loved him at the back-end of last season when he won three seven-furlong races on the spin. It is his true trip.

    He won the Lennox two years ago, fending off Creative Force by a neck, on soft ground. He then got chinned himself when losing to Sandrine last year on good ground.

    With the ground expected to be soft, and Frankie on board, I’m expecting another big performance from Kinross, and maybe we might see a repeat of last year’s feat.

     

    Don’t Rane On His Parade

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    4:35 – Goodwood Cup (Group One) – Coltrane @ 10/3 (Unibet)

    Courage Mon Amis was extremely impressive at Royal Ascot. Extremely impressive.

    He’s unbeaten and is ridden and trained by that familiar partnership of Dettori and Gosden. He’s also won at Goodwood this season in preparation for the Gold Cup.

    Why am I against him? Purely on experience and ground. He’s 4/4 and, like the Gold Cup, he’s up against some experienced rivals.

    Coltrane is his nearest challenger and just couldn’t produce over the 2m 4F trip last time out. This time it’s a fairer two-mile trip and Coltrane loves a bit of juice. It’s hard to know what the favourite likes as his two wins on turf have come on good-to-firm ground. Coltrane represents far better value, and can finally show off his Group One potential.

    To follow him in, I’m expecting Giavelloto to be up there. Marco Botti deliberately avoided the Gold Cup and has decided to come here. He’s versatile with the ground, so that’s not a problem and Andrea Atzeni is no jockey to be sniffed at, given his two wins on Stardivarius here.

    He won the Yorkshire Cup, which is always a good early season test, and that little loinger lay-off will have him in good nick for the contest. 14/1 (William Hill) is a perfect price.

     

    Galway

    A Nice Cup For Joe

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    6:40 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile (Premier H’cap) – Joe Masseria @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    The first big highlight of the Galway Festival is the mile handicap, which is 1m 123yds.

    Last year’s winner, Soaring Monarch is rightly at the top of the betting for being set up for this race again, but I’ve decided to go down a more active route.

    Joe Masseria is a soft ground specialist and a Galway C&D winner. He finished third on yielding ground, but that was after a break of the track since the early spring. It was a good set up for this race which looks tailor-made for him. Colin Keane is back on board, and he has a 2/3 record aboard him so looks set for another big performance.

    Gavin Cromwell has a runner in the race that looks as though he has been targeted since the end of the jumps season. Mister Wilson is a C&D winner and also loves the soft ground. A mark of 83 shouldn’t trouble him at all, after narrowly losing to twice winner of the Mile handicap Saltonstall, at Tipperary. He looks a big price at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    And it wouldn’t be an Irish premier handicap without a battalion of Adrian McGuinness’ taking up nearly half the field.

    Celtic Crown catches the eye with claimer James Ryan aboard, who has a 12% strike rate which isn’t bad for a jockey with a seven-pound allowance. That takes his mark down to 84, which is a big winning mark for after he won the Emerald Mile at the Curragh in 2022 off the same mark.

    Conditions might suit, although if the ground stays heavy on the West Coast of Ireland, be wary. Small stakes at 22/1 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow: Super Saturday

     

    It’s one of the busiest, craziest and most hectic days of the racing calendar. It’s Super Saturday. Newmarket, York, Ascot, even Chester, have big races on offer.

    Including the July Cup, Bunbury Cup and the John Smith’s Cup, it’s a punters’ paradise. Let’s take you through the three big meetings, and find the Best Bets.

     

    Newmarket

    Truth Be Told

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    15:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – Great Truth @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    This is one of the top two-year-old races of the season, and Godolphin have a great record in recent years. Native Trail and Master Of The Seas came from this race, and we all know what Native Trail did as a three-year-old. He has staying pedigree on both sides of his family, which won’t be a problem staying seven furlongs at two.

    On his debut, he was a little green at Leicester, but he won with plenty in hand, and you can’t discount a 5-and-a-half-length win. On past trends, and breeding, Great Truth has sold me.

     

    Two Blessed

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    16:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Bless Him @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Bless Him is now a nine-year-old, and has bucked the trends for this race as winners usually are between four and six. But he can still hack it at the top level, with an encouraging fifth in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. And he is only two pounds higher than his winning mark in last year’s race.

    It’s worth noting that Jamie Spencer is not riding on Saturday, so Callum Shepherd gets the leg up.

    Star Of Orion has been quite a consistent horse this season, with two seconds at the start of the season. But Ralph Beckett seems to have laid him out for this race, electing not to go to Royal Ascot, and keeps his handicap mark at 92. Which is six pounds lower than last season’s mark.

    He’s versatile on all grounds, and is good value each-way player at 12/1 (General)

     

    Little Too Big

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    16:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 4/1 (General)

    When the odds came out for the race, I was shocked that Little Big Bear was at 4/1.

    He got beat at Ascot, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad horse. He’s a super sprinter! In fact he does have a good omen on his side, most recent winners have come from the Commonwealth Cup, but they didn’t win it.

    Only Muhuraar has done the double, which doesn’t put Shaquille in a good spot. Plus the allowance that Little Big Bear is getting, puts him as the best rated horse in the race. For me, I wouldn’t be surprised if punters take advantage of this, and he’s backed down.

     

    York

    Saturday Spirit

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    15:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Spirit Dancer @ 9/1 (General)

    This year’s edition of the John Smith’s Cup is probably one of the best.

    Each horse has strong claims, but I’ve gone for a regular at York. Spirit Dancer has been in the top four for the past five races, and his rating has only gone up five pounds in that period. He loves the firm ground, although the weather may set in at the weekend, as heavy showers are forecast. But he is versatile, as he can run well on good-to-soft ground.

    Northern trainers always do well at York, particularly Richard Fahey, and he will have had this race in mind since he came fourth in last year’s renewal.

    I also like the chances of Millebosc, who makes his reappearance on the track after 227 days. Horses who have been off the track have won the past three renewals of this race, and Haggas will have set out this horse for the race.

    He’s only had one run in the UK, a fifth on the Lingfield all-weather. His record shows that his only win came on debut, but he did come third in a Prix du Jockey Club, behind St. Mark’s Basilica, so his Group  form could come through. 12/1 (General) is a respectable price.

     

    Ascot

    The Mighty Mighty

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    14:20 – Summer Mile (Group Two) – Mighty Ulysees @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    Another horse who has been laid off the track is Mighty Ulysees. He came ever so close in last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes, but didn’t kick on in his final two starts. Now he’s back, and he is rated as one of the best in the field, which must be taken note. He’s drawn wide, which shouldn’t be a problem for Robert Havlin. He can land another big Saturday winner for the Gosdens, who are operating at a 29% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day Two

     

    A disappointing Day One for Four To Follow, but we aim to make it up in the next two days, as TWO Group Ones’ rattle towards us. Here are my tips for Day Two at the July Festival.

     

    Newmarket

    Seen It, Did It

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    13:50 – bet365 Heritage Handicap – Seendid @ 15/2 (BetVictor, 10Bet)

    William Haggas and Tom Marquand are having a, somewhat, quiet season. But I feel they’ve laid this horse out perfectly for its big test. Seendid is by Dubawi and is out of a middle-distance mare, so has plenty of stamina. He also has crucial course and distance experience, after breaking his maiden on the July course at the back-end of June. He made all that day, but given that there are a few more horses to contest with, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marquand drops him in behind the leader and lead the rest home in the straight. He’s good value too at the top of the market.

    And don’t knock off Knockbrex for Charlie Johnston. His father Mark has an incredible record in the race, winning the race four times on the spin between 2013and 2016. He then won it in 2020 with Zabeel Champion. I’m sure Charlie will have heeded some advice from his father, and Knockbrex will not be without hope. Winning from the front can be done on the July course, ask Seendid. If he learns to settle, he’ll be a good each-way shout, especially with some past form behind Royal Ascot winner Gregory, at 10/1 (General)

     

    Dream of a Win

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    15:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Live Your Dream @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Live Your Dream has almost been a revelation since returning to the track. Placed twice, including a second at the Royal meeting, you feel he’ll be too much class for the field in this race. On pure ratings, he’s the only horse rated at 104 which is top weight. But class horses can defy the top weight, and he has been improving all the time. Today should be his day to shine.

    One at a better price is Ravens Ark. He’s a quite a consistent stayer, with two seconds to his name already this season. He seems to be versatile on all grounds, and a mark of 81 is only a pound higher than his previous winning one. It’s a bit of a disappointing ‘heritage handicap’, but Ravens Ark represents some value at 11/1 (General)

     

    Remarkable July

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    15:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Remarquee @ 4/1 (General)

    I’ve always viewed this race as a bit of a faux pas Group One. It hasn’t been won by the greats in recent times, and I can’t imagine we’ll see a great come out of this race either. But Remarquee does stand out to me. She was only a length behind Tahiyra at Ascot, which is a big result considering how the race panned out. She gets a nine pound allowance, which will be massively beneficial to her. Via Sistina is a good horse, but the ground will come into question. And it’ll be interesting to see Nashwa stepping down in trip for her reappearance, and I think the Gosdens will be looking to the Nassau, and this is just a prep race. That makes Remarquee the stand out for me.

     

    York

    Swinging In Summer

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    15:40 – Summer Stakes (Group Three) – Swingalong @ 15/8 (General)

    Swingalong is back at the scene of her last win, in the Lowther. York over six furlongs was a great match for Swingalong, and Karl Burke will know that. She is a high-class filly, and could easily turn into a top rated sprinter, given she also finished third in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot. And with 14 winners so far in July for Burke, this race could not come at a better time for an in-form stable. I’m surprised she’s odds against, frankly.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    After a Frankie Friday, it’s the big day on the Downs. Derby Day. It’s one of the most unpredictable yet. Arrest went into favouritism last night, but is he the one to win the big race? And who will win the the Dash? All those questions will be answered, as we take a look at four of the Best Bets on Derby Day.

    12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Kolasi @ 3/1

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    The aperitif to the Derby is the Diomed. And it doesn’t look the best of renewals, but Kolasi looks the best horse in the race. She is the only three-year-old, and is receiving a lot of weight from her rivals. Her form from four starts suggests that she’ll like the firm ground, and that she can handle undulation. There are plenty of unknowns and this is a step up in class. But the field, on paper at least, don’t look the best quality and are there for the taking.

    1:30 – BETFRED DERBY (GROUP ONE) – DUBAI MILE @ 18/1

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    The more I Iook at this horse, the more I think he’s overpriced. He’s a Group One winner as a two-year-old, beating Arrest by a head, and he’s versatile to the ground. On ratings, he’s only behind Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Charlie Johnston has been firing in the winners and has an excellent strike rate. Plus, Ahmad Al Shaikh, the owner, has had a decent record in the last three Derby’s, including Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal. His breeding suggests he’ll fall short of this trip, but Johnston horses always dig deep and can push further. The Dam’s sire was High Chapparal, so he does have some Epsom blood running though him. He has a decent draw in stall five, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I also like White Birch, for John Joseph Murphy. He lost by a neck to The Foxes at York and on the replay, he seems to be the one to take out of the race. Passenger looked to be staying on late, but didn’t seem to carry on much after the winning post. The Foxes looked to tough it out over the trip and not go much further. White Birch looks to be the one to take out. He’s by Ulysees, which means he will stay. His half-brother stays 1m 3F, which suggests he’ll get the trip. He’ll have to overcome a tricky-ish draw in stall two, but he looks to be one to watch at an each-way price of 12/1.

    Personally, I think the principles are hyped up. Auguste Rodin finished 12th of 14 in the Guineas. That’s the worst result of a Derby trial for any horse. How can he be deemed favourite? Favourites also have a terrible record in the Derby, in recent years. Aidan O’Brien can work miracles, but after such a disappointing run, he can’t be trusted. Arrest ran well at Chester, and he has the Frankie factor, but the ground is massively against him. John Gosden said Arrest will need a lot of rain overnight. He won’t get it.

    Which means by default, Military Order gets the nod. His stamina will be tested on firm ground, but he is a full brother to Adayar, and that points him in the right direction to win. But I think the ground might catch him out. He’ll certainly have a crack at the top three, so he gets in the tricast.

    Tricast: Dubai Mile, White Birch, Military Order

    2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Prosperous Voyage @ 11/8

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    Prosperous Voyage may not have returned well, but everything seems to be in her favour here. She relishes firm ground, she’s a course winner and the top-rated horse. She will have blown the cobwebs away at Newmarket and should be back to her best at Epsom and Frankie will make amends for Derby disappointment.

    3:20 – Epsom DASH (Heritage Handicap) – Clarendon House @ 15/2

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    It’s a little bit of a lottery the Epsom Dash, and it’s the same this year. But it seems the stars have aligned for this horse. Stall two has proven to be a good draw over the years, he’ll be right up with the pace, and has won five times on firm ground. The stable are starting to turn a corner with a winner last Friday and a second during the week, and Danny Muscutt may be riding on a high from his Derby heroics. If not, he’ll want to win this race. The form from the York dash played out last week, with Mondammej just beaten narrowly by Chipstead. It could work wonders here.

    Each-way plays are the way to go for the Dash, and Lihou is one of them. Middle to high draws are the favoured places to be, Lihou is drawn in 18. Plus, he is at an advantage, winning at C&D earlier this season at the Riband meeting. That was on soft ground, but he can perform on firmer. He’s also, only 2lbs higher than that win in April, and is running fresh off a narrow second at Goodwood. A good play at 12/1.

    Another play is Look Out Louis who has things in his favour over the flying five. In September, he won in similar conditions over the five furlongs at Haydock, and is only one pound higher than that winning mark. He looks to have blown the cobwebs away since the Chester run, and can be back to his best on the Downs, from a decent draw in six, at 12/1.

    The very best of luck on Derby Day!

    (And, Come On United for the FA Cup!!)

    All prices are from Betfred, proud sponsors of the Epsom Derby

  • Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    It’s the biggest two days of the flat season as the racing public descend on the Surrey Downs of Epsom. Day One sees two group ones, including the Betfred Oaks which could end up being the form race for the year. Here’s four of the Best Bets from Friday’s meeting.

    2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap – Fantastic Fox @ 6/1

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    Everything looks in his favour today. He should have his ground, he’s stepping down in trip back to his favoured mile, and he has a great jockey aboard to overcome a wide draw. His mark is five pounds lower than it was when he came third in last year’s race, and it’s a pound lower than his previous winning mark too. The only slight negative is that he is a Roger Varian horse, but the tide does look to be turning after he had a decent showing at Brighton on Tuesday. Fantastic Fox hasn’t won since he was a three-year-old, but he is due one, and this looks like the perfect race to break his duck.

    Austrian Theory is a good each-way price at 17/2, after his third at Chester last week. Charlie Johnston has a runner in the Derby and this could kick start a good week on the Downs for the Middleham trainer. Austrian Theory has had three runs already, but is stepping up to his best, after a good third at Chester, which could be a good prep for Epsom to handle the twists and turns. He’s on a good mark and the ground should be near perfect for him to challenge the top three.

    3:10 – DahlBury Coronation Cup (Group One) – Emily Upjohn @ 5/2

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    Emily Upjohn, should, be favourite. Both Westover and she handled Epsom really well, but Emily Upjohn was the one to take out of last year’s Oaks. She didn’t follow up in the King George at Ascot, but finished on a high last term. With a slight allowance it puts her on terms with Westover and Frankie is going to be fired up at his last Derby meeting. It’s a small field so an inside draw won’t matter too much, and she’s backable at the price she is.

    Little word on the outsider Tunnes, the German raider. His rating puts him on terms with Hurricane Lane, who has had a sketchy start to the season. Reading his form, he is a Group One German winner by 10 lengths. The ground may be a little firm, but surely his hat has to be thrown into the mix. Remember what happened with Torquator Tasso in the 2021 Arc?

    3:45 – Betfred Handicap – Marhba The Champ @ 9/2

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    William Buick takes the ride on the Kevin Ryan colt, and passes up the ride on Godolphin’s Honiton. He managed to fend off Marie’s Diamond at York, and has only been raised a lenient 2lbs. He holds a decent draw, and Ryan has put a tongue strap on him for the first timeHis performance at York was one of the best handicap performances of the week, and he can replicate it here too.

    Masekela has been thrown into this handicap, and seems to have been looked over. Fourth in last year’s Derby, handled the track well and his handicap rating has dropped below 100 for the first time. The ground will be in his favour and it’s a pairing we have seen before, Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. He will have to overcome a slight disadvantage with the draw, but it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. An each-way price of 11/1 isn’t bad either.

    4:30 – BETFRED OAKS (GROUP ONE) – RUNNING LION @ 11/2

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    Let’s start with the top two in the market. Savethelastdance was ultra-impressive at Chester, but what did she beat? None of the horses were bothered in catching her and she cantered to win by 22 lengths, in bottomless ground. It was the same ground for her maiden win at Leopardstown. She also lacks the experience for me. I don’t think three runs in a horses’ lifetime can prepare you enough for the challenge of Epsom.

    Soul Sister also falls into that category of lack of experience, although her win at York was better than Savethelastdances’ at Chester. She beat an experienced filly in Novakai and ran on well after the finish line. It’s also a question of how quickly can the horse be turned around, as York was only two weeks’ ago. The other thing is the breeding. She’s by Frankel, who as a sire, has only managed won Epsom Oaks winner out of the vast progeny he has had.

    This led me to Running Lion. Roaring Lion has a select but quality progeny, and has had a successful May in terms of winners. Running Lion won really well at Newmarket when we last saw her, but there is a question of stepping up in trip. But her pedigree shows that she is related to Cozone, who stayed two miles, and was out of Bella Nouf, which is Running Lion’s sire. This tells me there is staying power within the family, and she can prove it today. She has plenty of experience under her belt, and hasn’t been over-raced either. This has feels like a target for her and she can triumph over her stablemate, and the short-priced favourite.

    The very best of luck on Oaks Day!

    All prices are from Betfred, official sponsor of the Epsom Oaks and Derby