With three weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, some are running out of time to find an appropriate prep race. But Kempton could provide a last chance with three Grade Two races and a big-money handicap too. Plus, we look ahead to the Grand National with the Eider Chase and the Winter Derby moves up to Southwell from Lingfield, to complete this week’s Four To Follow.
Kempton
Patron Pay Day
2:27 – Pendil Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Le Patron @ 9/2 (William Hill)
The Scilly Isles’ was his first no-show of the season, but it’s clear that he wasn’t suited by the front-running tactics of Nickle Back. Because of that, his jumping display was quite poor. With no identified pace in the field, it should be back to normal for Le Patron, who is a two-time winner at this level and will feel at home going right-handed at Kempton. Even with a five-pound penalty, he’s still the best rated horse and should be taken seriously.
The Wizard Of Odds
3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 13/2 (Boylesports)
There’s a key bit of form for this race which comes from November. The Ascot Silver Cup’s top four horses have all won since. Two feature in this race today, including Blackjack Magic. He hasn’t set the world alight since winning the Badger Beers at Wincanton, but he’s handicapped back to a nice mark of 138. This was the same mark he was back in November, when making a mistake at the last when running a cracker. He as every chance of running another again.
Unanswered Prayers doesn’t look the most attractive on recent form. A fall and an unseat, bookended by two fifths don’t’ make it for good reading. However, he ran a big race when battling for second at the last fence with Grand National Trial winner Yeah Man. His form for the next race at Ascot also holds up too. He’s off the same mark for the Sodexo Gold Cup and can run a massive race at a massive price, 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).
Newcastle
Duck For Cover
2:08 – Eider Handicap Chase – Fenland Tiger @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)
Fun fact: and Eider is a duck. But today is about the Tiger. Everyone may be looking towards Anglers Crag, but the handicapper has had a field day raising him a massive 11lbs after a hattrick of wins. That will be hard to overcome, when he’s stepping up in class too.
Fenland Tiger can take advantage of that massive rise in the weights, and the heavy ground up at Gosforth Park. He’s likes extreme distances, winning over three-and-a-quarter miles at Doncaster at the start of the year. He faces another rise of seven pounds, but with the ground as it is he has to be favoured a little too big of a price.
Tommie Beau is another who can take advantage of the boggy conditions. He’s won two ‘Nationals’ already (Durham and Southern) and second in the Sussex National too. Heavy ground + extreme distance suits him to a tee and the mark he’s been given won’t trouble him. Nice even price at 8/1 (General).
One rain lover at a bigger price is Rath An Iuir. Despite making a big jump from class four to class two, he ran in last year’s Eider and is on a three-pound lower mark this time around. Heavy ground helped him in his win at Kelso over the Festive period and sneaks in at the bottom end of the weights. Each-way claims at 12/1 (General).
Southwell
A Last Hurrah?
3:20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group Three) – Lord North @ 13/8 (General)
Lord North has been a world class horse, but we haven’t seen him since he won the Dubai Turf at the World Cup Festival last year. It’s clear that John & Thady Gosden want him to come here, before one last big international plunder. He’s 11lbs clear of the rest on level weights, and it makes little to no sense why he’s odds-against.
The very best of luck!
Cheltenham Festival and Spring Jumps Weekend Preview
This expanded preview offers practical angles for the big mid‑March jump meetings and the key prep races discussed above.
We focus on form lines, ground, weights and sensible betting considerations for UK readers interested in the Cheltenham build‑up.
Form, ground and handicaps to note this week
Across Kempton, Newcastle and Southwell the main themes are stamina tests, soft ground and penalties that can reshuffle the formbook quickly.
Understanding how those factors interact with trainers, jockeys and recent runs helps separate warmers from true Cheltenham contenders.
Kempton runners to watch before Cheltenham Festival
Kempton’s right‑hand track suits horses that jump well and travel, which is why proven two‑mile and intermediate novices with good jumping records are favoured.
Pay attention to Le Patron’s tactical adaptability and Blackjack Magic’s mark; both offer clues on whether they’ll still be competitive under penalties at the Festival.
How ground conditions change race chances at Kempton
Kempton can ride quicker than expected when drained, but persistent rain turns tests into stamina contests that expose weaker finishers.
Compare a horse’s career record on soft and heavy going and favour those who have won or placed over similar conditions and distances.
Key takeaways from the Coral Trophy handicap chase
Handicaps like the Coral Trophy often hinge on recent form, recovery from mistakes and ability to handle a testing, often gruelling, finish.
Blackjack Magic’s rating suggests he’s on a workable mark and Unanswered Prayers offers each‑way value if jumping issues aren’t repeated.
Assessing weights, penalties and their effects on form
Penalties can transform the race dynamics; a five‑pound rise may be manageable for a high‑class horse but fatal for an improver stepping up in grade.
Look for horses with proven form off similar marks and consider whether a recent win resulted from soft ground or a weaker field.
Newcastle Eider form and stayers to consider
The Eider is a specialist event that rewards proven stayers and mud lovers, so judge entries on historical stamina, seasonal peaks and weight relief.
Fenland Tiger and Tommie Beau fit that profile, but beware horses rising sharply in class or burdened by big weight hikes after rapid wins.
Responsible betting advice for jump racing supporters
This site is for readers aged 18 and over only; betting should be entertainment and never considered a way to solve financial problems.
Set limits, bankroll sensibly, and use bookmaker tools such as deposit limits and reality checks; if you’re concerned seek help from recognised support services.
Southwell’s Winter Derby preview and betting angles
Lord North’s class is clear and the step to Southwell suits solid, well‑handled older horses returning from a long break when the ground is suitable.
When assessing short priced favourites, check for race‑fitness indicators such as a recent spin or a schooling run to ensure sharpness.
Common questions about Cheltenham and jump racing
Below are concise answers to frequent queries from readers planning bets or wanting to understand the form more clearly.
What should I look for in a Cheltenham prep run?
Prioritise runs that show a horse can handle the distance and ground, improve with racing and have clean jumping under pressure.
How important is heavy ground for stayers in the Eider?
Heavy ground significantly boosts stayers who have shown form in mud; horses with prior wins in heavy conditions are best placed.
When do weights and penalties most affect outcomes?
Penalties bite hardest in competitive handicaps when horses are closely matched; novice chases can also be vulnerable when a winner carries added weight.
Is Lord North a genuine Winter Derby contender now?
Lord North’s class and weight advantage make him a strong contender, but his fitness after a long layoff should be confirmed by connections before backing.
What form patterns suggest a Cheltenham improver?
Progressive novice chasers, horses stepping up in trip with stamina to spare and those switching from flat to jumps successfully often improve at festivals.
Where can I compare bookie free bet offers safely?
You can explore current bookmaker offers and compare free bets on our dedicated comparison page to find terms that suit you responsibly.
How do I bet responsibly during big racing festivals?
Decide stakes before you bet, avoid chasing losses and use bookmaker responsible‑gambling tools; treat bets as entertainment rather than income.
You can explore our recommended bookmaker offers and current free‑bets on our comparison page at https://bestofbets.com/free-bets.
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Frequently asked questions about this racing weekend
How can I tell if a prep race indicates Cheltenham form?
Look for clear improvement between runs, the ability to handle similar ground and a performance that is corroborated by other horses improving since.
Should I prioritize trainer form or jockey bookings this close to the Festival?
Both matter; trainers set targets and prepare fitness, while jockey bookings indicate confidence—combine both for a fuller picture.
Are heavy‑ground specialists worth higher stakes?
Heavy‑ground specialists have value in suitable conditions, but always size stakes to bankroll and avoid escalating bets after losses.
Can penalties from recent wins rule a horse out entirely?
Not always; some horses carry penalties well, but a steep rise in weight after multiple wins can expose them against seasoned handicappers.
Where can I find trustworthy betting comparisons for UK bookmakers?
Our free bets comparison pages list bookmaker terms clearly so you can compare offers and make an informed choice responsibly.
Who should I contact if I have concerns about gambling behaviour?
If you’re worried about your gambling, seek support from UK organisations such as GamCare and use bookmaker support tools; remember this site is for 18+ users only.
