The December Gold Cup headlines the Cheltenham December Meeting this weekend, and the card around it is very competitive.
Before we start, here’s a quick review of the P/L prior to this weekend.
With eight points staked on Tingle Creek Weekend, the P/L sits at +4.05pts at an ROI of 51%.
As for yesterday, having calculated the scores on the doors, we made 0.4pts of profit. Yes, the champagne is on ice.
That’s a nice start; all can change, however.
So, let’s dive in.
12:40 Cheltenham – Moon D’Orange @ 25/1 with Paddy Power (3 places) – 1pt EW
There’s one lurking at a big price in the second race, and hopefully he’s got a few pounds up his sleeve.
The horse is Moon D’Orange back under the care of John McConnell after a spell with Fergal O’Brien.
When based in Gloucestershire, he ran at the April meeting over hurdles off 130 on the day Paddy Brennan retired.
I know it’s not gospel, but when speaking to O’Brien post-race, he thought this was the horse that would send Brennan off into retirement, and that’s probably the reason he went off the 4/1 favourite in a hot handicap.
Before that, he beat Emailandy who went on to finish second in the valuable novices’ handicap hurdle at Sandown. After that, he also won at Plumpton and has form with Jingko Blue and Masaccio from Newbury in December.
When with McConnell in 2023, he finished second to Johnnywho at Carlisle in a novice hurdle that produced the recent Kelso winner Whistle Stop Tour.
For a horse that prefers good ground, he stayed on nicely over three miles in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s December Meeting on soft.
Destroytheevidence, who reopposes off 137 tomorrow, finished second, so with a nine-pound difference, there’s hope he’ll reverse that form on better ground.
Kerryhill placed fourth that day as well and he won the Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle subsequently to further frank the form.
Interestingly, he wore cheekpieces at Cheltenham that day, and he also had them on for his Market Rasen success.
They were left off for his Punchestown chase debut and his run at Cheltenham in October, so it’s nice to see them return here.
Although he’s the rank outsider, that’s a fair case made.
1:13 Cheltenham – Coco Mademoiselle @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Coco Mademoiselle was a bet on Haldon Gold Cup Day for the column before connections declared him a non-runner, and while she has a 78-day break to defy, she is an obvious improver off 122.
Dan Skelton is in mighty form currently with a current strike rate of 25%, and that run at Worcester in September will bring her on fitness-wise.
From that race, the third, Weveallbeencaught, ran a solid race behind Lisnamult Lad at the Cheltenham October Meeting to frank the form as well.
As for her other form, she gave seven pounds away to Springtime Promise – a subsequent Grade 2 winner – in a Huntington novice hurdle before she finished the season with a second in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at Ayr.
From that race, Saylavee (3rd) beat the smart Zanahiyr over fences, Ottizzini (4th) bolted up at Ayr in November, and Pink In The Park (5th) won a Listed chase last month.
Off 122, she can easily improve over fences and will strip fitter for her run in September.
1:50 Cheltenham – Gemirande @ 11/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW
With the lack of Pinkerton in the contest, the December Gold Cup is already a loser for me at this stage, but I’m hopeful Gemirande can recover the losses.
He was a part of Venetia Wonderland last month when winning at Ascot off 128, so the handicapper gave him eight pounds for the success.
That seems fairly fine in my book and the two horses who finished behind him – Nocte Volatus and Terresita – had race fitness on their side.
He appreciates better ground and he ran well around the course and distance before when third in a handicap at the 2023 Cheltenham April Meeting.
This is a career-high mark, but he gets in off a featherweight of 10-2 and is interesting here.
2:05 Doncaster – Sail Away @ 12/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW
Over at Doncaster, for my sins, I’m with Sail Away, one of my notorious cliff horses.
He’s back down to his last winning mark of 136, a rating he carried to success on good ground at Ayr in April 2023 when bolting up by 11 lengths.
He jumped the field into submission that day when making all to beat Forward Plan when giving 11 pounds away.
Since then, he’s not had the best time of things, but he finished a good fourth in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase over course and distance off 142 last season.
He also finished 10 lengths behind Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in February which is good form however you look at it.
He had a pipe-opener at Chepstow in October before Harry Skelton held him up at Newbury in November which was a weird tactic. The gallant grey is a notorious front-runner, so the tactics were a surprise before he fell at the fourth-last when travelling well.
The handicapper dropped him two pounds for that effort, which is very kind, and I think he has a solid chance here.
3:35 Cheltenham – Take No Chances @ 6/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
She has top weight to overcome, but Take No Chances is capable of rising to the task in the finale.
She had a tough time of things in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle last time out, though she still finished a creditable fifth alongside Tellherthename.
That isn’t the form to focus on; her comfortable defeat of Hyland at Warwick over three miles last season is the performance highlight as Hyland is rated 14 pounds higher now.
She stays three miles, but she won over two miles at the start of this season and the key to her is good ground.
To my eye, she’s still unexposed in handicaps as there are excuses for her two handicap defeats.
She raced far too wide at Cartmel in May over 3m1f on her sixth start of the season and she finished third at Chepstow on her first start of the season, though that form with Doyen Quest looks attractive now.
