Best Of Bets

Tag: Hukum

  • Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    It’s a great weekend for sports fans. The Ryder Cup is in full swing, another great weekend of Premier League football and the Rugby World Cup continues. Plus, it’s Arc weekend. For two days Europe’s elite head to ParisLongchamp for Europe’s biggest prize named after one of the city’s most famous landmark. Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? And there’s the small matter of the Cambridgeshire too.

    Saturday – Newmarket

    A Pot of Fortuna

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    2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally is a really unfortunate non-runner, as she has been the standout this season. But the race opens up and, despite the market headed by a talented French filly, I think one at a price can nab this. Porta Fortuna has been placed twice in her two Group One races and steps back to a more suitable six furlongs. She’ll appreciate the firmness at Newmarket today and jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on her once again.

    Another filly that will appreciate the quickness of the ground is Symbology. She’s ran green a few times, and didn’t help her cause at Salisbury last time out. She wasn’t too far away in the Lowther, which is the form you have to consider for this race, and Clive Cox does have a decent crop of two-year-olds in his stable. Not without hope at 22/1 (William Hill)

     

    Take Them To Task

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    3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group One) – Task Force @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    As of last night, Task Force has been backed in to single figures. And with good reason. Already a Listed winner by winning the Ripon 2-Y-O Trophy, he is bred to act on the ground.

    He may be by Frankel, but his Dam, Special Duty, won the Cheveley Park Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground. If that’s not an omen for this seventh foal of hers, I don’t know what is. Seven Questions is the next best horse to come out of the race and he can really act to beat the two big guns today.

    Jasour is another I really fancy. He’s proven on firm ground, with two wins including a Group Two on the quick stuff. He disappointed in the Prix Morny and led all the way, which showed he was green on the day. He has won races before from the rear of the field, which may be the way to ride him on the Rowley Mile. Double-figure price at 10/1 (William Hill)

     

    Identify This Winner

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire Heritage H’cap – Dual Identity @ 11/1 (General)

    When it comes to a 35-runner handicap, there shouldn’t be a 7/2 favourite. Ever. So I’ve immediately discounted Greek Order from my thinking for this race. And it didn’t take me long to find my main pick. Dual Identity had a great third in last year’s race and has only risen four pounds up the weights since then. A fantastic performance at Sandown aimed him squarely for this race, and looks in ideal nick to go better this time around.

    Majestic won last year’s event, and in some fashion too. Young Aiden Brooks has been overtaken by Benoit de la Sayette for this year’s crack, and won’t be too far away this time round. He will carry more weight this year, but a mark of 89 is suitable, particularly since he has been in the 90’s all this season.

    His best performance came at Epsom when second to Cadillac on firm ground, so has that in his favour this year too. He could become the first horse since Prince De Galles in 1970 to win the race back to back, 14/1 (Betfred, William Hill) says he doesn’t.

    And three-year-olds begin to come into their own in handicaps at this time of year, so it would be remiss to not back one here, despite the last youngster to win was Lord North in 2019. Terwada for Ed Walker looks interesting after a rather a good season in the form book. His first big runner handicap at York was a baptism of fire, finishing in the top half of the field.

    He’ll have to rely on a nine length win in a maiden to win here, but he’s only five pounds higher than his previous winning mark for a horse continuously improving. 18/1 (General) is a price worth having.

     

    Sunday – ParisLongchamp

    Rewrite the History Huk-s

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    3:05 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group One) – Hukum @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The last horse that was above the age of six was Motrico in 1932. The last horse to win from stall 14 was Golden Horn’s miracle win in 2014. The stats are firmly against him. But I think stats have their place. I rely on stats all the time, but when you fall in love with a horse like Hukum you can’t escape it.

    A winner over further, a tough a ready winner when he won the King George in July, he looks set for the race. He’s been kept fresh and this was the clear aim, in what could be his last race in his career. He might not go down as one of the greats, but if he wins he’ll certainly be popular.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Huk, Line And Sinker

    Four to Follow might not be in the best of form, but last week Savethelastdance, saved our blushes and this week we start anew. It’s a cracking card at Ascot, with a King George to savour, and York is also in the limelight too. Let’s see if we can Prosper for Gold up North and Huk a Bara-load of money at Ascot. Here’s this week’s four to follow…

     

    Ascot

     

    PURPLE REIGN

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    3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Baradar @ 7/1 (William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    As soon as I looked at the declarations on Thursday morning, my attention was immediately on him. Baradar has been one of the handicap horses to follow this season, but he’s not paid the dividends. But this looks like the race for him to do it. He’s finally off his mark of 97 and dropped a pound to 96 and has first-time cheeckpieces on, which is always a positive. Conditions are ideal, given how well he ran in the mud in the Lincoln. Plus a wide stand-side draw is boosting his chances further.

    Further down the market, our old friend Escobar is in this race for David O’Meara. The man from Malton (well Upper Helmsley) loves a big Ascot handicap and has the eye-catching booking of Frankie Dettori. He’s been dropping in the weights since his last win over C&D in October, and is down to his last winning mark. Ground conditions will be similar and a good each-way play at 16/1 (William Hill)

     

    LET’S HUK’EM

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    3:40 – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – HUKUM @ 5/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Betfred)

    My colleague Neil Levrett has given you a comprehensive guide to the big race, and mentioned that Hukum won’t like the ground too much. But with little rain forecast, and a prevailing wind I think the ground could dry out to good ground by the off time. But to win this race you need stamina, and what the two three-year-olds lack is stamina. Hukum has won over further, and on similar goings. Ratings go out of the window, and the form that Hukum has can put him over the rest of the field.

    Hamish is another horse I can fully get behind in the each-way market. Hamish has plenty of stamina, winning over a mile-and-six last time out. And, as mentioned before, stamina is crucial. C&D winner back in October is also a tick. But he isn’t a Group One horse, and his best success can often be found around Group Three. But with stamina, ground and trainer in form, there’s nothing stopping him causing a shock at 50/1 (General)

     

    York

     

    GIMME GIMME THE GOLD

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    2:40 – Sky Bet Dash H’cap – Aberama Gold @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Aberama Gold has been supremely well handicapped and can build on her fifth last time out up at Ayr. Mark Winn is one of my favourite jockeys at the moment, and his crucial three pound claim can make the difference. With three pounds taken off, a winning mark of 85 comes into play. O’Meara will know that and also will know that he can perform on any sort of ground. A wide draw will help too and puts Aberama Gold closest to the money.

    Tim Easterby is another who likes to get involved with the big handicaps and has a decent hand here. Hyperfocus is the one that I’m intrigued in, as he’s great on anything with soft in the going, and a mark of 94 is doable, particularly when he finished second in a York sprint on the same mark two years ago. 16/1 (Boylesports) is too bigger price to ignore.

     

    WALKING AWAY, WITH IT

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    3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group Two) – My Prospero @ Evs (10Bet, BetUK)

    William Haggas will have has this race lined up more than seven days in advance for My Prospero. We’ve seen the Haggas team have a bit of a rise and fall this season, not producing winners at Ascot, but starting to get back on track. He ain’t giving up. You have to rewind back to 2013 when he last won this race, but York is in his DNA. My Prospero will love the ground, and can build on his two Group One runs this season, by dropping down a grade. If he doesn’t win, I shall be suffering from Insomnia for weeks.

    In other news Craig David is performing afterwards (spot the references above)

    The very best of luck!

  • King George VI betting lowdown: Auguste Rodin leads star cast

     

    As Qatar Glorious Goodwood lingers in the near distance next week, first, Saturday sees King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes at Ascot.

    Set to become one of the highlights of the flat season – despite the latest withdrawal of Desert Crown – the Group 1 marquee contest over 1m4f pits many of this campaign’s star turns against one another.

    So who are the main contenders for this weekend’s big clash?

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    Auguste Rodin – 10/3 Betfred

    As the rain has continued to dribble down this week, so too have the chances of Auguste Rodin in the King George betting stakes.

    Now installed as the likely pre-race favourite, punters are fully bought in to his run in the 2000 Guineas as being nothing more than a blip.

    Indeed, since that no-show at Newmarket in May, a landmark Derby double either side of the Irish Sea has confirmed the Irish contender’s calibre.

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    This will be the first run-out at Ascot for the son of Deep Impact, which could raise a few questions.

    However, with three Group 1 wins to his name, Auguste Rodin will love the going and with a little more rain on Saturday, would be the rightful market leader.

     

    King of Steel – 11/4 BetVictor

    Despite having lost favour in the markets, King of Steel could, though, live up to his name and challenge.

    A glorious winner of the King Edward last time out, one of the younger runners on the slate will hope youth can prevail.

    Just four career races leave a certain dash of uncertainty and beaten twice by Auguste Rodin, this particular King has much to prove to take the crown.

    Still waiting for a marquee win, could trip number five be fantastic?

    His victory margin on his prior trip to Berkshire suggests a big showing is possible.

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    Hukum – 9/2 William Hill

    The two lead runners are followed by Shadwell hopeful, Hukum.

    Having established himself with a Group 2 win at Meydan in early 2022, Jim Crowley rode the Owen Burrows-trained 5yo to victory in last year’s Coronation Cup.

    Returning from a year-long absence at Sandown in May, Hukum is one of few runners who can claim a win over Desert Crown.

    Three of the last four winning trips have all been on the good however, so might there be a slight doubts over his chances in just a second run this season?

     

    Emily Upjohn – 9/2 PariMatch

    Upstaged by the dominant Paddington in the Coral Eclipse last time out, Emily Upjohn will look for a return to winning ways.

    Not only that, the lone filly in the race won at Ascot on her last run in Berkshire on QIPCO Champions Day at the end of last term.

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    As Frankie Dettori returns after missing the trip to Sandown, that factor should not be played down.

    Flat last in this race 12 months back, Emily will be keen for redemption but the ground might just scupper her chances.

    Nevertheless, in the pack of the elite front-runners, Emily Upjohn can make her mark with a third Group 1 win.

     

    Pyledriver – 15/2 William Hill

    The story of this bay continues to delight fans across the board.

    Coming from rags to riches, a 6yo shunned for being an awkward type, Pyledriver has rewarded his owners and how.

    His erratic win – which prompted a lengthy steward’s enquiry – of the Hardwicke was rather part-and-parcel for this rebellious horse, but the facts show William Muir and Chris Grassick get the best at Ascot.

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    Yet, the winner of this race 12 months ago, Pyledriver may find the turf a lot less sure than in previous trips.

    However, with no less than three Group 1 victories to boast, this very awkward but very likeable character can retain his crown.

     

    Westover – 12/1 BoyleSports

    Fresh from a win at Saint Cloud, the oft-forgotten Westover has a more than decent shot at a good price.

    Ralph Beckett has trained his 4yo to back-to-back runner-ups beforehand – beaten only by Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup on Derby Weekend.

    It’s also worth remembering that Westover lost only to Longchamp-bound Equinox in the Dubai Classic earlier this term.

    Fifth in this contest last year, the turf should be a quite a bit softer which may suit the British colt.

    Having started the week at 20s, Westover may go off at half that; a worthy consideration.

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    Luxembourg – 14/1 QuinnBet

    Nor can the final of the lead seven, Tattersalls Gold Cup winner, Luxembourg.

    A 2/1f for last month’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes, another Aidan O’Brien’s hopeful here has won just one of his last four outings.

    That might explain the double-figure tag.

    However, as the best of the rest to the stunning Mostahdaf at Royal Ascot, Luxembourg’s chances are being overlooked.

    Just a second run at Ascot this weekend, Luxembourg has already proved his liking for these surroundings; a step up by just one place in result will see a mighty, but not wholly unexpected result.

     

    The outsider: Hamish – 66/1 Betfred

    The remaining four of Saturday’s King George betting field will fetch a tidy value upwards of 25s, but somewhat hard to grasp at 66/1, Hamish looks a massive shout.

    A horse who has three outings at Ascot, Pat Dobbs rode the 7yo to victory in the Cumberland Lodge last October and here looks set to hand the reins to Tom Marquand.

    With four wins in his last six, the races the gelding of William Haggas has lost have seen a runner-up double.

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    All four victories since May 2022 have come on the soft or good to soft with the ground set to dry up somewhat before the weekend.

    Claiming the Ormonde Stakes at the May Festival in Chester, Hamish comes here with John Smith’s Silver Cup bragging rights also.

    Surely, he has a chance of running a huge race?