Chepstow Day Preview: National Hunt Season Opener Tips
Expert Analysis and Betting Considerations for Chepstow
The curtain-raiser at Chepstow marks the practical start of the national hunt season and offers early pointers for staying chasers and novice chasers alike.
This preview expands on the race comments and selections featured above while emphasising responsible, 18+ only betting guidance and practical ways to use bookmaker comparisons.
Why Aye Right appeals in veterans chase conditions
Aye Right shapes as a strong proposition in a veterans’ chase where experience and stamina trump raw speed, especially on rain-softened ground.
His reduced mark and proven record on testing going make him a credible each-way or win contender when bookmakers price him up around 4/1.
Chianti Classico: form, trainer notes and chase prospects
Chianti Classico is unexposed over fences but carries useful course form and a trainer who clearly rates him, which is why a novices’ handicap chase is a prudent starting route.
The recent wind operation and stable momentum are positive indicators, but connections and market moves should be watched closely on the day.
Politacus and Fergal O’Brien’s method for early-season jumps
Politacus has shown good schooling and bumper form with stamina, and O’Brien’s comments suggest she could progress quickly over fences this season.
In races featuring expensive point-to-point graduates and strong yard support, sizing stakes conservatively is sensible until we see a clear performance pattern.
Race conditions, ground and how they affect chances
Chepstow’s likely rain-softened ground will benefit proven mudlovers and stamina-heavy profiles while disadvantaging horses that need good to firm underfoot.
Runners returning from wind-ops or long gaps should be assessed in line with fitness reports and official declarations rather than headline odds alone.
Trainer form trends and recent winners to note
Look for trainers with multiple recent winners at similar tracks and trip ranges; small-sample spikes in form can indicate a yard ready to capitalise early in the season.
Fergal O’Brien and Kim Bailey both have credible recent form patterns to support market confidence but always cross-check riding bookings and declared jockeys.
Interpreting official ratings and course form lines
Official ratings offer a baseline for assessing class drops or rises, but give extra weight to direct course form and recent staying performances over comparable trips.
A horse dropping in grade or returning to a previously successful course often represents a sustainable angle for early-season handicaps.
Responsible betting advice and useful bookmaker comparisons
Betting is for adults aged 18 and over and should be treated as entertainment; never stake more than you can afford to lose and avoid chasing losses.
You can explore bookmaker comparisons and free bet offers to find the best available odds and terms, but use them responsibly and be aware of affiliate links on comparison pages.
Race-by-race selections and commentary from original post
Yes, there is Group 1 action at Newmarket on Friday, but tomorrow is the Chepstow jumps opener and I can’t contain my excitement.
Final touches before tomorrow’s @UnibetRacing Jump Season Opener. pic.twitter.com/BtGrkcQ0D9
— Chepstow Racecourse (@Chepstow_Racing) October 12, 2023
In isolation, the action at Chepstow wouldn’t knock your socks off, but it’s the wider picture of the ‘proper’ national hunt season starting today that I can’t stop thinking about.
Ahead of flag-fall at the Welsh track, today’s The Top Three includes three horses to consider on the curtain-raiser of the winter jumps campaign.
1:35 Chepstow – Aye Right @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win
I always find veteran chases interesting contests to try and find a bet in as experienced, lovable characters get to compete against horses of a similar ability at their grand age. What more can you ask for?
The opening race at Chepstow includes a nice flurry of nostalgia and of the 10-runner field, it’s Aye Right that makes the most appeal.
The highest-rated horse in the race is down to a mark of 150 which seems lenient considering he finished second in last year’s Edinburgh Gin Chase when officially rated six pounds higher.
A Russian victory!
Sounds Russian gets the better of brave runner-up Aye Righ to land the feature Edinburgh Gin Chase @KelsoRacecourse for @NRuthJefferson and Callum Bewley 🏇 pic.twitter.com/0SyBeNKPFE
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 22, 2022
The form of Kelso’s feature race of the year has worked out well as the winner, Sounds Russian, finished second to Ahoy Senor in the 2023 Cotswold Chase and is now rated 11 pounds higher and the sixth, Eva’s Oskar, won a valuable Cheltenham handicap two months later.
Speaking of the Cotswold Chase, you don’t have to go back too far through the form book to see Aye Right’s third-place effort in the 2022 renewal behind the two-time Grade 1 winner Chantry House and the lovable Santini.
Chantry House recovers to win the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase
It's a 4,000th winner for JP McManus!
Watch LIVE
📺 @ITV
📱 https://t.co/fkQLQLtgFY#ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/zgC0y8b9EK— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 29, 2022
In a veterans chase like this against some horses who would appreciate better ground, Aye Right will enjoy the rain-softened Chepstow ground and with a healthy first-time-out record on his side, 4/1 seems a fair price.
3:23 Chepstow – Chianti Classico @ 11/4 General – 2pt Win
As someone who lives in Gloucestershire and covers the sport for Gloucestershire Live, it seems fitting that on the elected ‘first day of the national hunt season’, I should put up Chianti Classico for the Andoversford-based Kim Bailey.
I spoke to Bailey at the end of last season and one horse we spoke about was this gelding by Shantou who he holds in high regard at Thorndale Farm, so much so that he ran him in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Unfortunately for connections, he pulled up before the last flight in a messy renewal of the staying novice hurdle, though a vet assessment revealed he had post-race heat stress which could explain parts of the run.
The ultra-progressive Chianti Classico completes the hat-trick this term with victory in the £21,000 @VirginBet Handicap Hurdle for @kimbaileyracing & David Bass @wincantonraces to remain unbeaten over timber 🏇
Good to see Longshanks & Sean Houlihan are OK after their tumble pic.twitter.com/gvA02TLwBg
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 7, 2023
Before that, the six-year-old bolted up on good to soft ground at Wincanton by 24 lengths under David Bass to beat Stoner’s Choice, who went on to win 107 days later for Fergal O’Brien, and the brilliant galloper also has course form on his side thanks to his length-and-a-quarter victory over Henri The Second last October.
With an official rating of 133, it’s interesting that connections are sending him into a novices’ handicap chase tomorrow rather than a standard novice chase on his first start over fences.
With the yard in good form – two winners from eight runners in the last 14 days – and having his first start after a wind-op, Chanti Classico is an unexposed type who should be a cracking chaser this season.
3:58 Chepstow – Politacus @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win
It looks as if the Fergal O’Brien yard is back on song following three winners over the last two days, one of which was an impressive debut over hurdles performance from Kamsinas at Worcester.
With this in mind, taking a swing at Politacus on her first public outing over obstacles doesn’t look like a bad idea.
In what will be the first and final piece of self-promotion in The Top Three, I went down to Ravenswell Farm last week to talk to O’Brien ahead of the season starting and one horse we discussed was his five-year-old mare by Epaulette.
https://twitter.com/ASymondsJourno/status/1711357962432688306
The esteemed trainer explained that he thought her fourth in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at the Aintree Grand National Festival behind stablemate Dysart Enos showed good promise and the stamina she displayed over an extended two-mile trip is something to be excited about.
Therefore, today’s step up in trip to 2m3f should work well and the rain that Chepstow will receive overnight will also benefit her chances.
Taking winner of the finale! Politacus scores stylishly for @OBMRacing and @LiamHarrisonNH at @Ascot… pic.twitter.com/8YaRFOLv5e
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 18, 2023
Furthermore, Politacus has impressed in her schooling work at home and when asked about how good she could be this year, O’Brien said: “If Politacus shows on the track what she has been showing at home, she won’t be a million miles behind [Dysart Enos].”
Today’s task for Politacus won’t be simple thanks to the inclusion of Florencethemachine, a £120,000 purchase for Paul Nicholls, and Similar Story, a £32,000 buy for Suart Coltherd who bolted up by 12 lengths on her last point-to-point start, but my faith in her remains in conditions that should suit.
How to approach markets and in-running opportunities
Pre-race markets often reflect declared rides and stable notes, so look for late money and jockey changes as useful signals without overreacting to a single move.
In-running, target horses that handle galloping tracks and have shown tactical speed; cash-out features should be used sparingly and only as part of a measured staking plan.
Alternatives, each-way angles and value hunting
When favourites look short, seek horses with recent course or distance wins and credible trainer form, or consider each-way coverage where fields are competitive.
Value often appears with horses returning from long breaks where market confidence is low — assess their official rating against campaign context before committing funds.
Practical staking tips for early-season betting
Adopt flat stakes or a small percentage of a defined betting bank; conservative stake sizing protects against variance across the opening fixtures.
Record bets and review results after the card to identify what worked and to refine approaches for mid-week and weekend meetings.
What to watch for on race day declarations
Check non-runners, jockey confirmations and any late equipment changes, as they can materially alter a runner’s chances and available prices.
Be mindful of ground reports published on raceday and compare them with each horse’s past form on similar surfaces.
Using bookmaker comparisons without pressure
Compare odds and bet terms to find fair pricing and promotions, but avoid chasing marginal differences that can lead to overbetting or impulse decisions.
Our comparison tools list reputable operators and free bets for new customers; use them for information rather than encouragement to stake more than planned.
For customers aged 18 and over only — remember to gamble responsibly and seek help if betting stops being fun or turns into a problem.
You can explore current bookmaker offers and compare free bet terms on our free bets page at https://bestofbets.com/free-bets to find the most suitable options responsibly.
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Common questions about betting on Chepstow curtain-raiser
Is betting on early-season jumps races suitable for novices?
Early-season jumps can be unpredictable, so novices should start with small stakes and focus on learning how form and ground interact rather than seeking wins.
How should I size bets for veterans’ chases at Chepstow
Use a conservative staking plan based on a percentage of a defined bankroll and avoid increasing stakes after losses; treat early-season cards as part of longer-term strategy.
Which form lines matter for novices and mares in chases
Course form, recent stamina tests and trainer confidence with novices and mares are key; give extra credit to wins on soft ground if rain is forecast.
How does soft ground influence horses’ chances at Chepstow
Soft or heavy ground tends to favour proven mudlovers and stamina-rich types while disadvantaging speedier animals; check each horse’s past results on similar going.
Where to compare bookmakers and free bet offers responsibly
Use reputable comparison tools that list terms and conditions, and choose offers that fit your planned stake and risk tolerance; never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Who should avoid betting on opening-day jumps cards?
Anyone under 18, those with known gambling problems, or people experiencing financial pressure should avoid betting and seek support if needed.
