Best Of Bets

Tag: irish oaks

  • Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Another Group One meets us head on, with the Irish Oaks at The Curragh. Also it’s Newbury’s Super Sprint Day for speedy two-year-olds. And we’ve got action over the jumps too, with the Summer Plate from Market Rasen. We’re everywhere today on Four To Follow.

     

    Newbury

    Elite Sprinter

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    3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Elite Status @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Elite Status beat last year’s Super Sprint winner, Relief Rally, in his first start this season over C&D. However, I’ve always felt he would offer more at a higher level and was surprised not to see him head to Ascot. As a result his talent has just been given a cap and, with the three-year-old weight allowance, can display his talents again.

     

    A Viking Invasion

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    3:35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Vingegaard @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    It’s always a tough race to predict. A big field of two-year-olds who aren’t at the top level, often inexperienced and with different allotted weights. Looking at recent winners, you have to have broken your maiden and raced at Royal Ascot. Vingegaard won well on debut at Chepstow and finished an admirable fifth at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. He’s from a sprinter family so should have no trouble blazing a trail.

    Another little piece of form is Richard Hannon. He’s won this race four times in the last 10 years, which is an incredible strike rate. He only saddles one for this race, which perks interest. Despite Miss Collada not racing at Royal Ascot she has two wins and a place to her name. The form might not have worked out from her run at Salisbury, but performances suggest there’s a lot to come. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Market Rasen

    Boom Boom Boom

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    3:15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier) – Boombawn @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    A little reminder that the jumps season is not too far away with the Summer Plate, summer specialists are the ones to back. Boombawn loves to have his day in the sun. He’s only just started his career as a chaser, so it says a lot when Dan Skelton puts him into a big handicap. He remains on a mark of 135 and can come on from the run from his second last time out.

    If there’s one horse that will religiously turn up to this race, it’s two time winner Francky Du Berlais. He’s nine pounds lower than last year’s race, and eight pounds lower than his lowest winning mark in the race. Despite being an old boy, he’s been placed in his last two runs, so there’s still life in the old boy yet. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh

    Oh Happy Day

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    3:40 – Irish Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General)

    Only four wins in the last ten years for Aidan O’Brien might seem good at first, but with his records in Ireland far bigger than that, it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more. Content hasn’t been impressive, but the market took not when Ryan Moore decided to ride her instead of Port Fairy. However, a relation added to her form as half-sister Bedtime Story ripped the Chesham field apart. Content also has form from the Coronation Stakes and was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly a couple of weeks ago.

    Lava Stream was ultra-impressive and almost chased down Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale. Now she steps up to group one level and may be a little underestimated by the market. She’s from a middle-distance family and can go on all sorts of ground, so good ground at the Curragh will have her suited. The English flat horses always seem to pinch a prize over in Ireland and it could be Lava Stream’s day to do so. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Doing A Rain Dance

    Whilst Europe is baking, we’re stuck with typical British Summer rain. But that’s not all bad, as there are some cracking bets to be had on a subdued Saturday. Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh, whilst Newbury and Market Rasen are the focus in the UK. Here is this week’s four to follow.

     

    Newbury

    SHADWELL SHOW

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    15:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Ehraz @ 12/1 (General)

    Shadwell have had a great record in the race in recent times, winning four out of the last ten. Jim Crowley knows his way around a decent Shadwell sprinter, and has also won this race four times. Blinkers are on for the first time, which can be seen as a positive in a decent sized field like this. And a nice middle draw should also suit nicely. With the rain on its way, it ticks another box for Ehraz as his best record comes on ground worse than good to firm. For Lezoo backers, she doesn’t have a great record on ground worse than good-to-firm, which is a big concern for me.

     

    Market Rasen

    AN OLD FAVORUITE

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    15:15 – Summer Plate H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Francky Du Berlais @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    It’s great to see a bit of Summer jumps action at Market Rasen, and at Cartmel too, and it’s also great to see a familiar name in their premier race. Francky Du Berlais has won this race for the previous two years, and won a right ding-dong against La Domaniale last year. La Domaniale is up 12 pounds from last year’s nose-off, but has improved massively since then and is a fair mark. Whereas Francky hasn’t won since, and goes off a mark one pound higher than last year’s winning mark. But he loves the track, and seems to come into his own in the Summer months. It could be a legendary three-peat for a legendary horse.

    Keep an eye out for Killer Clown, who came third off the back of a wind operation for the Emma Lavelle team. He suits the profile of a Summer horse, preferring good ground throughout the Winter, and his mark of 138 will suit him, condiering he came second in the Greatwood Gold Cup off the same. A nice 12/1 shot (10Bet, BetUK)

     

    Curragh

    WILD WEATHER

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    14:35 – Scurry Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Hurricane Ivor @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    There are two good reason why I’ve gone with this horse. One is because of the name, keeping the theme of the weather. And the other is because of this horse’s record in the rain. It has won five races out of 13 on ground ranging between good-to-soft and heavy, which isn’t a bad strike rate for a sprinter. His previous two starts at the Curragh have reulted in a win and a third, before not taking to the ground in the Wokingham. The other thing is that he is off a workable mark of 99 and a nice inside draw in four. There are lot of positives to this horse, even with the weather.

    Another horse who likes the rain is Blairmayne. His last two starts have been on soft/heavy ground and have resulted in a win and a tight third. He sprung up the handicap from a mark of 82 to 89, but is back to a mark of 85 and Blairmayne can take full advantage. Wide draws, aren’t necessarily a bad thing at the Curragh either. 14/1 is a fair each-way shout (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

     

    DANCING IN THE RAIN

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    15:45 – IRISH OAKS (GROUP ONE) – SAVETHELASTDANCE @ EVENS (BetVictor)

    The simple fact is on her four starts, three of them have come on soft to heavy ground and she has won two of them. She won one of them at Chester by 22 lengths, she ran a great race despite finishing second to Soul Sister, who didn’t back up the form in the Grand Prix de Paris. She has everything in her favour, including three stablemates to guard her so she can waltz home and pick up Aidan O’Brien’s third classic of the season.

    Azazat could be worth a punt on the without market. She has also won on soft to heavy ground and wasn’t too far behind Savethelastdance at Leopardstown. She is by a Derby winner, so there is no worry about the trip and could have won the Munster Oaks if she wasn’t bumped at the finish by Rosscarberry. She’s tough and might get a place if she’s lucky. 14/1 (William Hill) is her best price outright.

    The very best of luck!

  • 14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    After the onslaught of Royal Ascot, the Irish Derby, and the Newmarket July Festival, this weekend looks like a comparatively calm few days.

    That being said, the Group 1 Irish Oaks is still a race to look forward to, and yet, this week’s The Top Three features three horses away from the feature event.

    Before we dive into those picks, here’s a quick look at the current P&L.

    Despite the near miss of Tower Of London and the win for Swingalong last week, a nine-point loss on Saturday has put us in the red by 8.9 points.

    With a big week needed, here is a look at my fancies from the Curragh, Newbury, and Market Rasen.

    3:00 Newbury – Lezoo @ 5/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    In an instance of deja vu from Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, LEZOO at 5/1 with William Hill is my big hope for the weekend.

    For my full reasoning on her chances, please click on the link to this week’s recent piece, but now with just one day to go, we can analyse how conditions may suit her.

    My worry on Wednesday was the idea of soft conditions, but with a lack of rain over the last 48 hours and just a few showers expected tomorrow, the surface at Newbury should be good racing ground.

    That will only benefit Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old filly and may even inconvenience a few others in the race.

    The closer I get to Saturday, the more I find it hard not to see her as the winner – though of her competitors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shartash outrun his odds at 14/1 – and hopefully, she can kick off the weekend positively.

    3:15 Market Rasen – Killer Clown @ 11/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    With the five places on offer at BetVictor for this year’s Summer Plate at Market Rasen, KILLER CLOWN at 11/1 looks like a good bet.

    Unlike Newbury, rain will hit the Lincolnshire track overnight and they could pick up another downpour on raceday tomorrow, so the ground might creep into some description of soft.

    Plenty of the 16 runners in the Summer Plate will want good, summer ground, however, any mention of soft in the going description should play into the hands of Emma Lavelle’s nine-year-old.

    Officially rated 138, two pounds below his last winning mark of March 2022, the lightly-raced Getaway gelding had a wind surgery before his staying-on third at Uttoxeter last time out.

    The age-old stereotype of ‘second run after a wind op’ will be on his side tomorrow and, now he is seemingly well-handicapped, I think he should be feared in the 3:15 at Market Rasen and he is my main Summer Plate bet.

    4:20 Curragh – Rosscarbery @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, over the water at the Curragh, the race directly after the Irish Oaks is the Group 2 International Curragh Cup and ROSSCARBERY will carry my money.

    The favourite in the race is Emily Dickinson, and although she is obviously a good horse, I’m struggling to work out why this is the case.

    Paddy Twomey’s mare by Sea The Stars has faced the Dubawi filly twice in 13 months and has had the beating of her every single time.

    The first of which was at Leopardstown in the Group 3 Stanerra Stakes where she gave 17 pounds away and beat her by a short head, and the second came in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where she finished fifth behind Emily Upjohn, half-a-length ahead of Emily Dickinson while giving six pounds away.

    That level of form reads well and although rain will hit the Curragh on Saturday, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old loves, Rosscarbery doesn’t mind the mud.

    Off level weights tomorrow and in receipt of weight from a few of the geldings in the race, my faith is with the second-favourite Rosscarbery under Billy Lee.

  • 14/1 Irish Oaks Weekend Pick – Ante-post Analysis

    I think it’s fair to say that we have two horses to really look forward to following the Newmarket July Festival.

    With City Of Troy and Shaquille, Flat racing eagerly awaits both of their next moves because right now, there are two promising stars in two different divisions at two different ages. What a brilliant sight.

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    Therefore, to walk out of last week with this marks a good time for horse racing, irrespective of backing winners or losers.

    Now, with that covered, the Irish Oaks takes centre stage this weekend from the Curragh, but away from there, it is two horses running in the UK that have grabbed my attention for this week’s ante-post analysis.

     

    Return of Lanfranco

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    Frankie Dettori is set to leave the sidelines this weekend as horse racing’s most famous jockey is back in the saddle at Newbury Racecourse, and at 4/1 with William Hill, LEZOO is an interesting betting angle into the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at 3:00.

    Firstly, she is the second-highest rated horse in the race with just Garrus one pound ahead of her, however, she receives 11 pounds from Charlie Hills’ runner and Tiber Flow, eight pounds from Curragh winner Commanche Falls, and six pounds from fellow three-year-old Cold Case.

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    That puts her clear at the weights by a good margin, partly due to being a three-year-old filly as well as being without the hindrance of a penalty in the race, something that is different for Cold Case as he shoulders a three-pound penalty for winning a Group 3 in May.

    Furthermore, a look back at her two-year-old form, specifically that Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes where she beat Mawj, Meditate, and Swingalong, reads extremely well in this Group 3 setting who are yet to break it onto the Group 1 stage.

    Hopefully, this Zoustar filly can give the returning Dettori a win this weekend in what is her easiest test of the last 12 months.

     

    Long live summer jumping

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    This weekend marks one of the feature events of the summer jump racing calendar, Market Rasen’s Summer Plate Day.

    Despite the competitiveness of the feature event, it is the race directly before that has piqued my interest, however, as LUTTRELL LAD at 16/1 with BetVictor is an interesting runner in the two-mile handicap hurdle.

    Trained by Tom Lacey and ridden by stable jockey Stan Sheppard, the seven-year-old’s first run of this year occurred at Kelso in March before his defeat by only seven lengths in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 133.

    Fast-forward to this weekend and following three runs since jump racing’s Olympics, his rating is officially 123, a full 10 pounds below his mark in March.

    That is a big swing in the weights for a horse who was finishing close to the likes of Pied Piper, Filey Bay, Sharjah, Ballyadam, and Highway One O Two.

    Furthermore, this weekend’s conditions could suit him better than others in the field as the ground could be riding on the softer side of good, something he has previous form with.

    At 16/1, I’d be willing to take a chance that he can still run to his County Hurdle ability off a very lenient mark.