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  • Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Day two at the Chester May Festival was a crossbar-hitting day as Witness Stand recovered EW money when second to Never So Brave but Bracken’s Laugh couldn’t reel in Capulet in the Dee Stakes.

    Still, the EW return from Witness Stands’ 18/1 price covered the outlay from the rest of the day by 0.5pts, so let’s roll into the final day of the Chester May Festival.

     

    1:30 Chester – Boardman @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest, Boardman is trying to win this race for the first time having finished fifth in the last two renewals.

    Although stall 10 does hinder his chances slightly, the last two renewals occurred on soft and good-to-soft ground, so today’s better ground is a benefit to the eight-year-old by Kingman.

    Down to a mark of 94, he is three pounds below his last winning mark (which came over course and distance) and one pound below his last winning before then (which also came over course and distance).

    Furthermore, this is the time of year to catch him (seven from nine in the month of May) and he’s had a preparation run at Haydock on ground too soft for him to put in a solid effort.

    Jockey Phil Dennis guided him to his last success and he returns to the saddle, so he has a few things in his favour to put in a solid showing here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Mashhoor @ 10/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Although Hamish is an absentee from the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, the contest is a wide-open betting heat and Mashhoor stands out to me at 10/1.

    Johnny Murtagh’s six-year-old by Kingman hasn’t had the easiest career to date as he was late onto the scene as a two-year-old and has only raced 15 times for his age, but he seems as good as ever.

    He won three races on the bounce last season, though the most notable win came in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh where he beat Al Riffa by nearly five lengths while giving five pounds away.

    Although that was Al Riffa’s first start of the season, the runner-up ran into Ace Impact – the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner – in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano and then finished a close fourth on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Prix Ganay last month.

    After that, Mashhoor went to the Group 2 York Stakes and ran well to finish fifth of five, though only four lengths covered the field and both Alflaila and Royal Champion franked the form in Group/Grade 1 races subsequently.

    Although he finished sixth in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on his last start of the season, it was his first try at 1m4f and he did the donkey work from the front, so it’s easy to forgive him for that.

    With a run under his belt, Murtagh has probably brought him over to Chester for a reason and he holds an entry for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

    If he navigates stall eight well (he’s a natural front-runner, so he could well do this easily), he can outrun his odds.

     

    3:40 Chester – Too Friendly @ 12/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Spirit Mixer @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW both

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    In the Chester Cup, two horses have caught my attention, the first of which is Too Friendly for James Owen.

    Although the majority of his last runs have occurred over obstacles, that doesn’t hinder his chances as Metier won this race last year and he had a similar profile.

    As for Too Friendly, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 having won snugly at Kempton two starts ago, though his form over jumps shows he is clearly a good horse.

    As a juvenile, he was fifth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle behind Brazil and Gaelic Warrior and this season he finished just under three lengths behind Rubaud in a Listed hurdle over two miles.

    Rubaud ran into both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth after that, so the form looks strong.

    His profile is an interesting one, though so is the profile of Spirit Mixer for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

    By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, he finished second to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate in 2022 off a mark of 97, so his rating of 94 (and Callum Hutchinson’s three-pound claim) make him well-handicapped here.

    He’s had a few issues during his career, but a return to better ground will help and one can imagine this had been a plan.

     

    4:50 Chester – Chillhi @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    In the penultimate race, Chillhi has plenty in his favour at a course he has previous form at.

    The four-year-old had a decent juvenile season in 2022 as he won snugly twice and then ran in the hot £100,000 British EBF 2YO Series Final in October 2022.

    That race produced Streets Of Gold (rated 105), Legend Of Xanadu (rated 98), and Shouldvebeenaring (rated 112).

    As for his three-year-old season, his luck ran out, but most of his runs occurred in Class 3 and Class 2 contests, so today’s Class 4 assignment will be a welcome drop in grade.

    The one time he did contest a Class 4 came over the same course and distance as today from stall six; he made up plenty of ground that day, so the task of stall one is welcomed.

    Finally, his current rating of 78 is eight pounds lower than that day and William Pyle takes off three pounds, making him well-handicapped.

  • Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    A tricky day, with selections hitting the bar. But Point Lonsdale managed to salvage something from the day. Today, it’s Chester’s big day with the Chester Cup taking centre stage. Some names may be familiar from the jumps who make their way over for one of the longest races of the flat season. Plus a good undercard to make a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Dreaming Of Wins

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Of Grosvenor Handicap – Liamarty Dreams @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Liamarty Dreams is looking to make it a hat-trick in this race. He won at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, then at Musselburgh after been raised four pounds. It’s the same amount today and looks to be on the big improve this season. Stall two over the seven-and-a-half furlongs makes him all the more appealing for a yard in decent form.

    Revich won this race last year and has a great record on the Roodee. Four wins at the track makes him one of the specialists in the field. He’s back to a mark of 95, a winning mark up at Ayr last season. Plus, a middle draw isn’t the worst thing in the world and can bounce back to form after two lacklustre season openers. 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Island Native is a debutant at Chester, but he should be able to handle the tight turns with wins on the all-weather, including Lingfield. He showed a good performance on turf at Brighton last time out. But he’s climbing up three classes for this race, which is a nagging doubt. But the king of Chester, Franny Norton, will be able to guide him round his favourite track. Worth something at 12/1 (General).

     

    May Flowers

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    2:35 – Free Bet Friday Handicap – Botanical @ 7/2 (William Hill)

    Already the form for Botanical has been given an almighty boost. Mr Porfessor went and won the Lincoln this year, but was beat by Botanical by six lengths on his last start of the season. Given that Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian are a red hot classic winning combination, it would make sense to go with what seems to be the second Al Maktoum runner in the race.

     

    It’s Rar Rar

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    3:05 – Huxley Stakes (Group Two) – Israr @ 11/4 (General)

    You can’t argue when you have good ground and the highest rated horse in a race. Israr ticks all the boxes, and comes off the back of a close third at Sandown last time out. He beat former Derby winner Adayar last year at this level at the Newmarket July Festival and has had a decent winter over in the Middle East as well. At the price, it makes sense.

     

    A Ztuck Cup

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    3:40 – Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Zoffee @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    After one appearance in the Chester Cup, Zoffee seemed to be at home with the Roodee. He didn’t act for the rest of the season and comes back here three pounds lower than last season. At a track he seems to like and on a lower mark, plus a tendency to act at this time out the year, Zoffee is my main pick for the Chester Cup.

    Another course specialist who should handle the Cup well is Solent Gateway. He’s raced a few times and only won once, but experience counts round here. He last raced in the Cup off a mark of 90 and is two pounds higher today. Saffie Osborne is in the saddle which is always a big plus, given that she’s operating at a 22% strike rate. An added bonus of being a pound well in the handicap makes 14/1 (General) quite attractive.

    Too Friendly has a shot at a big price. Trainer James Owen says that the track should suit him and acts more in the Summer than he does in the Winter over jumps. He won on the all-weather in March and is only up four pounds for the run, which sees him at one of the lower weights in the field. Small stakes at 20/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Yesterday, there wasn’t much point to get stuck into, in terms of both quality and value, but we saw some terrific finishes. Today is much more competitive with some nice-looking handicaps, as well as a tricky Ormonde Stakes as the feature.

     

    Fire In The Belly

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Handicap – Roman Dragon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    A quick race to get us started with, and, as ever, draw is key. But course specialists are also a key factor, and Roman Dragon knows the Roodee better than any horse in the field. He’s raced round the round track 15 times, winning five times. He’s won from multiple positions, including outside stalls, but he’s in stall one today. Also, recent form in Bahrain has seen his mark gone up four pounds, but he’s an improver for the local Hugo Palmer yard.

    In the last ten years, this race has been won out of only three stalls; 1, 3, 4. Clearpoint fills stall number four, and looks nicely handicapped. He was dropped a pound for finishing fourth at Epsom last time out, which puts him on the same mark for a close third at Lingfield. The three pounds that William Craver takes off also brings him down to a recent winning mark. Nice each-way value at 8/1 (Betfred).

    Michaela’s Boy looks to put right so many wrongs. He hasn’t won since December 2022, and came close at the Curragh last Summer. He’s been dropped a massive four pounds from his last start at Musselburgh and his new weight makes him look appealing in the market. 12/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Rash To Judgement

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    2:05 – British Stallion Studs Maiden Stakes – Rashabar @ 3/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    This horse’s form is gold dust. Rashbar finished third at Newbury, but ahead of him the second won next time out at Bath. He also beat a winner at Salisbury and a neck second at Newmarket. With three winners in the field, it should only be a matter of time before he goes odds-on. Despite drawn wide, this is about the talent of the two-year-olds, so draw isn’t as important as it is in handicaps.

     

    When God Closes a Door…

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    3:05 – Dee Stakes (Listed) – God’s Window @ 9/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    The Dee Stakes is the lesser-known Derby trial. It hasn’t produced a Derby winner recently, but nearly did with Cliffs Of Moher in 2017. It did produce multiple Grade One winning hurdler Not So Sleepy, so it’s got some depth.

    God’s Window is the highest rated horse out of the lot and was an eight-and-a-half length winner at Nottingham on reappearance. Jayarebe has his form boosted by both Whip Cracker and Caviar Heights. But God’s Window has entries in three big Group One’s, including the Derby and the Eclipse. This is the litmus test for his season.

     

    Lonsdale Has A Point

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    3:40 – Ormonde Stakes (Group Three) – Point Lonsdale @ 9/4 (Boylesports)

    Point Lonsdale is often looked over as a forgotten horse, but he can act when he is brought to his level. He didn’t win at all over the Winter, which blots his copybook. But a big tick in his book is that he won the Huxley Stakes last year, so he knows the course. Combined with the fact he is the highest-rated horse in the field, and Arrest was deeply disappointing on reappearance, the door might just be shown for Point Lonsdale.

  • Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Action on the Roodee kicked off yesterday, though day 1 at the Chester May Festival ended with sadness after the awful incident involving Hidden Law after the line in the Chester Vase.

    For many, as the Dubawi three-year-old kicked clear from Aidan O’Brien’s Agenda, we looked at his performance and gave him plenty of credit for the effort.

    After all, he was very good at Newbury, it was just whether he could step up to a better grade and transform his form.

    Well, he did, so it was incredibly sad what happened to him moments after the line, and all we can do is give our best wishes to those closely connected to the horse.

    Just a quick line on yesterday’s results from the column; Al Shabab Storm returned place money at 7/1 (though he was unlucky not to win) and Cadogan Place finished fifth of sixth in the Chester Vase.

     

    2:35 Chester – Witness Stand @ 18/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Kicking off the action in the third race of the day, Witness Stand can outrun his odds back at a course he knows well.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye won a maiden on debut at the course from stall six of seven before he went straight into Group 2 company for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

    He did the donkey work that day, but still ran with credit to finish sixth in a race won by Haatem (subsequently 3rd in the 2000 Guineas). Iberian, Mountain Bear, and Son also franked the form subsequently.

    Having finished third on heavy ground behind Orne at Newmarket to finish the season, he blew off the cobwebs at Kempton when fifth to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) at the start of last month, something that will put him spot on for this.

    Going from Group and top-class company to a Class 2 0-105 will benefit Witness Stand, so he has a good chance to put in a display here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Bracken’s Laugh @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Something about the performance of Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford in April caught my eye, and I’m hoping he continues that progress here at Chester.

    The three-year-old by Zoffany has a strong pedigree behind him as he is from the family of Getaway and Guadalupe, a Group 1-winning mare.

    As for his Chelmsford success, although Capulet probably needed the run and could outrun his odds on Thursday, he beat a race-fit Orne who was sporting first-time cheekpieces.

    The top three in the market deserve plenty of respect, but Bracken’s Laugh gets the nod as his class has the ability to prevail.

     

    4:10 Chester – Dream Harder @ 8/1 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The form of the Ian Williams stable is moderate at the moment (13% strike rate over the last two weeks) which offers extra confidence behind Dream Harder’s chances in the penultimate race.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is highly tried but he also knows how to win having found the winners’ enclosure five times in his last 16 runs since switching to Williams from Jamie Osborne.

    One of those successes came at Chester off a mark of 85, just three pounds below his current rating, and his win that day looked easy at the line.

    Since then, he finished fourth in a Windsor Racing League handicap, a race won by Spirit Dancer, who subsequently won the Bahrain International Trophy and Neom Turf Cup.

    Furthermore, Tiffany (now rated 15lbs higher having won a Listed race in Hanover) and Tregony (a subsequent Listed winner now rated 15lbs higher) filled out the two places ahead of him, and Dream Harder had a troubled passage through the race that day. Even the fifth, Teumessias Fox, won a handicap on his next start.

    As for this season, he finished a staying-on third behind Intinso – an eye-catcher on his latest start in a £100,000 Newmarket handicap – at Wolverhampton before bombing out at Kempton on his last start.

    If you can forgive his last run, he looks to have a solid chance on paper and Jim Crowley gets the leg up.

  • Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    The Flat season is now well into gear following Punchestown and the Guineas last weekend, and the first day of the Chester May Festival is a good way to mark this changing of the guard.

    After a good amount of time spent talking about three-mile chasers (which is my passion) through the winter, my inner Flat brain is eager to see some rapid sprinters and Classic contenders.

    Chester is a tough place to bet due to the nature of the course, so the volume of fancies through this week won’t match that of the Punchestown Festival from last week.

    Speaking of the final big jumps meeting of the year, this column struggled to kick into gear over the first few days, but a helping hand from Minella Crooner on the final day pushed last week’s P&L to 18.5pts in profit. The overall P&L is slightly lower at 10pts.

    Considering the recent form over the last few months, a positive number in the P&L column is a welcome sight, so let’s not give it all back.

     

    1:30 Chester – Al Shabab Storm @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting with the opener, the Andrew Balding team have hit the ground running this Flat season (23% strike rate over the last two weeks) and that form can continue with Al Shabab Storm.

    The one negative against his name is stall 10, but his form is well above a few in here and he can make use of that if he gets a nice early position under Oisin Murphy.

    The three-year-old by Advertise debuted at Leicester in September 2023, but his best run of the month came 17 days later on much quicker ground at Newmarket when he ran into Accumulate.

    He hung left that day in the closing stages which allowed Accumulate to win, though the form of that race has worked out well as the winner won at Lingfield on his next start and the third, Native Warrior, ran into the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in April 2024.

    After that, he ran a good race on heavy ground at Doncaster when fourth behind Ballymount Boy, a good yardstick thanks to his form with Vandeek.

    Back to six furlongs is a positive, though his starting gate is the only worry.

     

    3:40 Chester – Cadogan Place @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Chester Vase is an interesting puzzle to decipher, but the 15/2 price of Cadogan Place is one of great interest.

    The Frankel two-year-old started his career with a victory over Hidden Law at Southwell in late March, and although he got the first run over Godolphin’s Dubawi colt, the ease at which Oisin Murphy travelled through the race was eye-catching.

    On paper, that form looks strong as the runner-up bolted up at Newbury on his next start and is the 5/2 second-favourite in this field.

    After all, that was his first run and it was on the all-weather, so he is entitled to come on for it now on the turf.

    He was well-backed on the day, which is an interesting fact, and he is a full brother to Quadrilateral, the 2017 Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner who was also third to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas.

    Considering all of this, I’m happy to chance him at 15/2.

  • Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    After a fantastic Ebor week, we’re back to normal Saturday racing. But there is some fantastic betting heats, including the Beverley Bullet and the tricky Atalanta Stakes. Plus there’s a decent looking two-year-old race at Sandown too. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Aheredia of the game

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    2:25 – Atalanta Stakes (Group Three) – Heredia @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Atalanta Stake is often a hard race to decipher. There have been three double-priced winners in the last four runnings. Another stat of the race is that only one five-year-old has won this race in its history (Lady Bear in 2003). There has, also, never been a dual winner of the race.

    This draws me to Heredia, who is making the step up to Group Three level for the first time in a year. She’s been very consistent, with two seconds and a convincing win last time out. Her ability to go on all kinds of ground shows that it won’t be a problem, but an outside draw may cause a small issue. But held up off the pace, she could make a late burst up the hill late on.

     

    Written in the stars?

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    3:38 – Solario Stakes (Group Three) – Starlore @ 2/1 (General)

    Breeding suggests that Starlore will win this race, as his sire Kingman did back in 2013. And plenty of favourites have won this and gone on to better things. Masar and Too Darn Hot are probably the most notable out of the last ten years, as well as Kingman.

    But Starlore may possess star quality. It might not have been a convincing debut when idling at the finish to hold on by a nose, but the form from that race has worked out, Arabian Crown in particular stands out. With a small field, and the best jockey on board (Ryan Moore), he seems a little overprices at 2/1.

    And talking of Starlore’s debut, Devil’s Point also franked the form when winning next time out at Ffos Las in convincing fashion. On debut, he only finished within one-and-a-half lengths of the winner and might not be far behind here at 11/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Beverley

    A rocket for the Bullet

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    2:40 – William Hill Beverley Bullet (Listed) – Apollo One @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred)

    Apollo One has had a quiet, yet consistent season. Four runs and four places, that isn’t bad form considering they were all in Class 2/Heritage Handicaps. But ground versatile, and with an ideal draw in stall two there may be nothing to stop this rocket finally grabbing a much needed win.

    But spare a thought for Tis Marvellous, the dual winner of the famous race. It could be the swansong for the legend of the Westwood and what a way it would be to bow out. He’s won from stall six before, and he may have the upper hand in what looks a tactical race. 7/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

     

    Chester

    Flying to the front

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    3:20 – Chester Stakes (Listed) – Lone Eagle @ 100/30 (General)

    Lone Eagle’s best performance this season came over this C&D back in May. He finished behind Hamish, and hasn’t looked anything like that day in May since. It may be because he caught the Group One bug, disappointing in both the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

    He’s tumbled down to Listed level, which should be his bread and butter, and Ralph Beckett will want to keep his winning streak in the race going landing the last two editions on the Roodee.

    Military Order hasn’t raced since the Derby, but a hike up in distance around a tricky track like Chester doesn’t fill me with confidence. And finishing last in the Derby speaks volumes that he didn’t like the track, and Chester is often a good trial to deal with the bends.

    The very best of luck!