Best Of Bets

Tag: scottish grand national

  • Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Three Nationals on the bounce, from Ireland to Aintree and now Ayr. It’s all gearing up to be a fantastic seven days in the trainers’ championship, with Willie Mullins going all out to win the title after success in Liverpool. But now we’re in the seasonal period where the jumps criss-crosses with the flat, so we’re treated to two cracking cards today. Let’s see who makes the cut.

     

    Ayr

    Fortune In Our Favour

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    2:25 – Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade Two) – Favour And Fortune @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

    Favour And Fortune was last seen finishing sixth in the Supreme at Cheltenham, a race which was been boosted heavily thanks to a one-two from Mystical Power and Firefox at Aintree. Favour And Fortune also finished second in a Grade One at Aintree back on Boxing Day. However, he’ll like the ground and is weighted fairly, alongside the Pertemps winner L’Eau Du Sud. He’s got something’s in his favour in a hot contest.

    With it being a limited handicap, some at a bigger price may make appeal. Afadil is one. A consistent performer for Paul Nicholls, he easily won the Scottish County Hurdle in February. The he finished fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and was third last week at Aintree. He remains on the same mark and as a result, comes to Ayr in the lower order of the weights. Nice each-way play, 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

    Petit Tonnerre has been going chasing this season but didn’t work out for him and was hastily put over hurdles in the County, finishing one from the rear. For that performance, he’s been dropped four pounds, three pounds below his last winning hurdles mark. He was placed at this level last season and has every right to turn around a sharp drop. 20/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

     

    Git Making Us Rich

    3:35 – Scottish Grand National (Premier Handicap) – Git Maker @ 7/1 (General)

    Jamie Snowden has been actively prepping Git Maker for Ayr’s premier race. A stayer of some quality, he completed a hattrick of wins at the start of the season. He bounced back to form at the Festival when eight lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin, who impressed at Aintree, boosting the form. He also is unbeaten in Spring, with just two start in April and May, so will go well at this time year.

    My Silver Lining has been nothing short of impressive this season, never dropping outside the top three finish. Since his win at Warwick, he’s produced two gutsy performances on testing ground in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and in the Midlands Grand National. The Midlands National is often a precursor to this race and has only been raised two pounds. Ultra consistent, he shouldn’t be too far away from the frame. Each-way at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Ontheropes makes a little appeal for me. He hasn’t had a great time coming back from a long break, pulling up twice and finishing midfield last time out. However, he has dropped to a mark of 141 which was his last winning mark back in the 2021 Munster National. A lot has happened since then, but he is a proven stayer with a fourth in the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy (now Coral Gold Cup) to back it up. Ayr could be the track where we see him at his best. He might not look to have a chance, but never write off any Mullins horse. Long-shot at 50/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Call Up The Army

    2:40 – Greenham Stakes (Group Two) – Army Ethos @ 15/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being bred by sprinters; Army Ethos did look as though he could go a bit further when finishing second in the Coventry at Ascot. Trainer Archie Watson had big hopes, with the Prix Morny or Prix Robert-Papin in his sights. Sadly, we didn’t see him again until he finished a little weaker than most though up at Newcastle. But the Coventry form is looking brilliant now, with Haatem winning the Craven, who Army Ethos beat. Everything points to improvement with this horse.

     

    A Winning Ticket

    Spring Cup Handicap – Thunder Ball @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    A trend with Thunder Ball is that he seems to go well after his first run after a break. And that’s what today is. After a decent enough finish in the Lincoln, he looks to go a bit better on good-to-soft ground, which he likes. He stays at his mark of 101, with Alec Voikhansky taking off five pounds. He improved a lot last season and will make a nice handicapper throughout this season.

    Racingbreaks Ryder is another who goes well in the Spring with his only win of the season last year coming in May. He then never impressed in any other handicaps, but is now down to a likeable mark. He’s only one above last year’s winning mark, which makes him appealing at 18/1 (BetUK).

    Alpha Crucis is another that goes well at the start of the season. A winner at Windsor last April saw her book end it with a win at Goodwood in October. She had a good run in the Lincoln, finishing fourth which the handicapper has dropped her a pound for. He comes into this race at the very bottom of the weights, further enhanced with Anna Gibson taking a further seven pounds off. Every right to run well at 22/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four to Follow Scottish National Tips

    Four to Follow Scottish National Tips

    After a successful Saturday, and a profitable Aintree, the action turns to Ayr for the third National in less than two weeks. All eyes are on the Scottish National, and I’ve four horses on the card to watch for.

    1:15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase – Return Ticket @ 7/1 (Betfred, BetVictor)

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    Always a good little contest and I’m looking for the value in the race. Frere D’Armes looks to be a deserved favourite, improving all the time in the season, but the price he has is far too short to side with him. Instead I’m going with Return Ticket at 7/1, who won the contest last year. He was off a mark of 137 last year and is a pound lower this time around. Conditions will suit and can provide some stiff competition to the short-priced favourite.

    2:25 – Scottish Champion Hurdle – Soaring Glory @ 11/2 (General)

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    A competitive contest, made more competitive thanks to it being a limited handicap. Colonel Mustard is the favourite, but he can be taken on due the handicap nature of the race. Soaring Glory doesn’t look fantastic on recent form, but his last winning mark was 143. He had a good run in the 2022 Betfair Hurdle, and has raced only twice since. The mark should pay dividends and conditions won’t be a problem. Milkwood, who won the 2021 edition, is 4lbs lower than her win in this race and presents the each-way value.

    3:00 – Future Champion Novices’ Chase – Balco Coastal @ 9/4 (William Hill)

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    Balco Coastal has been there or thereabouts this season, but the form from the Scilly Isles has, just about, worked out. The Grade One hopes haven’t worked out, so this seems to be more to his level Three pounds better than the next best at 150, he’s the one to beat. Telmesomethinggirl, for me, is overpriced with her weight allowance. She’s used to racing against other mares, but may just sneak into the placings ahead of Thunder Rock.

    3:35 – SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – Your Own Story @ 7/1 (General)

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    Monbeg Genius and Kitty’s Light have been fancied for this race for a long time, but I think they can be opposed. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox won the Grand National last week, and I fancy them to do the double with Your Own Story. Marathon runners are the ones to side with, and Your Own Story loves a big trip. Won a marathon race at Wetherby, and nearly won one at Haydock last time out. The handicapper has been kind raising him 4lbs, and makes him very light in the weights. He’s the one for me at 7/1.

    Manothepeople for Fergal O’Brien, who’s had a stellar season, is also one who’s been hammered in. Was around 25/1 in the week, has halved in price to 12/1 generally. He’s had a great novice season, and looks to be a marathon runner for the future. I’ve seen his two wins at Chepstow in person, and he was very eye-catching. The weight makes him appealing to back, and there’s 14/1 prices available, with BetUK.

    Half Shot could do something at a massive price. The race that catches the eye was his run at Kelso last month, finishing a head behind Bill Baxter. Bill Baxter franked the form at Aintree, the third has finished second and won on its next two starts. Fourth finished second next time out, and the fifth won on her next start. And Half Shot finished second in his next race, but was 8-and-a-half-lengths clear of the rest. His mark may have inflated, but he could deliver some good prize money for a yard who have had a terrible time of late. 50/1, with Betfred, is worth a small each-way tickle.

    The very best of luck!

  • 2023 Coral Scottish Grand National: BestBets at Ayr

    2023 Coral Scottish Grand National: BestBets at Ayr

    As National Hunt season winds down, April still has two main acts to play.

    Before the Punchestown Festival begins on Tuesday with five days of Class 1 evening racing in County Kildare, Saturday sees the third National of the month.

    Just as I Am Maximus at Fairyhouse and Corach Rambler rode to victory last weekend at Aintree, Saturday sees Ayr’s turn in the spotlight for the Coral Scottish Grand National.

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    With three fences (27) and 2f less (4m) than its Merseyside sister race, the Scottish National was last year claimed by Rob James on board 13/2 Win My Wings at a canter.

    With 23 runners currently pencilled in for the weekend, who might be prominent in Western Scotland for the £112,000 prize?

    Here are our picks.

     

    Your Own Story

    J: Derek Fox, T: Lucinda Russell

    A narrative dream, could Derek Fox and Lucinda Russell complete a unique National tale with Your Own Story?

    The team who saw Corach Rambler storm to Randox Grand National glory, the duo will buoyant of their chances north of the border.

    Even so, the last horse to win both Scottish and Grand Nationals was Earth Summit in 1994 and victory for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ ride win was a platform to his Aintree win four years later.

    Twiston-Davies was also the last trainer to win both races and has won at Ayr three times – most recently in 2009 with Hello Bud.

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    Here, Lucinda Russell could win her second after Mighty Thunder in 2021.

    Your Own Story has been runner-up four times in seven runs this term, with a winner in last month’s Long Distance Wetherby Handicap.

    With three runs at Ayr to date, a third, fifth and most recently second in the Marlene McPherson, the 7yo is ready to step up.

    Looking to write his own script, Your Own Story is currently 8/1 across the board.

     

    Flash Collonges

    J: Harry Cobden, T: Paul Nicholls

    Well it wasn’t quite Harry Cobden‘s day at Aintree, but could he fare better on board Flash Collonges?

    Having travelled well on Coko Beach last weekend for 3m of the Grand National, Gordon Elliott’s fancied 28/1 8yo was eventually pulled up at the penultimate fence.

    After a superb National Hunt campaign, it feels like Cobden needs one final marquee win to cap his season off and it could come at Ayr.

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    For a trainer in Paul Nicholls who won this race back-to-back in 2017 and 2018 with Vicente – only the third horse to have done so in post-war times – the Gloucestershire native also knows how to come out on top.

    The 8yo of the Gi-Gi Syndicate won last time out at Newbury and his other more recent form reads third and two runners-up spots at Exeter and Chepstow.

    A gelding who has a happy record in Scotland with a prior win in the bet365 Handicap Hurdle at Kelso two years back, Flash Collonges can deliver a trip at a shortening 14/1 with William Hill.

     

    Cap Du Nord

    J: Nick Scholfield, T: Christian Williams

    Looking to win successive Scottish Nationals, Christian Williams has a double shot 12 months on in the form of last year’s runner-up, favourite Kittys Light and Cap Du Nord.

    We are hedging for bigger value with the latter.

    Three years Kittys Light’s senior, the 10yo was an eye-catcher in winning the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot back in February.

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    His only win of the season and a horse who struggles on the firmer turf, the expected rain to come in Ayr should suit well.

    A gelding who will prefer the tackier ground, he won last year’s National Trial at Kempton in the Coral Trophy, when, conveniently, Cap Du Nord beat his rival stablemate at 11/2

    Having ridden just once on Scottish soil in March 2021 when pulled-up, Cap’ will be looking for better favour and has the pedigree to impress.

    Can be snagged at 18/1 with most bookies.

     

    Half Shot

    J: Conor O’Farrell, T: Iain Jardine

    Finally, if you are after a big-price punt, Half Shot might be one to consider given his good form in the land of the Saltire.

    With two wins in six outings this term, Iain Jardine has trained his 9yo to runners-up spot in the last three races – twice at Kelso.

    Having won a Handicap at Perth almost a year to the day, two victories on Scottish shores is a promising history to come into this contest with.

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    Carrying less into this race, this is still a big step-up in trip having going over 3m just one time before – his last outing at Kelso.

    Nevertheless, if he does travel well, he could catch a few off guard.

    Unlike his handicap here, at a weighty 40/1 with Betfred, Half Shot may not have his glass half-full this weekend.