Best Of Bets

Tag: british champions day

  • Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    It’s the flat’s biggest finale, and what a send off in store! This year sees the very best of the British and European Champions battle each other out one final time. We’ve a mouthwatering battle in the Champion Stakes and competitive action in both the Sprint Stakes and Balmoral Handicap. Let’s get stuck into Five of the best races of the year.

     

    Nothing But Love

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    1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Unequal Love @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    There’s one interesting trend with this race. No former Group One winners have a good record in the race. In fact, Muhaarar was the last horse to win a sprint Group One and this race. Kinross did win the G1 Prix la Foret over seven before winning this, but not won a Group One six furlong sprint.

    The other factor is repeat winners of the race are very very rare. No horse has done it recently, and due to the competitive nature of the race. It’s unlikely it will happen again.

    It’s soft ground overall and Unequal Love looks like the best candidate to take this race out. She has soft ground form when breaking her maiden over a soft six furlongs at Ripon. She also finished a close fourth on soft ground at the end of last season, before winning on April good ground this year. After winning the Wokingham at the Royal meeting in June, she holds every chance.

    Each-way plays are useful in this race, with James’s Delight the perfect example. A fantastically progressive horse, who loves a bog. He won on heavy ground at Pontefract by six-and-a-half lengths. Ryan Moore gets the leg up, having won on him in the Macmillan Sprint at York back in June. Definite value at 14/1 (William Hill).

    Elite Status didn’t hit the heights in the Haydock Sprint Cup, but wrong tactics let him down that day when he led the field. He does like to be prominent but wants to sit behind the pace. He won twice at the start of the season and has soft ground form from his two-year-old season. Definite top-three chance. 14/1 (General).

     

    Back To Happiness

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    2:35 – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    After her no show in the Prix Royallieu, Content is back up to her perfect distance of a mile-and-a-half. She’s versatile with her ground too, after winning on soft ground as a two-year-old. With weight being given to her, she’s the top rated horse in the race and experienced at Group One level. Draw nine on the round course might not suit her, but Ryan Moore can produce rabbits out of his hat at will.

    I quite like the chances of some of the European runners today, particularly Quantanemera. She beat Arrest on very soft (soft) ground at Deauville over 12 furlongs, which stands her in good stead. On her form, it looks like the softer the better for her and against the girls, she can be dangerous. Interesting at 15/2 (General).

     

    Fan-a French Fillies

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    3:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Tamfana @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    Tamfana was due her Group One a couple of weeks ago at Newmarket, and she won it against experienced opposition on soft ground. Dominant can’t explain her performance any better. Now up against the boys too, I think she’s got a massive chance. Particularly with three-year-olds 8/10 in the last ten renewals. One of the top rated, and a trainer in form, it’s worth taking on the favourite.

    Another one to note is Prague. He won in spectacular fashion at the Cambridgeshire meeting in the Joel Stakes, against two mud lovers. He finally found his conditions last time out and will have them here again. After making a big step up to Group Two level last time, will he handle the bigger step up to the top level. He’s got ground and form on his side, so is worth having. 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    Calan The Dragon

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    3:55 – Champion Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Calandagan @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    After an incredible season, are there any holes to poke at Economics. Yes. Is one and only two-year-old run came on heavy ground, which resulted in him finishing fourth. And he hasn’t run on any surface similar to that this season.

    Calandagan on the other hand has been ultra consistent. Firstly, he won by six lengths at Ascot which is a big plus. Secondly, he was best of the rest in the International Stakes, closing the gap on City Of Troy to a length, and finished three lengths in front of Ghostwriter. He’s won on softer ground in France over 10 furlongs, which is another big positive. He’s drawn to the inside of the course which is another positive. He can become a worthy champion, and follow in Sealiway’s footsteps on British Champions Day.

    Royal Rhyme presents fantastic each-way value. If you look a little more closely at his inconsistent form, bar the International Stakes, he has always finished close to the finish. He was only three lengths away in a bunch finish in the Irish Champion Stakes and the best part of two lengths last in a tight York Stakes. His only win this season came over ten furlongs at Sandown on soft ground, and he’s been waiting for these conditions all season. Far too big at 50/1 (General).

     

    One For The North

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    4:35 – Balmoral Handicap – Lattam @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    One more trip down the Royal Mile this season and prepare for a slog. Which will suit Lattam down to the ground. Formerly with William Haggas, he won the Irish Lincolnshire on soft to heavy ground. He finished second in this year’s Lincoln at Doncaster, and best form comes on soft ground. He’s drawn on the, traditional, bias on the far side. He’s back to a mark of 95, the same as his second in the Lincoln. Expect him to go near.

    Bopedro is never far away in these handicaps. A slightly up and down season has seen him finish second and third, latterly in the Ascot Challenge Cup. He was rated 102 on British Champions Day last year, and is down to a six pound lower mark. Best performances for him come with soft in the title, so expect him to run a race true to form. 12/1 (BetVictor).

    And one more for the in form David Menuisier, Toimy Son. He comes into the race, two pounds well in after finishing third in the Cambridgeshire. He seems to have ground versatility, but the majority of Menuisier’s love the soft conditions. Drawn to the far side, he’s got a slight advantage on the soft underfoot. 14/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • British Champions Day | Awaal or nothing – The Top Three

    British Champions Day | Awaal or nothing – The Top Three

    British Champions Day is the annual finale to the Flat turf season here in the UK, and what a year we have had.

    From Mostahdaf’s defiant performance in the Juddmonte International to Paddington’s string of Group 1s; Aidan O’Brien’s two British Classics and Tony Carroll’s Racing League winner, 2023 has experienced plenty of uplifting moments.

    Soft ground is on the menu for British Champions Day this year and with this in mind, three horses stand out as good plays for the season-crowing raceday, so let’s dive in.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Bluestocking @ 8/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Bluestocking is a horse that I have dodged all season, something that has produced good success most of the time, however, that will all change this weekend as she is the one I’m backing in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes.

    Ralph Beckett’s Camelot filly has been a consistent horse for connections thanks to her five consecutive top four performances this season.

    She began her year at Newbury when second by a head to Warm Heart, a subsequent two-time Group 1 winner, in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes.

    Following that, she finished third to Warm Heart again in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground that was probably too quick for her, something that can also be said for her fourth-place effort in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks in August.

    Splitting both of these runs was her second to Savethelastdance in the Group 1 Irish Oaks on soft ground, a race that saw her beat Lumiere Rock and Warm Heart who admittedly didn’t have her ideal conditions.

    Following a slightly disappointing second at Chester last time out, connections have applied first-time cheekpieces and the slower conditions should suit her better than a few others.

    8/1 seems like a good price for a horse who has run into Group 1-level horses all season, many of which are not up against her on Saturday.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Paddington @ 9/4 General – 2pt Win

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    Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I can’t believe Paddington is as big as 9/4 for the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    Admittedly, this is the second-toughest field that the Siyouni colt has taken on all year, but how much is there to worry about regarding his market rivals?

    Tahiyra is a horse he has yet to face this season and in the current form she is in, you can understand her well-fancied nature.

    However, her form with Meditate, Remarquee, and Rogue Millenium is below the level of horses Paddington has battled with this season and trainer Dermot Weld did state at the start of the month that he wanted the ground to be “suitable” and not “too heavy” if Tahiyra was to run, so this week’s deluge hasn’t helped her chances.

    In my eyes, Nashwa is the biggest danger to Aidan O’Brien’s 125-rated three-year-old based on her third to Auguste Rodin in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes and her second in the Group 1 Juddmonte International.

    Although she finished ahead of Paddington at York, I think those placings can be reversed as this was Paddington’s first start on good to firm ground and he was racing just 21 days after a gruelling effort in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes on soft ground.

    Furthermore, Paddington kept close to Mostahdaf’s powerful gallop in second place for the majority of the contest whereas Nashwa bided her time in third and picked up the pieces late on, so she had an easier route through.

    With the benefit of nearly two months on the sidelines, Paddington will be a fresh horse and everything in his breeding suggests slow ground should be no problem, making the 9/4 about him an attractive price.

    4:25 Ascot – Awaal @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    The Balmoral Handicap is always a tough race to decipher and this year’s soft going on Ascot’s straight course doesn’t help the puzzle at all.

    Plenty in here hold interesting profiles and should handle the ground – The Gatekeeper, Baradar, and Bennetot as examples – but Awaal at 9/1 is the one who has turned my head.

    Simon & Ed Crisford have experienced a season to remember in 2023 thanks to recent victories in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, Group 2 Rockfel Stakes, and Group 3 Prix Quincey as well as the Group 1 accolades picked up with Vandeek.

    Awaal is unlucky not to have landed another big pot for the yard having placed in the Lincoln, Royal Hunt Cup, Bunbury Cup, and Guisborough Stakes.

    Despite his consistently good performances, the handicapper has looked leniently upon the Lope De Vega gelding as his official rating of 104 looks more than fair considering the horses he has run into.

    The likes of Migration, Jimi Hendrix, Sonny Liston, and Biggles have all finished ahead of him this year, and although a few of these reappear on Saturday, Awaal should have the ability to win a race like this off his current mark whereas Migration and Sonny Lison have a few extra pounds in the handicap to carry.

    With conditions set to suit, Awaal could be dangerous breaking out stall 22 and if he gets a clear route, he looks a fair each-way bet at 9/1.