Argentina vs Croatia World Cup semi preview and tips

After a weekend of quarter-final drama, we are down to the semi-finals in the 2022 FIFA World Cup as Tuesday and Wednesday evening will see the line-up for Sunday’s final in Lusail take shape.

Who will make the showpiece finale this weekend but more importantly, what value do we have our eyes on?

Kicking us off, Argentina face Croatia in Lusail where both sides will of course be hoping to return to in five days’ time.

When the draw was made some months ago, this was initially projected to be the ultimate last four heavyweight, South American clash between Argentina versus Brazil. However, after Croatia made it back-to-back wins on penalties, Zlatko Dalic’s men put a spanner in the works to stun the Canarinha and send a nation into tears – also leaving many other hopes dashed of seeing a titanic tussle between two fierce rivals.

Croatia might have clawed and rather scratched their way through the tournament to this point, but Vatreni have built a durability that is hard to match. Standing before them though, them lie a country who believe it is their time to lift the famous trophy for the first time since Mexico ’86.

For La Albiceleste, not only is Lionel Messi two wins away from his crowning moment of destiny in winning the World Cup, but the man who is reportedly close to joining Inter Miami in the near future is just one behind Kylian Mbappe in the race for the Golden Boot.

Messi has scored in all but two games this tournament and will be hunting for goals to lead his country into the final. SkyBet’s double up boost from evens to 2/1 for Messi to score in 90 mins is quite the dangling carrot for punters. The alternative to look at would be for Messi to have 1+ SOT in each half at 9/4 with PaddyPower.

It is becoming something of a cliché to say ‘tight contest’ in Qatar but for the Croatians, we really cannot rule the chances of a third game on the bounce to be decided from 12 yards. Indeed, if it did get that far, it might be hard to back against them. Therefore, backing Croatia at 10/1 with Bet365 to reach the final via penalties should not be sniffed at.

For those looking at a handicap bet, Croatia can be had at +0.5 at 5/4 with Sporting Index, meaning a draw at full time will be a winning flutter.

We shouldn’t rule out a goal in normal time either for the Croats but we might look at the individual shots on target market in particular. The two players we are singling out are the foraging Borna Sosa at left-back and the impressing Josko Gvardiol at centre-back. Whilst the latter will be a threat from set-pieces, Sosa has the trickery to get in behind or to cut in on goal. Both players are 10/3 and 13/2 for just 1+ SOT respectively, with SkyBet.

Finally, if we look at the cards markets, on paper, this does not look like it might be an ill-tempered game but as we saw in the quarter-finals, the Argentines have still a nasty streak within them. The much-criticised Antonio Mateu Lahoz took charge of the Netherlands game and dished out no less than 14 yellows together with just the second red of the competition and here, the equally card-happy Daniele Orsato will take his turn in the middle for a third time in Qatar.

His previous two outings have seen at least five cards and with the stakes high in Lusail, punting on over 4.5 cards at evens with Betfair will have every chance of doubling your dosh.

Match context, form and key team considerations

Argentina arrive with momentum built on attacking fluency and a defensive unit that has tightened at key moments, while Croatia’s route has relied on experience and tactical discipline. Both teams bring contrasting styles that shape likely match dynamics and market pricing.

Context matters for markets such as match odds, goals and cards because Argentina will be expected to control possession and Croatia may aim to frustrate and counter; this influences value in handicaps and player props. Always consider team news and late fitness updates before engaging with markets.

Argentina attacking threats and Messi’s role importance

Messi remains the primary creative and finishing outlet and his minutes, position and set-piece duties directly affect several markets including anytime scorer and shots-on-target props. When bookmakers boost Messi-related markets there is intrinsic commercial demand, so compare odds across firms rather than assuming a single price is best.

Beyond Messi, look at full-backs and midfield runners who can supply crosses and second-phase chances; these players can influence match flow and create overs in shots and corners markets. Monitoring starting XI announcements is essential, because a change to a more conservative XI would impact goal expectancy.

Croatia’s defensive resilience and set-piece danger

Croatia have built tournament progress on a compact midfield shield and the precision of set-pieces, with players such as Gvardiol offering aerial threat from dead-ball situations. Their penalty shootout pedigree also alters the implied probability in markets such as “reach final via penalties”.

When modelling outcomes, factor in Croatia’s ability to slow games and force late decision-making that might increase card counts and substitutions, which can make markets like over cards or late goals more appealing. Odds for Croatia to progress on penalties will often carry a premium reflecting that history.

Betting markets to consider and value angles

Markets worth comparing include match odds, Asian handicaps, shots on target, set-piece goals and card totals; each offers different edges depending on match narrative and team selection. Value emerges by comparing odds, checking where bookmakers limit stakes and spotting markets where public money has pushed the price away from calculated expected value.

Look for relative value in alternative markets such as Messi to score in any half, Croatia +0.5 handicap or player SOT markets for Gvardiol and Sosa; these can provide lower-variance exposure than backing outright outcomes. Use bookmaker markets as tools for risk management rather than as short-term profit guarantees.

Player props, shot stats and set-piece bets analysis

Shot-based props are useful in matches where one team dominates possession but the other remains dangerous on transitional chances; Messi and Argentina’s wide players typically populate these markets. For Croatia, defenders and wing-backs with licence to attack create set-piece and SOT opportunities that may be underpriced relative to their actual involvement.

When analysing props, consider expected goals (xG) trends, recent minutes, and substitution patterns; these factors determine the likelihood of a player recording SOT or a goal. Keep stake sizes sensible and treat multiple correlated props carefully because dependencies increase risk.

Odds comparison across UK bookmakers and markets

Comparing odds across UK bookmakers helps you locate small edges and identify boosted prices and enhanced offers that move market value temporarily. Use comparison tools to check both major firms and smaller licensed operators for the best available price before placing a responsible wager.

Responsible gambling guidance and age restriction notice

This site is for users aged 18 and over only and betting should be treated as entertainment, not a way to make money. If you choose to bet, set limits, play within your means and seek help if gambling stops being fun or becomes a problem.

How to use bookmaker offers without undue pressure

Offers can be useful for value exploration but avoid staking more because of promotions and do not chase losses; always read T&Cs carefully to understand eligible markets and withdrawal rules. You can explore current bookmaker offers through our comparison tools if you choose to bet responsibly.

Match tempo, substitutions and late-game scenarios

Substitutions and game tempo often decide whether matches end in a settled result or late drama; Croatia’s experience makes them adept at managing stoppage-time situations. Consider in-play strategies that account for possible late goals and additional time events rather than static pre-match conjecture.

In-play markets such as next-team-to-score or late-card specials often offer reactive value to match events, but they require disciplined bankroll management and an understanding of how momentum and tactical changes affect probability. Keep stakes small for reactive in-play plays and avoid emotional decisions.

Statistical indicators you should check before betting

Key indicators include recent xG figures, shots on target per 90, set-piece conversion rates and foul counts; these metrics provide objective context beyond headline form lines. Bookmakers price markets with access to similar data, so your edge comes from combining stats with qualitative knowledge such as team motivation and fatigue.

Match-day factors and environmental considerations

Pitch condition, referee tendencies and rest days can subtly shape outcomes and market pricing, particularly in tournaments late stages where recovery matters. Check official team sheets and weather reports on match day as these factors can influence both starting line-ups and tactical approaches.

Staking suggestions and risk management principles

Always set a fixed percentage of your bankroll for any wager and avoid overexposure to correlated bets, especially in tournaments where variance is high. Treat betting as entertainment and never stake money you cannot afford to lose, and seek support if you feel control slipping.

Explore our curated list of bookmaker free bet offers to compare current welcome promotions and find the best structured offers if you choose to bet responsibly.

You can also view casino bonus offers and terms on our dedicated page to compare entitlements and wagering conditions with a clear head.

Frequently asked questions about Argentina v Croatia preview

Can betting markets on Argentina v Croatia be trusted?

Bookmaker markets reflect aggregated opinions and risk-management rather than certainty, so use them as one input in your analysis. Always compare prices and avoid staking solely because a market looks popular.

What responsible gambling steps should bettors consider?

Set deposit and time limits, only use money you can afford to lose and take regular breaks from betting activity. If gambling causes harm, contact UK support organisations for free, confidential help.

How do player prop markets work for World Cup games?

Player props pay out based on specific events such as goals, shots on target or assists and are priced using expected involvement and past performance. Compare props across bookmakers and consider minutes played and role before betting.

Are penalty shootout markets commonly good value bets?

Shootout markets incorporate historical probabilities and team tendencies; they can offer value where one side has an established advantage or pressure dynamics change odds. Treat such markets as higher variance and size stakes accordingly.

Where can I compare bookmaker odds and offers safely?

Use licensed UK comparison tools and the BestOfBets comparison pages to view regulated operator offers side-by-side. Always confirm the operator holds a UK Gambling Commission licence and read full terms and conditions.

What should younger adults consider before placing a wager?

Bets are for those aged 18 and over only and younger adults should refrain from gambling until they meet the legal age. If you are new to betting, educate yourself on odds, markets and responsible play before staking real money.